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November 20, 2006

Charles In Trouble

What to do about Chuck Amato? What to do?

Now in year 3 PR (post Rivers), it's clear that NC State is NOT on the verge of greatness. It's abundantly clear that Chuck has not capitalized on the momentum he built up in his first few years and that the program is no longer the up-and-coming comet it once appeared to be. NC State is not a national power and doesn't appear to be headed anywhere near there. Worse, with UNC's hiring of Butch Davis, Wake Forest's miracle season and ECU's surprising bowl game run, NC State is possible the fourth hottest program in the state.

Back in the Philip Rivers days, the Wolfpack didn't quite live up to the outrageous expectations (it may be hard to recall, but many folks were actually and seriously talking about national championships!), but did do quite well. Amato and Rivers whomped Notre Dame (and UNC) in their first year and went 11-3 in year three. Even with a surprisingly mediocre 8-5 in Rivers' senior year, the Wolfpack's future looked exceedingly bright. Alumni was rabid, money was rolling in and buildings were going up. Then came the 5-6 season. OK, a little rebuilding was to be expected (although a true Florida State North would go 8-4 in a rebuilding year, right?). Last year, the Pack rebounded slightly, going 7-5 after winning five of their last six.

The two middling PR seasons left Chuck Amato on the proverbial hot seat. Things were nearly bad enough to fire him, but even the most ardent supporters were wondering if they'd been had by a smooth-talking charlatan. Last Saturday's sloppy loss to the hapless Tar Heels left no doubt. NC State is now 3-8 with six straight losses. They couldn't beat Carolina, a team with a lame-duck coach that hadn't beat a 1-A school all year. If John Bunting isn't good enough to coach anymore in Chapel Hill, what about Amato, who Bunting's beaten three straight times?

The thing is, the ironic thing, is that Amato's early success and hype is largely to blame here. In most of NC State's history, two middling seasons (including one bowl appearance) followed by one terrible year wouldn't guarantee a firing. That would earn you one more year to earn your job back. But that's not the program anymore. Chuck Amato came in talking about building a national power and national powers don't accept four consecutive years without a winning conference record.

For Amato, it's not even just the ugly record, the angry fans or the embarrassing loss to a crappy rival. Now the newspapers have turned on him. Dick Dascenzo of the Durham Herald Sun skewered the Chest yesterday and the News & Observer's Caulton Tudor did the same. When the newspaper guys, the ones who need good rapport with coaches to get their stories, turn on you, you know you're in deep Davenport. For good measure, the student paper called for his head today.

So, what to do? Clearly Chuck has done lots of good at State. He helped build a new football building, expand the stadium, bring in superior talent and create a positive vibe that had been missing in Raleigh since Jim Valvano slinked off campus. Is one terrible season (after three disappointing ones) enough to fire him? Maybe not, but consider what bringing him back will mean. It's clear to me that Amato just isn't a good enough coach to compete at this level (unless he has one of the greatest players in ACC history running his offense). Another year isn't going to help that. Tudor has a nice paragraph about what that extra year would mean:

There's a chance Amato will get another year. But if so, it would be a plunge into purgatory marked by a weekly referendum on his fate. N.C. State would have 12 games, each a certifiable crisis until the coach either won or lost enough games to make the eventual decision a moot issue.

How would that be good for the program? Would that brutal deathmarch be worth making it appear that NC State gives coaches a fair shake?

On the flip side, could State land a guy who could fulfill Amato's empty promises? Possibly, but maybe not. Odds are, their search wouldn't be as quick, painless or as successful as UNC's was. In the long run that probably doesn't matter, but in the short term, while local high school kids are still picking their schools, it would have an impact.

What to do?

Comments
 
(1) by SuperJew (unregistered) on 11/20/2006 03:53 pm
I think because of that 'purgatory' element that Amato would face throughout the 2007-2008 season would force a normal AD to test the waters for an upgrade in coaching. However, this is Lee Fowler we're talking about here and if there's one thing that's for certain, its a firm loyalty to his head coaches whom are under constant fire.

If the logical, rational NC State fan has to search inside himself and honestly say if they can actually land a home run head coach to counter any momentum that UNC has with Davis, then I say they should definately go for it. They could do MUCH better than Amato (he should have been canned after the Akron comments), but they need a home run hire just to counter the momentum of the Butch Davis hire.

I never tire of these NC State head coaching soap operas.

 
(2) by Dave on 11/20/2006 04:16 pm
SuperJew wrote:
I never tire of these NC State head coaching soap operas.


I secretly enjoy them as well. Don't get me wrong. I wish no ill of State fans, but something about their makeup just makes these situations amusing to observe from a distance. For State fans, it's a short trip from ugly despair to cocky enthusiasm.

 
(3) by Lee J. Cockrell (unregistered) on 11/20/2006 04:22 pm
A few posters in that StateFansNation thread (you linked in the previous post) are talking, apparently seriously, that Bill Cowher might have already informally accepted the job.

Next thing you know, they'll be saying they can get Rick Barnes, too.

 
(4) by Dave on 11/20/2006 04:24 pm
I decided not to go down the Cowher path in my article, but that's been a rumor/wish all year now. Actually it started last year when Cowher bought a house in Raleigh. Even Steelers fans seem to believe that he's going to leave after the year and move here.

I just don't understand why he'd step down from the Steelers to take a job that has just as much stress, possibly more, but a lot loss pay and prestige. He's shown that he can win year in-year out in Pittsburgh. That's not going to be so easy at NC State.

It just doesn't make sense to me.

 
(5) by Matt on 11/21/2006 04:30 pm
Word on the street here in Raleigh is Norm Chow. Doesn't seem like a good fit to me (for NCSU and Norm), but I'm just the messenger. I'm hearing this from a "friend of the athletic department", certainly not a high-placed source.

 
(6) by Dave on 11/21/2006 04:40 pm
The No Comments from Lee Fowler and terse ending of the press conference yesterday were extremely telling. I'd link to a great piece at StateFans Nation, but they exceeded their bandwidth earlier today and have been down since.

I'll have to go trolling for rumors, but it will be hard to tell truth from fiction, in particular in re: Norm Chow. He's been high on the State wish list since he left for USC. He's the #2 choice behind Bill Cowher and I don't really know if he's any more realistic.

One thing is for sure is that things are happening. Fowler certainly did speak loudly earlier this year about how safe Amato was. Stopping to say that he won't comment on that anymore just tells everyone that things have changed. If they hadn't, he could have ended the rumors with a single statement saying Amato would be back next year.

So either Amato has been fired, is being fired, or is going through some sort of negotiation process that may include a final year to turn things around.

 
(7) by SuperJew (unregistered) on 11/21/2006 08:35 pm
I'd bet a pretty penny that, knowing how Lee Fowler isn't too keen on the phrase "Your Fired", Amato has one more year to turn it around.

re: Norm Chow & potential replacements: I think that Cowher is more likely than Norm to take over NC State if Amato is axed. What about some other head coaching candidates whom the N.C. State faithful would like to replace Chuck?

 
(8) by Herb (unregistered) on 11/22/2006 08:47 am
Cowher and Chow are far and away the top choices of the WPN, but another name than keeps coming up is Paul Johnson. Johnson is the head coach at Navy, where he has lead them to unprecedented success and recently won the national coach of the year award. He also won multiple national championships as head coach at 1-AA Georgia Southern. Before that I believe he served as offensive coordinator at both those schools as well as Hawaii and is regarded as an offensive guru. He makes a lot of sense for several reasons: he's a NC native, the WPN are desparate to score more than 23 points in a game, he's tapped out the potential at Navy, and NC State is a solid step up from there.

 
(9) by Dave on 11/22/2006 09:31 am
I think Paul Johnson is a much more reasonable choice and quite possibly the best candidate of the three.

If Cowher is really too burned out to stay in Pittsburgh, a place where he's practically earned untouchable status, why would he want to jump straight into a college job? And would he be good at it? While I think he's obviously a great pro coach and motivation is one of his strong suits, he doesn't have to do a lot of teaching at that level and no recruiting. Ask Carolina fans about how hiring a guy with no college experience works out.

Norm Chow is a great offensive mind (at least he is when he has great talent), but like Amato when he was hired, Chow has never been a head coach. Also, he's not young and has no real ties to this area.

Paul Johnson would be a great hire.

 
(10) Paul Johnson by Ed-Hoo on 11/22/2006 10:08 am
I can't put my finger on it, but in all the stuff I read about the UNC search, someone wrote (paraphrasing), "Johnson would be a poor choice because he runs a gimmick offense at an independent school. After a season in the ACC, coaches would figure out how to defend it."

I hope it wasn't you... "EG"

 
(11) by Dave on 11/22/2006 10:33 am
I may have written something like that. Later though, I learned that he ran a spread offense while the OC at Hawaii. Evidently, what he runs at Navy uses the same concepts (spread the D and try to confuse them). The difference is just that while he passed a lot at Hawaii, now he runs the ball. He says that his offense will work either way.

So, I changed my opinion. It sounds like he's not just an option guy like I thought.

Here are some gushing points about his schemes - http://tarheelfan.wordpress.com/2006/11/02/more-on-paul-johnson/


All that said, I'd still be a bit worried about how ACC coaches would handle his offense. Certainly part of his success is due to the unique nature of what his teams do. Would that still apply in his third year in the league?

 
(12) by Herb (unregistered) on 11/22/2006 12:29 pm
I feel Paul Johnson is a 'can't miss.' But that doesn't mean he wouldn't be a bigger 'hit' than Cowher or Chow, they just each have a major question.

There's no doubt in my mind Cowher would be successful at NC State. The NFL is simply much tougher than college football. Look at mediocre NFL coaches like Wannstedt, Callahan, or Carroll, or great college coaches like Saban or Spurrier. Successful head coach in the NFL is a far cry from position coach/coordinator in the NFL. With The Jaw State would be bowl-bound every year and competing for ACC championships. The question is - does he have the love for NC State that would make him leave Pittsburgh? This would be very similar to Weis to Notre Dame. The timing's an issue too, but if he wants the job and won't dilly dally around, it should be his.

The Chow situation is a little more complicated. The question is - why has he never been a head coach? Top assistants very often make excellent head coaches (e.g. Stoops, Ritcht, Rodriguez, Prince, etc.), although, as State fans well know, they don't always work out (e.g. Amato, etc.). So the question is, does Chow fall in the former group or the latter? If it's the former, he should be offered the job, although maybe behind Johnson. He may not want the job, but it's worth asking, and he should be looking for work after this season.

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