October 23, 2006
UNC Punting Bunting
Give Dick Baddour credit, he didn't make John Bunting suffer any more than he had to. After UNC's crushing 23-0 loss on national television to the mediocre Virginia Cavaliers, it was no longer a question of if but of when Bunting would be let go. By doing it now, Bunting might just get a sympathy win when his team steps up in his honor. I've said it before, and I'll repeat it now - UNC will beat State and they'll do it for their coach. Then they'll remember who they are and who's coaching them and they'll lose to Duke.
But back to Big John. Caulton Tudor has a nice (well, "nice" if you aren't a member of John Bunting's family) piece running down some reasons why and how Bunting failed.
Now comes the fun part, guessing who the next Tar Heel coach will be. I think Baddour learned his lesson - picking a guy just because he's an alumnus is a bad idea. Being an alum is nice, but in the long run it's completely irrelevant. Bear Bryant didn't go to Alabama, Bobby Bowden didn't attend Florida State, Mike Krzyzewski didn't go to Duke and Dean Smith graduated from Kansas. Instead, Baddour needs to find a guy who's been a head coach for a while, had been very successful and is ready to step up to a bigger program. No, UNC is not a major football program but they are big name overall in college athletics. The ingredients are there to be successful.
The N&O has a preliminary list of potential candidates (see the sidebar here). I'm guessing they they made this list up themselves without any inside sources to Baddour's list. Of the N&O's list, I'd say that Bobby Petrino would be the #1 candidate if they can land him. The one concern would be whether he could deal (or would want to deal) with the higher academic standards in the ACC and at UNC. At Louisville, he can pretty much bring in anyone he wants.
A more realistic get might be Paul Johnson of Navy, but I think he'd be a bad choice. He's won at Navy by basically running an option attack that is successful in part because it's so rare these days. That's not going to work at a big-time program, because you'll have a hard time landing top-flight quarterbacks and receivers. Also if conference coaches see it every year, they'll figure it out quickly. I'd stay away from Johnson.
Whoever UNC goes after and gets, it should make for a very interesting soap opera over the next few months. I can't wait to watch.
p.s. I'm an idiot. Bear Bryant did go to the University of Alabama. I got a bit overzealous there. You can substitute Tom Osborne if you'd like or maybe Ara Parseghian, Bobby Knight or John Wooden.
I doubt they can afford Petrino even if he wanted to come, they would have to pay him $2 million plus a year right away, and that's before any counteroffer. He was offered $5 million a year by the Raiders and declined (wouldn't you, considering that team?). What could UNC offer him that Louisville can't? He already has a national title contender, and money doesn't seem to be his primary motivation.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2517825
The rest of the guys on the N&O list are uninterested or uninspiring.
| Lee J. Cockrell wrote: |
| Strangely, if I hit Preview it posts right away, if I hit post it does nothing. |
I'll put my QA staff on testing that right away!
That said, I can't see Davis coming to UNC. No former NFL coach is going to consent to be second fiddle to a basketball team, no matter how glorious Dave thinks they are ;)
| tieguy wrote: |
| If they don't drool over Butch Davis, they're idiots. He put together a team that should have played for three straight national titles and should have won two, which is well, two more than anyone else currently in the ACC and not completely senile.
That said, I can't see Davis coming to UNC. No former NFL coach is going to consent to be second fiddle to a basketball team, no matter how glorious Dave thinks they are |
But didn't Davis really just win with Jimmy Johnson's players and then keep the ball rolling? I don't think he stayed long enough to prove that he could keep it up.
That's a completely different task than what a UNC coach would be tasked with.
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia/acc/miami/yearly_results.php?year=1995
[That said, Davis wouldn't win any titles at Carolina- even without the academic standards issue, recruiting to UNC in football will be harder than recruiting to UM. Zero tradition, and the Carolinas aren't nearly as deep in talent as Florida is.]
| Lee J. Cockrell wrote: |
| Davis was after Erickson who was after Johnson. Davis took them through their probation year (5-6) and re-rebuilt them into a national title contender. UNC could do worse.
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia/acc/miami/yearly_results.php?year=1995 |
Ah, that's right. I guess I was thinking of Erickson. Davis never actually won a NC, although Coker won his with Davis' players.
| leduc wrote: |
| Bear Bryant went to Alabama! |
Shit, you're right! I knew I should have double-checked that. That's what happens when you write stuff quickly. I was thinking about his previous jobs at Maryland, Kentucky and Texas A&M.
I'm going to put a note at the bottom of my piece about that.
Right, but he should have been in the game his last year in Miami (the BCS computers reamed us) and like you say, Coker was one bogus pass interference call away from winning two straight titles with Davis's kids.
| BobDCousy wrote: |
| I'm suprised I haven't heard Rod Broadway's name mentioned. He's an UNC alumnus, and is leading NCCU to their first 8-0 start in 65 years. He hasn't coach D-1A yet, but he has had experience as Steve Spurrier's assistant at Duke and Florida. |
There's a big difference between Division II and D-1A. I think UNC will try hard to find a current or recent 1-A head coach who has proven to be successful at the highest levels.
Also, Spurrier's assistants haven't proven to be that impressive. Remember, Carl Franks was a highly-thought-of Spurrier assistant and he sucked as a head coach.
All that's not to say that Broadway couldn't be an excellent D1-A head coach, but no one really knows for sure at this point. UNC can't take that kind of gamble again.
| statprof wrote: |
| What possible motivation could Petrino have for moving to UNC? Is there any dimension -- salary, conference, fan base, recruiting base, MNC potential -- on which the UNC job (*today/future*) trumps the Louisville job (*today/future*)? That makes no sense at all. |
Seriously? I think UNC can compete in nearly every one of the areas you listed.
Salary - Without looking it (although I will later), I'd wager that UNC's athletic department makes WAY more money than Louisville's. If UNC really wanted to, they could easily match Petrino's current financial package.
Conference - This one season aside, would anyone seriously argue that the ACC is not a much stronger football conference than the Big East? The ACC certainly makes a TON more money for its schools.
Fan base - hard to prove either way. Both are basketball schools who like football when it's good.
Recruiting base - UNC is in a better region for talent but has more competition for it.
MNC Potential - I'll give Louisville this one mostly because the Big East offers a very easy path to a BCS bowl. West Virginia is really the only serious obstacle while UNC has to deal with FSU, Miami, VT and Clemson.
Also, Schiano looks to be the next Miami coach.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/oconnor/2006-10-23-greg-schiano_x.htm?POE=SPOISVA
| Lee J. Cockrell wrote: |
| Is that your wife typing? XD Seriously, it sounds like those tarheels who thought they could get Beamer / Schottenheimer / Richt the last time this happened. Torbush, Bunting, Doherty, Gutheridge... what makes them think this time will be different? |
You don't grow up hating a school without learning a bit about it. Like it or not, UNC is a giant in the sports world. Obviously their football status is way below their basketball status, but that doesn't mean they can't land a good coach. Hell, they came damn close to stealing Beamer last time.
As for those basketball guys, well I'm sure you know the stories. Gutheridge was hand-picked by Dean. They got Doherty because Roy turned them down the first time. At the time, Doherty was one of the hottest young coaches in the country. And the fact that they were still able to hire away Kansas's coach a few years later shows where they still stand there. How many schools could take away a Hall-of-fame coach from one of the elite national programs?
I'm not saying that UNC will get Petrino. I don't even know if they'll try. And if they did, you can never predict the actions of a single person. That said, it's ridiculous to suggest that no coach would ever consider leaving Louisville for UNC.
IMHO, Kragthorpe offers the most bang for the buck, although I wonder how a westerner would work out as a recruiter in the south??? One thing for certain--Baddour will have loads of adult supervision on this hire.
The middle school where I teach is having a tough football season. I asked the student activities coordinator what he expected when he dressed the lads in pastels. He said, "UNC wears light blue!" And I said, "My point exactly!"
| Ed-Hoo wrote: |
| "giant" in the sports world? Maybe "giant" in the sports markting world because they are "giant" in the basketball world. |
If UNC's not, then who is? And I think it's fair to include marketing here, because what I'm really talking about is perception. Who the "big" programs are is completely subjective. One objective measurement though is that UNC regularly sells more merchandise nationally than nearly any other school. They were the #1 seller 5 years in a row until Texas knocked them off last year.
That kind of national exposure has to help in recruiting for every sport, not just basketball.
All that said, I'm not trying to claim that they are a football power or are perceived as one. But they are a school that has the tools to be one. (This is where we could get into a recruiting discussion about the number of D1-A schools in a relatively small state, but I don't want to go there now.)
Anyone who thinks they actually had a shot with Beamer is delusional- that was pure and simple a move to get a raise out of VT.
That said, aside from the delusion about the significance of UNC in the football world, you're dead on about the comparisons to Louisville, Dave. The ACC is a way higher profile and more profitable football conference than the Big East, and UNC overall a higher profile school. And really, if you add a 'profile in football' column to the comparison chart, well, both schools suck there so it is a wash.
[Tangentially, you keep citing the merchandising revenue from UNC, but I'd bet my left nut that if they broke 'football jerseys' into a separate category, UNC would drop from top 5 to top 100, if they're lucky.]
As they say, LOL. I'll take that bet. Louisville 17th most profitable. UNC 63rd.
http://www2.indystar.com/NCAA_financial_reports/
[These move around, the top 10 from 2002-3 contains both:
UNC 7th and Louisville 1st.]
(Interestingly, that database claims that Louisville basketball has almost 20% more revenue than UNC basketball- which seems insane.)
(And yes, despite Davis's indicated interest in the UNC job I'll stand by everything I've said until he signs on a dotted line :)
| statprof wrote: |
| As they say, LOL. I'll take that bet. Louisville 17th most profitable. UNC 63rd.
http://www2.indystar.com/NCAA_financial_reports/ [These move around, the top 10 from 2002-3 contains both: UNC 7th and Louisville 1st.] |
While there is no disputing your numbers, I would make a couple of arguments in response:
1. Perhaps most importantly (and as you note), these numbers fluctuate a great deal. If you buy some new gear, upgrade a facility, buy out a coach's contract, or encounter some other large, one-time expenditure (or revenue, such as a large donation), you will fall from 5th to 65th (or, the other way around). Schools are reporting actual annual dollars and cannot use the creative accounting employed by many businesses to "smooth out" the peaks and valleys in annual revenues. I would argue that a three, five, or ten year moving average would be much more telling than a single year snapshot.
2. Based on (1) above, I think that total revenue (where UNC is clearly superior) is much more significant than "profit". The higher your revenue, the greater "hit" you can stand to absorb financially without being adversely impacted.
3. If UNC got a gentleman's agreement from a big time coach to come to UNC, the Ram's Club would pay for it, no questions asked.
4. Perhaps the most glaring financial difference (to me) between UNC and UL is that UNC is losing $14M on "other" while UL is only losing $4.5M. This is an enormous difference and one that needs to be understood before one can fully understand these data. Circular argument back to (1) above.
By the way, I went to UVA, so I have no love lost for UNC, but as someone who has lived all over the country, I agree with Dave here -- everywhere I have been, UNC is huge -- basketabll, football, whatever. Everyone loves Carolina.
Matt
Another interesting bit in there is that Louisville shows $8M in "Contributions" while UNC has less than $1M. Now, maybe I'm way off, but I assume that that means gifts from donors. It's odd that it would show up here and not with their private booster club, like most schools have. I have a hunch that the Rams Club can easily match up with the revenue of Louisville's booster club.
So if you take that $8M out, the margin grows even wider.
| Matt wrote: |
| I didn't catch that huge difference in "contributions", but obviously, that is quite significant. Again, without knowing exactly what that means (or, without including contributions to booster clubs) it is difficult to really interpret the data provided in those tables. |
Agreed. I had meant to make that point about booster clubs in general. I assume that it's probably very difficult to get financial data on those. Since those clubs pay a portion of coaches' salaries, they are important to know.
As for my Louisville bias, I'm on faculty in the B10. Couldn't give two *$%&s about Louisville.
Anyway, there may be accounting differences at the margins -- not sure why the Title IX folks at the Dept of Education would stand for that, since that's what these data are collected for, but perhaps -- but the idea that North Carolina has *clearly* greater resources *for football* than Louisville is just not sustainable. Louisville was podunk, outside of basketball, not that long ago, but that's not true any more.
And I'm not swayed in the least from my bottom line -- Petrino may end up in the NFL or at a tOSU/FSU-level program, but if he takes the Carolina job, I'll eat my hat.
BrightCar Car Maintenance Software - Software To Manage Your Car Maintenance Schedule
