Dave Sez

All ACC

There's only one game left for each ACC team, except for Clemson, who's done. That's a fair enough time to pick an All-ACC team. Conceivably, a player could play himself up or done in that last game, but I'll ignore that possibility, because starting next week, we'll be talking about the ACC and NCAA tourneys.

When picking the All Conference teams, I am a firm believer that you should only use the stats from conference games. Teams play wildly different non-conference schedules and frankly, what you did against East Valley State shouldn't matter.

Unfortunately, I couldn't get my hands on a good source of conference-only stats, so the numbers I ran use the whole season. I will however strongly consider the conference results in my final picks. You'll see below.

First, I want to list the top 20 players in the conference according to their Prouty ratings. The Prouty system is a pretty solid one, as it takes into account all facets of the game - at least all of those that show up in the box score. It also takes into account the team's record in rating players, as a player who scores 15 ppg on a really good team is likely better than a guy who scores 15 ppg on the worst team in the league.

So, here is the top 20 according to Prouty (for the whole season, unfortunately):

Julius Hodge	0.507
Chris Paul	0.504
Jarrett Jack	0.496
Rashad McCants	0.494
Chris Duhon	0.490
JJ Redick	0.482
Shelden Williams	0.479
Raymond Felton	0.477
Luol Deng	0.474
Justin Gray	0.464
Sean May	0.461
Marcus Melvin	0.461
Tim Pickett	0.453
John Gilchrist	0.446
Taron Downey	0.440
Jamaal Levy	0.433
BJ Elder	0.431
Daniel Ewing	0.427
Isma'il Muhammad	0.425
Jawad Williams	0.421

Right off the bat, you can see that this is a pretty good list. It has all the players I think you would consider for the top three teams.

First Team:
I'm going to stick with four of the five that Prouty picked. I'm a bit surprised that Paul is so high, but he really has had a sensational season and he's peaking late. He stays. The guy I'm bumping is Jarett Jack. He was great early in the season, but hasn't been quite as dominant in conference play. I suspect that if I had conference-only stats he wouldn't be in Prouty's top five. He gets replaced by Tim Pickett. Pickett is one of those guys whose contribution isn't always seen in the box score. He scores at opportune times, practically beating GT, Wake and UNC all by himself, and he plays with such passion and enthusiasm that it's addictive. He deserves a spot on the first team.

So, my first team is:
Julius Hodge - best all-around player in the conference
Chris Paul - Phenomenal freshman year
Rashad McCants - Best offensive player
Chris Duhon - A great, great leader this year
Tim Pickett - The most fun player in the league

Second Team: Once again, I'm almost going with Prouty here. Jack slides down to the second team and I'm going to move Justin Gray up. Gray is probably the second most dangerous offensive player in the league, behind only Rashad McCants. He may not do much more than score, but he's damn good at what he does. The guy he leapfrogs is Luol Deng, who has had a great freshman season, but really isn't called on to lead in any particular way at Duke. Duhon runs the show, JJ Redick scores the points and Sheldon Williams controls the interior, leaving Deng (and other Dukies) to do whatever else they can. Deng has shown he is good at everything, but I just don't see putting him this high just yet, especially when three Duke players are already picked.

Felton has taken some well-deserved criticism of late, but this is a season award, and early on, he was as good as any point guard in the country. If he hadn't lost his jump shot, he would have been a shoo-in for first team.

So, my second team:
JJ Redick - will be on lots of people's first team
Jarrett Jack - great young point guard
Sheldon Williams - best big man in the league
Raymond Felton - another great young point
Justin Gray - playing great at the end of the year

Third team:
The five guys left from Prouty's top fifteen are a pretty good group. My only change is to move BJ Elder up. Many people will probably rank him higher, because he is the highest scoring Yellow Jacket, and he's had a few big games. But he doesn't really offer them much other than scoring, and in lots of games I've watched, he seemed to have little impact on the outcome. He's a very good player, it's just that Tech is deep and talented, so he's able to concentrate on just scoring, much like Redick, McCants and Gray. But Elder's not as good as any of those other guys.

The guy I moved off is Taron Downey. He had a very good freshman year last year, but got replaced this year by Gray, a better point guard. Downey is still good, but I'm surprised that his numbers put him this high. He's just not critical enough to his team's success to be an All Conference player.

My third team:
Luol Deng - after Hodge, the most versatile player
Sean May - should be better, but look at what he's done
Marcus Melvin - the best inside-outside player
John Gilchrist - Yet another tough young point guard
BJ Elder - A great scoring guard in a league of scoring guards

So, there you have it. There probably hasn't been a year in ACC history where the difference between the three teams has been so little. Almost all of these guys could have been on any of the three teams, and there are worthy players, like Jawad Williams and Illian Evtimov, who will get left out.

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Posted by Dave at March 5, 2004 03:59 PM | TrackBack