Dave Sez

Shelden Vs. J.J.

Ken Pomeroy has a thing for Shelden Williams. But that's OK.

In a post from a couple of weeks ago (I'm still catching up from the holidays), Ken compares Shelden's numbers to teammate J.J. Redick's and wonders why J.J. is the one being hailed as the national player of the year. As always, Ken makes some excellent points. It's not clear to me at all that Redick is more valuable to his team than Williams is. Like Ken points out, Shelden's defense is light years ahead of J.J.'s.

My one beef with the article though is that he suggests that Shelden's offensive production is pretty near to J.J.'s. Now, I agree that the statistics suggest that and I know that Mr. Pomeroy knows much more about stats than I do, but I think this is one case where the numbers lie, or at least deceive.

In classical basketball theory, a good big man makes it easier for perimeter players to score. When they catch the ball inside, the defense collapses, allowing open shots for the other players. In most cases, that's how things work, but not for Duke. Not this year. There is no question that every defense Duke faces focuses the bulk of their attention on stopping, or at least slowing, J.J. Redick. As he runs around, everyone follows him - if not with their legs, then with their eyes. No one leaves Redick to help out.

That constant attention, and the fact that Redick is never content to just stand around and let his man rest, opens the floor for everyone else, including Shelden Williams. Williams gets easier shots because of J.J.

On top of that, because of their relative roles on the team, Shelden almost never has to produce offense for others. He gets himself in position and if he has an advantage, he gets the ball. You'll almost never see Williams create his own shot. Redick, on the other hand, not only runs around off of screens, but he frequently has the ball in his hand. He probes at the defense, constantly using the threat of his own shot to make the defense respond to him, after which he often makes a pass to an open teammate.

Those efforts don't show up in box score (other than assists, I suppose), so they won't be reflected in Ken's analysis.

In the end, he may well be right that the difference between Williams' and Redick's defense is greater than the gap between their offense, but stats won't tell that whole story.