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January 06, 2005

Duke's Pros Greater Than Carolina's? Can't Be!

There are certain laws of life that are so immutable, so ingrained that we never even think of them anymore. You don't question gravity; you just know that it's there and if you jump, you'll fall. The sun will rise. The grass will grow. Clemson will play in the Thursday Night Les Robinson Invitational Play-In Game. We need these certainties in an uncertain world. They are our anchors.

One given in the ACC has always been that North Carolina produces the most and the best NBA players. It was never questioned. It was fact. Jordan. Perkins. Worthy. Cunningham. Wenstrom. Giants, all.

When Duke began to challenge Carolina's ACC supremacy in the middle 80's, that didn't change things. In fact, that only helped to prove the maxim, as Duke's players all seemed to flop at the next level. In fact, that too became something of a law, maybe more like a theorem - Duke players suck in the NBA.

It was only after the end of Dean Smith's time that things started to change a bit. Carolina produced flops like Ed Cota and Joe Forte while a few Dukies actually gained footholds in the League - Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Alaa Abdelnaby.

Suddenly, today it was, I came to realization that up is down. Black is white. Herb Sendek is funny. Duke has a better collection of NBA players than North Carolina.

It's hard to believe, hard to accept, but it's true. Check this table of the current Carolina and Duke players in the NBA right now. It includes their points, rebounds, assists and minutes per game (I bolded the particularly good numbers in each category). Not only does Duke have more players in the league, ten to eight, they are better.

Player G MPG RPG APG PPG
Carlos Boozer 33 36.8 9.7 3.0 20.1
Corey Maggette 28 37.8 5.9 3.4 22.2
Elton Brand 30 37.3 8.8 2.9 18.6
Grant Hill 29 34.8 4.1 3.7 19.3
Luol Deng 29 28.8 5.3 2.3 12.9
Mike Dunleavy 30 31.4 5.2 2.8 11.6
Shane Battier 31 28.5 4.6 1.3 8.0
Christian Laettner 23 17.4 3.3 0.9 6.7
Chris Duhon 29 23.3 2.0 4.7 3.8
Dahntay Jones 21 11.1 1.6 0.3 4.1
Vince Carter 26 32.7 3.8 3.1 17.4
Brendan Haywood 27 28.3 7.1 0.9 9.6
Antawn Jamison 30 39.0 8.7 2.5 20.7
George Lynch 23 24.3 4.2 2.3 4.5
Jeff McInnis 31 38.3 2.3 5.7 15.6
Jerry Stackhouse 26 29.5 3.2 2.3 14.3
Rasheed Wallace 29 34.6 7.6 1.8 13.8
Scott Williams 17 8.5 1.6 0.4 1.9

Now, I've taken the same data, but sorted the players by who I think is better. This is subjective, of course, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that there's a way to make things look much better for Carolina.

Player G MPG RPG APG PPG
Carlos Boozer 33 36.8 9.7 3.0 20.1
Antawn Jamison 30 39.0 8.7 2.5 20.7
Elton Brand 30 37.3 8.8 2.9 18.6
Corey Maggette 28 37.8 5.9 3.4 22.2
Grant Hill 29 34.8 4.1 3.7 19.3
Vince Carter 26 32.7 3.8 3.1 17.4
Jeff McInnis 31 38.3 2.3 5.7 15.6
Rasheed Wallace 29 34.6 7.6 1.8 13.8
Jerry Stackhouse 26 29.5 3.2 2.3 14.3
Luol Deng 29 28.8 5.3 2.3 12.9
Mike Dunleavy 30 31.4 5.2 2.8 11.6
Brendan Haywood 27 28.3 7.1 0.9 9.6
Shane Battier 31 28.5 4.6 1.3 8.0
George Lynch 23 24.3 4.2 2.3 4.5
Christian Laettner 23 17.4 3.3 0.9 6.7
Chris Duhon 29 23.3 2.0 4.7 3.8
Dahntay Jones 21 11.1 1.6 0.3 4.1
Scott Williams 17 8.5 1.6 0.4 1.9

Pretty shocking, isn't it? Duke has four of the top five players. If Vince Carter ever fully recovers from his yeast infection, he will probably move higher in the list, but that won't change the overall result. Even having Duke close in the comparison is Earth-moving.

So, what does this mean. Will the world spin backwards tomorrow? Will apples fall up? I don't know.

I just don't know.

I do know we'll get through this together though. And then we'll wait for McCants, Felton, May and Williams (Marvin, not Jawad) to set things straight.

p.s. You might wonder why I haven't mentioned any other ACC schools. The simple reason is that all of them together probably don't have enough pros to challenge either Carolina or Duke. It's pretty much always been that way. Georgia Tech had a run of some good pros and Wake has a few, but otherwise, most schools put out one good player every five years or so. Hell, Virginia doesn't even have one active player right now. There's a reason why there's so much hardware in Durham and Chapel Hill.

Comments
 
(1) by KHRISTY (unregistered) on 05/30/2006 02:01 am
em...i think u left someone out...of ur survey...n that happens to be michael jordan..

 
(2) by Dave on 05/30/2006 09:30 am
KHRISTY wrote:
em...i think u left someone out...of ur survey...n that happens to be michael jordan..


The table was for "Carolina and Duke players in the NBA right now." Obviously if it were an all-time list, Duke wouldn't be able to come close to Carolina. Only UCLA could compete with the Tar Heels on an all-time basis.

 
(3) by Khristy can't read. (unregistered) on 02/08/2007 10:56 pm
Khristy, if you knew how to read, you wouldn't have made such an obviously ignorant statement

 
(4) by Duke Fan (unregistered) on 03/26/2007 04:16 pm
Wow i never realized this, my friend and i always argue about duke and carolina players in the nba, him being a unc fan and me being a duke fan.

 
(5) by jason williams (unregistered) on 03/26/2007 04:27 pm
Jason williams?

 
(6) by william on 03/27/2007 12:21 am
Well, then the only surprise, Dave, is that it is as close as it is, since Duke essentially was better than Carolina every single year between 1998 and 2007. And where the hell is Ray Felton? Not to mention the three or four other Carolina guys in the NBA not listed here.

 
(7) by william on 03/27/2007 12:23 am
And with all these decent Duke players, why is Battier the one that K put on his ill-fated endeavor to win the World Basketball Championship?

 
(8) by Dave on 03/27/2007 12:24 am
william wrote:
Well, then the only surprise, Dave, is that it is as close as it is, since Duke essentially was better than Carolina every single year between 1998 and 2007. And where the hell is Ray Felton? Not to mention the three or four other Carolina guys in the NBA not listed here.


Check the date of the article!

 
(9) Date by william on 03/27/2007 12:33 am
Well, I am used to fresh product, lol.

 
(10) Duke Players by william on 03/27/2007 12:41 am
There are still a couple of differences. Grant Hill is probably the only Duke player to make it to the Vince Carter, Michael Jordan, James Worthy, Tim Duncan level of player--one that virtually any fan knows.

Even though Brand and Boozer and Deng are excellent players, isn't there some kind of inverse relationship between time spent at Duke and success in the NBA?

Finally, players like Laettner and Dunleavy were expected to do a lot more. Laettner started out OK, but ended up kind of a journeyman, whereas guys like Carter, Jamison, McInnis and especially Haywood ended up being better in the pros than they were in college.

 
(11) two things by gurufrisbee on 04/05/2007 05:58 pm
Coach K put both Brand and Battier on that World Championship Debacle team.

I think William is right on - Duke players have never reached that elite status in the NBA like Jordan, VCarter, Worthy, etc. have. Grant Hill was there and then the injuries came.

But I think it generally goes back to what I think is the fundamental difference between Duke and NC recruiting.

Duke goes for guys who they think will be great college players.
NC goes for guys who they think will be great players and hopes they stick around at Chapel Hill long enough to show that greatness there.

Obviously both approaches work pretty darn well. What doesn't work if Guthridge. And that is really why you see the disparity now. Duke kept rolling in the Guthridge years and NC tanked and their best basketball players for a while there all ended up in the NFL instead of the NBA.

 
(12) Re: two things by Matt on 04/06/2007 11:58 am
gurufrisbee wrote:
But I think it generally goes back to what I think is the fundamental difference between Duke and NC recruiting.

Duke goes for guys who they think will be great college players.
NC goes for guys who they think will be great players and hopes they stick around at Chapel Hill long enough to show that greatness there.


While this may be partly true, I think there is no denying the fact that Coach K burns his players out. The best pros from Duke have been those who left early.

 
(13) Duke by william on 04/06/2007 12:47 pm
That is a good point about Guthridge, Guru. Since we had 6 starters under Coach Gut, maybe we also needed an extra head coach, one for the bench and one to recruit.

Another thing that is changing now is that coaches are looking to land the best college players that do not seem to have pro-style games, or at least a healthy mix of such to avoid what is happening now to Florida and to UNC in 2005. Hansbrough, Ginyard and Frasor probably represent this type of player for UNC, along with incoming redshirt freshman, Graves, and perhaps even Lawson, given his lack of size.

With the assumption that B. Wright is leaving, SI has UNC as pre-season number one in the nation.

 
(14) by JennyMacBlu (unregistered) on 08/23/2007 04:47 pm
Confused!!!!! I thought I followed J.J. Reddick and Sheldon Williams for 4 years at Duke.
Sorry just checked your date.
Please be sure not to leave them out when you update.
I know there are a few more, at least one not graduating.
Coach K. does usually keep them for 4 years.
Then it would not be hard to stay at Duke and earn a Diploma.
Shows you are capable of other careers in the future once the NBA is finished with you as a player.

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Posted by Dave at January 6, 2005 06:15 PM | TrackBack

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