Dave Sez

ACC Review - Week 6

First off, let me say that this was one crazy weekend. The ACC is completely unpredictable. Right is wrong. Up is down. John Bunting can coach. It's nuts, I say.

It's weekends like this past one that remind me why I don't bet on sports. You can look at past performance all you want, but you just can't accurately predict sports outcomes, especially when you are talking about groups of 18-22-year-olds. I certainly hope no one is using my Previews as advice for how they want to bet. If anyone is, he's dumber than I am and deserves to lose his money.

Clemson at Virginia - Well, I was right that Clemson would come out strong in this game. They are not a bad team, or at least not a bad collection of players. They had their backs to the wall, they were playing a ranked opponent, and the game was on national TV (although Thursday night has not been kind). Sure enough, the Tigers came out firing, marching 80 yards for a touchdown on their first possession. Their defense was equally as fired up, holding the Cavaliers to just two field goals for most of the first half.

Slowly Virginia, turned back the Tigers, seizing control midway through the second quarter with a precise, if unspectacular, running game. The Cavaliers led 13-10 at halftime and then completely dominated the ball and the game in the second half to win 30-10. Virginia's cool efficiency was extremely impressive. They didn't have many big plays, but they just kept moving the chains. Discounting the plays where they took a knee at the end of each half, Virginia converted 14 of 18 third downs. After three of those failed conversions, they kicked field goals.

Defensively, UVA stuffed Clemson after that first drive. The Tigers managed only 131 yards the rest of the night, despite Charlie Whitehurst's best game of the season. Maybe "best" isn't the right word. How about "least mediocre" game?

If you watched the game, you heard the College Gameday guys, Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit, practically drooling over Virginia's offensive line play. They needed a moist towelette by the end of the game. The praise was deserved though, as Clemson's D line got blown off the ball all night long. After Wali Lundy fumbled at Clemson's 6 yard line (one play that helped keep the score appear closer than it really was), backup Alvin Pearman took over for the Cavaliers and gained over 100 yards. This team is deep and talented.

One interesting play happened in the second quarter after Virginia's second field goal. They kicked off to Clemson's Justin Miller, the ACC's leading all-purpose runner. He was tackled by Pearman, the ACC's second leading all-purpose runner. I bet that sort of convergence hasn't happened too often.

For Clemson, the season is pretty much shot. Like most ACC teams, they are still good enough to win almost any game they play, but you just never know when they'll show up to play. They could lose any game just as easily win. If it weren't for the huge (and dumb) extension they gave Tommy Bowden last year, he'd surely be getting his house ready for the market.

For Virginia, this was their best win, but it's irrelevant now, as their biggest game of the season (so far) is this weekend in Tallahassee. I'll have a separate article just about that game a bit later in the week.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - I got this wrong, but just barely. I thought Tech would come out flat and be upset. They actually played fairly well, but still almost lost. For the third time this year, Wake went down to the last play of the game, and for the third time, they lost. You have to feel for the Deacons. Like I said before, they are good enough to play with anyone, but they just can't seem to make that one or two extra plays to win.

For the Hokies, this was a pretty important game. They are not a great team, so it's important to beat the teams they should beat. With Maryland and NC State crapping the laundry hamper this weekend, the door is open for the Hokies. They could easily sneak into the top four in the conference. With games left against both Virginia and Miami, they could possibly even go higher than that. I wouldn't count on it, but anything's possible this year.

Georgia Tech at Maryland - And the award for Most Shocking Result of the weekend goes to Georgia Tech beating Maryland 20-7 in College Park. Talk about one that no one saw coming! I mean, I knew that Georgia Tech had some unproven talent, and they did beat Clemson in Death Valley, but they also got spanked by UNC.

It's not the fact that Tech beat Maryland that's surprising, it's the manner in which they did it. I never would have guessed that Ralph Friedgen-coached team would manage to muster only 81 yards in a game. 81 yards! I would be impressed if Miami held Duke to 81 yards, but Georgia Tech stuffing the Terps like that? By the end of the game, the Maryland offense was fetching muffins for Georgia Tech and freshening up their coffee. Who will protect this house, indeed.

So, what to make of this result? Is Georgia Tech actually a really good team? Is Maryland a really bad team? Honestly, I have no idea. Actually, what I think is that the conference is loaded with mediocre teams who have the capacity to play well and to play poorly. Good teams are consistent, and most of the ACC teams are not consistent yet. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Maryland are about as predictable as Mike Tyson after six cups of coffee.

Florida State at Syracuse - This one was very nearly the third shocker of the day, as Florida State got themselves in a hole against Syracuse and only barely dug out. Like Wake against Virginia Tech, Syracuse had the ball at the end of the game chucking it in the end zone for the win. Fortunately, like the Hokies, the Seminoles held strong, intercepting Perry Patterson to secure the win.

The big question after this game is why was it close? Syracuse has played two other highly ranked teams this season, Purdue and Virginia, and was waxed by both by at least three touchdowns. Supposedly, Florida State is better than each of those teams. So, is Syracuse just getting a bit better (likely), or is Florida State not really that great (possible)? Another potential reason is that Florida State took the Orange(men) a bit too lightly and were looking forward to next week's showdown with the Cavaliers. I'm not sure I really buy that one, because I suspect that the Seminole players don't really respect Virginia that much, but it is an excuse that even coach Bowden was offering. I just think FSU was flat. Like Bobby said, they probably should have lost the game.

NC State at North Carolina - Last, but certainly not least, is the most controversial game of the weekend, and probably the season. As for predicting the outcome, I've been kicking myself for writing that Carolina really had no chance. I've written so many times this year that the Tar Heels really do have good players and are capable of beating anyone, but I got blinded by their recent poor play. Sure enough, the rivals from Raleigh brought out the best in the Blue Boys.

To be fair, it wasn't just that Carolina played better, but that NC State shot themselves in the foot too often. The Wolfpack outgained the Tar Heels 577 to 356. The difference is that the Pack turned the ball over three times and Carolina didn't lose the ball once. As I wrote about yesterday, the last turnover was the biggie for State. TA McClendon, one play after appearing to score the winning touchdown before it was called back, fumbled at the goal line, costing State the game.

So, what does this win mean for these teams? It could mean a lot, actually. For Carolina and John Bunting, it changes everything. Suddenly, the awful Heels are 3-3 and 2-2 in the conference. A few more decent performances and this could actually be a bowl team. Going 6-5 would almost certainly save John Bunting's job. That was inconceivable just a few weeks ago. It's still unlikely, but winning, like losing, can be addictive. The Heels can't keep allowing teams to roll up over 500 yards of offense and hope that they turn the ball over at key moments, but maybe a few bright days will change attitudes in Chapel Hill. A team that believes it can win is dangerous.

For State, the loss puts them in a precarious situation. They still have games with Maryland, Miami, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. All of those games are losable (and winnable), although 3-2 or 2-3 is most likely. Three or four conference losses would probably mean that Chuck Amato would once again fail to get his team above fourth in the conference. In reading message boards at PackPride.com, I started seeing some of the first criticisms of the Amato regime. Could this game be the one that finally ends the honeymoon in Raleigh? I suspect so. Charm and promises can only go so far. Eventually, the Pack needs to live up to the hope and hype.

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Posted by Dave at October 12, 2004 11:36 AM | TrackBack