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December 08, 2006

State Steals O'Brien

I've had NC State's hiring of Boston College coach Tom O'Brien on my brain for a couple of days now. I've thought of tons of things I want to write about it, but I realize now that I'll never get all of that typed out. Instead, I'll just go through a few of my basic thoughts. Maybe I can flush them out more in the comments if folks want to start a conversation about it.

First off let me say that I think that O'Brien will improve State's program. They will play a more organized, more disciplined brand of football. They may not beat FSU quite as regularly, but they should be more consistent and successful than they were under Chuck Amato.

But I still don't like the hire.

The main reason I don't like it is simply that I don't believe in raiding a coach from another ACC school. It's tacky. It's unseemly. Before Frank Haith tried to be considered for NC State's basketball job last year, I thought there was an ACC rule against such hirings. Clearly there isn't, but there should be. It's just bad business for the conference.

I'm also not convinced that O'Brien is really what NC State fans want. It's a safe choice, but it's boring. O'Brien pretty much reached his ceiling at BC. It's a high ceiling to be sure - 8-9 wins a year - but I don't think Wolfpack fans will be content with that. Sure, they'd love to have 8 or 9 wins instead of 3 or 4, but what happens after they go 8-4, 9-3 and 8-4? They are going to want to take that next step. If you win 8 or 9 games, odds are you're coming in second or third in your division and just missing out on the championship. You're good, probably ranked, but not great. That's not the path that State fans started down a few years ago when they pumped enthusiasm and money into the goal of reaching the Promised Land of an elite program. Tom O'Brien doesn't look to me like a guy who can take a program to the 10-12 win plateau on any consistent basis.

Some will argue that TOB will raise his ceiling in Raleigh where he has better facilities, better fans and better recruits. Maybe. State fans may be extremely passionate and numerous, they can also be extremely negative and reactionary. In Boston, they like BC when it's good, but ignore it when it's not. Things don't work that way here.

As I wrote when O'Brien's name came up with the UNC job, I don't believe it's necessarily true that State has access to better recruits. Sure the south has more talent than the northeast, but there are also a ton more schools to fight for that talent. There are five 1-A schools just in this state and many more just across the borders. At BC, you pretty much have only Syracuse to compete with north of New York City. High school football may not be as good up there, but the quantity can compensate for the relative quality. Boston alone has more than half the population of the entire state of North Carolina.

There's no question that State has had more individual talent recently than BC, but a lot of that was due to Amato's Florida contacts. O'Brien has no such contacts (that I know of). In fact, assuming he keeps his coaching staff intact, and they've been together for a long time so it's likely, he will have to build his entire regional recruiting network from scratch. That's going to be tough, especially considering that Butch Davis just moved in over in Chapel Hill.

I would guess that State's talent level is going to drop off from the Amato years. Can O'Brien compensate for that? Yes, probably. To the tune of, oh I don't know, about 8-9 wins a year.

Comments
 
(1) by Herb (unregistered) on 12/08/2006 05:52 pm
The ACC should have a rule against hiring coaches from other ACC schools. How would you like it if your company banded together with its competitors to make such a rule. So you're getting underpaid at company A, but you can't leave to go somewhere else and make more money, because of said rule. And to boot, you want to go, your company doesn't care if you go, and the other company wants you. Same situation here - it would be both illegal and wrong for the ACC to make such a rule.

 
(2) by SuperJew (unregistered) on 12/08/2006 06:04 pm
I completely agree. Oh, and The Leader in Sports Entertainment is now saying that Rich Rodriguez will stay at West Virginia.

Talk about a sucker punch to a prideful fanbase. I wouldn't want to be in Alabama right now.

 
(3) by J in DC (unregistered) on 12/08/2006 07:10 pm
Dave, I agree with the sentiment of your argument, but a rule against hiring coaches from within your conference would be considered collusion under federal law (Sherman Anti-Trust Act). There is no measure for how fast the AFCA would sue the ACC or any other conference if this rule were carried out. That said, imagine for a moment that John Swofford somehow banned intra-conference coaching hires. The NFL would immediately ban colleges, the arena league, etc. from hiring its head and assistant coaches. Why? Because they could effectively cap coaches salaries at that point.
But like I said, I don’t disagree with what you are saying. Just because the rule would be illegal that does not mean it’s wrong. That’s what we call ethical behavior. And that is not at the top of some NC State folk’s priority list. It is for a lot of people in the University, but I don’t think they are involved in athletics. Sadly that is the case at many universities today.
I’m sure a bunch of my fellow Wolfpack fans and alums will say that TOB was underpaid at BC and they aren’t really a member of the conference. That doesn’t mitigate this questionable decision in my opinion.
With all that out there let me say that I think TOB will be successful at NC State. If he wins a conference championship here no one will care where he came from. Dave, keep up the good work, have a good weekend!

 
(4) by Dave on 12/08/2006 08:35 pm
I'm no lawyer, but I don't think a rule such as this would be illegal.

You're only talking about limiting hiring to 11 men - the head coaches at the other schools. All the other 100 or so D1 head coaches, all the ACC assistants, all other D1 assistants, all pro coaches, all coaches at lower levels, etc. would be unaffected by this rule. It would be hard to prove that anyone was being denied opportunity to get a job.

Also, while many ACC schools are public entities, the ACC is not. A school has no right to be a member and the ACC can make rules as it sees fit (as long as they aren't legally descriminatory). The NCAA already does this as. For example there are NCAA rules that they limit the number of assistant coaches and how much some of those assistants can make.

BTW, I want to be clear that I'm not saying that what NC State was particularly dirty or even unethical. It's nearing the line of course, but from what I understand, O'Brien made it clear to both UNC and NC State that he was interested. I believe he made the first overture. That makes a difference to me. Still, I'd rather there were a rule in place that eliminated the temptation on both sides.

 
(5) by Dave on 12/08/2006 10:50 pm
Herb wrote:
How would you like it if your company banded together with its competitors to make such a rule.


Noncompete clauses are quite common in employment contracts, actually.

Herb wrote:
So you're getting underpaid at company A, but you can't leave to go somewhere else and make more money, because of said rule. And to boot, you want to go, your company doesn't care if you go, and the other company wants you. Same situation here - it would be both illegal and wrong for the ACC to make such a rule.


Saying that you can't take one of 11 possible jobs out of hundreds of potential jobs isn't really that limiting.

Oh, and what about ACC rules that penalize athletes who transfer within the ACC? If you transfer to a school in another conference, the NCAA makes you sit out a year, but you retain all eligibility. If you transfer within the ACC, you lose a year of eligibility. If your host school doesn't release you, you lose two years of eligibility.

How is that cool, but stopping coaches from switching isn't?

 
(6) by Ed-Hoo on 12/09/2006 11:52 am
Incisive analysis as always. I wasn't paying all that much attention in December 2000 when Welsh "retired," but was TOB interested/contacted about returning to Charlottesville?' That would have been after his fourth season at BC.

Of course, Triple 'Hoo Casteen and 'Hoo Groh were having their "pursuing the National Championship" lovefest (how's that working out, President Casteen?), and Littlepage was probably basking in the glow of Groh's NFL mystique, so he probably didn't get much of a look... Ironically, he would have been a good fit, and 8-9 wins would be highly succesful at UVa. Based on what I've read and observed, I don't think that will be the case in Raleigh...

 
(7) by Dave on 12/09/2006 12:22 pm
O'Brien's name came up in media and online discussion about the Virginia job, but I have no idea if he was actually pursued or not. He hadn't built BC up quite like he has now, so I don't think he was seen as a sexy hire. Remember, folks had gotten weary of Welsh's win-seven-every-year (except the last couple) routine and so hiring one of his proteges probably wouldn't have been popular.

Kind of funny how it worked out with O'Brien kind of the same way at BC. No matter where you are, if you reach a plateau and that plateau isn't an FSU-like 12-13 wins a year, folks get tired of you.

 
(8) by EdRomero (unregistered) on 12/09/2006 05:51 pm
O'Brien built a consistent winner but he got a lot of criticism for his end of game coaching and for having his team not coming through on some must win games (Miami this year, Syracuse last year)

Besides apathy about BC from BC students and the community, I wonder if O'Brien became frustrated with BC not getting better bowl invitations. BC beat Clemson and Maryland, had a better record, had the same conference record, yet they're going to a lesser bowl than both of these schools.

 
(9) by Dave on 12/09/2006 08:47 pm
EdRomero wrote:
Besides apathy about BC from BC students and the community, I wonder if O'Brien became frustrated with BC not getting better bowl invitations. BC beat Clemson and Maryland, had a better record, had the same conference record, yet they're going to a lesser bowl than both of these schools.


That's what's known in the business as getting Cavaliered.

 
(10) by DMoore (unregistered) on 12/11/2006 01:10 am
Dave Wrote:
"Noncompete clauses are quite common in employment contracts, actually."

and

"How is [penalizing athletes that transfer] cool, but stopping coaches from switching isn't?"

Yes, non-compete clauses are quite common. However, they are almost never held up in court. However, they discourage people from even trying to switch. Also, even if you are sued for going to work for a competitor and then win your case, you've lost the legal costs of defending yourself.

Regarding penalizing athletes that transfer, it's not cool. But how does one wrong (preventing athletes from freely leaving a situation that isn't working for them) justify another wrong (restricting employment flexibility)? This is why I LOVE the new rule that gives athletes that graduate with eligibility remaining the freedom to transfer without restrictions.

In both cases, the concerns are that freedom will be abused, e.g. athletes will transfer for the "wrong" reasons (my team isn't winning, their boosters will pay me more, etc.), or coaches will leave for the wrong reasons (my team beat all those other guys and I still have to play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl). However, I think it's very hard to argue that the freedom to hire coaches within your conference is being abused, because it happens so rarely.

Back to the point, O'Brien was seriously underpaid compared to his peers in the ACC for the results he was delivering, and I think he had the right to pursue the Carolina and State jobs. And, I do think that preventing him from applying in conference severely limits him from using the expertise he's developed that's specific to the ACC. Remember, schools will frequently not even consider coaches who do not have recruiting experience in their region of the country, or whose play style doesn't fit the conference (your comments about Paul Johnson being a wishbone advocate come to mind). Experience against your competitors has to be a big plus.

p.s. Meineke Car Care Bowl just rolls off the tongue, doesn't it?

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