February 05, 2007
Number Crunching - 2/5/07
Hey kids! Did you miss me?
I was down in Myrtle Beach playing golf for several days (key lesson learned: I suck at golf.) and then came back to do a little work around the house (wink, wink).
Anyhoo, while I didn't find any time to post for the past couple of weeks, I did still follow ACC basketball. I'd like to do a long post going over all the games since my last review, but it's probably more important right now to see where we are.
It's been a very interesting few weeks with clutch wins, heartbreaking losses, teams falling apart and teams making serious moves. If you'll recall my last look at the ACC numbers, I pointed out that at the time, eight ACC squads had NCAA Tourney-quality resumes. I figured that wouldn't hold. It hasn't. Right now, you could argue that nine teams deserve bids. Nine out of twelve! The shakiest two of those are UVA, who's been on fire, and Georgia Tech, who's been on ice. The Cavaliers have power ratings between the mid-30s and low-40s - right about the cutoff line, while the Yellow Jackets range from a comfortable 19 to a get-ready-for-the-NIT 59. If the season were to end today, the committee would have to decide what was more relevant for the Wreck, their recent skid or their five total wins over top 30 (Pomeroy ratings) teams.
But, enough yammering. Let's see that table!
| Team | Overall | ACC | Pomeroy | Pom. Off. | Pom. Def. | Sagarin | RPI | Trend |
| North Carolina | 20-3 | 6-2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 |  |
| Duke | 18-4 | 5-4 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 11 | 7 |  |
| Clemson | 18-5 | 4-5 | 20 | 37 | 22 | 17 | 22 | |
| Florida St. | 17-6 | 4-4 | 30 | 17 | 60 | 22 | 27 | |
| Maryland | 17-6 | 3-5 | 23 | 58 | 16 | 25 | 30 | |
| Georgia Tech | 14-8 | 3-6 | 19 | 19 | 39 | 26 | 59 | |
| Boston College | 16-6 | 7-2 | 36 | 12 | 87 | 29 | 25 | |
| Virginia Tech | 16-7 | 6-3 | 38 | 40 | 38 | 38 | 35 | |
| Virginia | 15-6 | 7-2 | 41 | 21 | 82 | 34 | 39 | |
| North Carolina St. | 13-8 | 3-5 | 74 | 57 | 107 | 86 | 102 | |
| Wake Forest | 10-12 | 2-8 | 84 | 93 | 104 | 101 | 126 | |
| Miami FL | 9-14 | 2-7 | 122 | 65 | 211 | 150 | 162 | |
You'll notice that I added one extra column - Trend. This is a quick way to see how teams have fared since I did this last, on January 16. In fact, as I talk a bit about these, it might be handy for you to pop up that article in another window.
My observations:
- Good googily moogily, Virginia has jumped up (80 spots in the RPI!)! I guess that's what six consecutive January wins will do for you. If only they hadn't gone to Puerto Rico.
- As you might have guessed, the computers are also happy with what NC State has done. It looks like their defense has been a big part of their recent success. Same for the Cavs, actually.
- The computers aren't as down on Duke as most human observers probably are, but you should know that Pomeroy's numbers don't yet reflect the Blue Devils' loss to FSU yesterday.
- Last time around, Carolina had the #3 offense and #10 defense in the land. They are still in the top ten in both, but now the defense actually rates higher, at #2 while the O has dropped to #7. I wonder what Huckleberry Hound has been stressing in practice?
- Miami of Florida is worse than Miami of Ohio. And the one in Ohio has a losing record.
- The top three teams in the ACC standings are BC, VT and UVA, but the computers put none of those teams in the top half of the power ratings. BTW, Pomeroy picks BC and VT to finish 10-6 and the Cavs 11-5.
Well, I could go on, but I'll leave it there for now. You'd be surprised how much work piles up when you are gone for a week and a half!
Comments
I'd just like to say I'm frustrated by the continued absence of Virginia from the top 25. If being tied for #1 in the ACC, beating two top ten teams and four top 25 teams isn't enough for a measly 23 or 24 what the heck is? Arizona's continued presence is particularly galling (in the AP, i know espn dropped em). Leaving aside the fact that we beat them, they've got a worse record in or out of their conference, and they have a habit of folding in tough games, particularly lately.
How is Wake up? Is it because they beat Georgia Tech at home? Everybody beats Georgia Tech at home.
| william wrote: |
| How is Wake up? Is it because they beat Georgia Tech at home? Everybody beats Georgia Tech at home. |
For Wake, that was a big win! Actually, you'll notice that GT's power ratings are still pretty solid, so obviously that did help Wake.
I'm still pissed about that NC State loss, and we could easily lose this next game in Cameron. So, to say that I'm worried is a mild understatement. I don't want to throw out the 'Must Win' statement, but I'm pretty close.
I'll say that the ACC is going to get six teams and some deserving mid-major is going to steal an ACC at-large bid that will infuriate Billy Packer and Jim Nantz again.
I'll say that the ACC is going to get six teams and some deserving mid-major is going to steal an ACC at-large bid that will infuriate Billy Packer and Jim Nantz again.
| Dave wrote: |
| If only [UVA] hadn't gone to Puerto Rico. |
How true....but I think another interesting stretch was the week in January when we lost consecutive games to Stanford, UNC, and BC by a combined total of 16 points. If we win one of those games, we're looking pretty good right now.
I am pumped for the UVA-VT game this weekend. Did I just write that? Is it November?
Wake proved at their best they can beat a slumping mid-pack ACC team. Now that's an improvement!!! It's been a tough year to watch so forgive me if I think the upward trend arrow is right on the money.
A couple more quick hits:
- The play of the game for Wake (#1 Sportcenter Play of the Day) that elevated the teams play for the rest of the game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl-tP9fuoDI . This occurred 10 minutes into the game and the Joel was quiet as a library. There has been a buzz in the building everytime he's touched the ball since.
- Paul Hewitt substitutes at such a staggering pace that you better go 10 deep on your bench to keep pace. I seem to relearn this lesson everytime they come to town. There have been many games that I wish Prosser would use the same method to get our youngsters some PT instead of letting them languish on the bench during a 15-point loss.
- Finally, welcome back Dave! The 'net just wasn't the same....
A couple more quick hits:
- The play of the game for Wake (#1 Sportcenter Play of the Day) that elevated the teams play for the rest of the game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl-tP9fuoDI . This occurred 10 minutes into the game and the Joel was quiet as a library. There has been a buzz in the building everytime he's touched the ball since.
- Paul Hewitt substitutes at such a staggering pace that you better go 10 deep on your bench to keep pace. I seem to relearn this lesson everytime they come to town. There have been many games that I wish Prosser would use the same method to get our youngsters some PT instead of letting them languish on the bench during a 15-point loss.
- Finally, welcome back Dave! The 'net just wasn't the same....
| Deacon wrote: |
|
- The play of the game for Wake (#1 Sportcenter Play of the Day) that elevated the teams play for the rest of the game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl-tP9fuoDI . This occurred 10 minutes into the game and the Joel was quiet as a library. There has been a buzz in the building everytime he's touched the ball since. |
I was watching that game with my bro-in-law, only half paying attention. When Williams threw down that dunk we were both stunned. WHO THE HELL WAS THAT? He might be the next Isma'il Muhammad (yes, I had to look that spelling up), a great dunker who isn't really that great of a player.
I was running around like Jim Valvano after the NCAA Championship game after that dunk. It knocked me totally stupid! I regrouped.
I see alot of potential in this LD Williams. I saw the same in Mohammed. I guess only time will tell if he can become a complete player. Williams is already a big improvement over Trent Strickland who would follow up a play like this with a Technical, bad foul, turnover, or really anything that would take the shine off his previous brilliance.
I see alot of potential in this LD Williams. I saw the same in Mohammed. I guess only time will tell if he can become a complete player. Williams is already a big improvement over Trent Strickland who would follow up a play like this with a Technical, bad foul, turnover, or really anything that would take the shine off his previous brilliance.
Wake Forest is truly a fiasco of a team and program. Two years ago, they were number one in the nation, briefly and then stayed deservedly in the top 5 for most of the season.
You would be hard pressed to find many teams who have gone 13-3 one season and then 2-14 the next, but Skip Prosser, author of Wake's classy tie-dyed John 3-16 look and single-track audio system, somehow managed to do it. Even as bad as Matt Doherty's second team was, he only went from 13-3 to 4-12 and then rebounded to 6-10 in Doherty's third year.
Wake Forest will be very fortunate if they can finish 4-12 this year. They should beat Miami for their 3rd win and maybe they can pick off either UVa or Clemson at home, but I wouldn't count on it as Wake seems to trail by at least 20 in every game, even in the Miami game that they somehow won. I loved reading about how pleased the Wake players were with their performance at home against UNC. They honestly thought that staying within 10 for the first 25 minutes and then losing by 29 after hitting a meaningless 3 pointer at the buzzer, was an improvement in performance for them.
Wake currently has the longest basketball streak in the ACC of .500 or better seasons. They won't make it this year. This program is in disarray which is truly lamentable because Dave Odom left the program in good shape. Wake Forest had a chance to be an East Coast Gonzaga had they cemented the program with just a few more good seasons. Unfortunately, the geniuses running the program decided to go out and hire another Xavier retread, after struggling for years under former Xavier coach Bob Staak. Prosser has now managed to squander virtually all of the program's standing. It is pathetic, but most Wake fans don't care because they think they are now a football school.
I hope Wake enjoyed having a fringe top-twenty football team this year, because it will not last and you guys are not leaving the bottom tier of ACC basketball anytime soon.
You would be hard pressed to find many teams who have gone 13-3 one season and then 2-14 the next, but Skip Prosser, author of Wake's classy tie-dyed John 3-16 look and single-track audio system, somehow managed to do it. Even as bad as Matt Doherty's second team was, he only went from 13-3 to 4-12 and then rebounded to 6-10 in Doherty's third year.
Wake Forest will be very fortunate if they can finish 4-12 this year. They should beat Miami for their 3rd win and maybe they can pick off either UVa or Clemson at home, but I wouldn't count on it as Wake seems to trail by at least 20 in every game, even in the Miami game that they somehow won. I loved reading about how pleased the Wake players were with their performance at home against UNC. They honestly thought that staying within 10 for the first 25 minutes and then losing by 29 after hitting a meaningless 3 pointer at the buzzer, was an improvement in performance for them.
Wake currently has the longest basketball streak in the ACC of .500 or better seasons. They won't make it this year. This program is in disarray which is truly lamentable because Dave Odom left the program in good shape. Wake Forest had a chance to be an East Coast Gonzaga had they cemented the program with just a few more good seasons. Unfortunately, the geniuses running the program decided to go out and hire another Xavier retread, after struggling for years under former Xavier coach Bob Staak. Prosser has now managed to squander virtually all of the program's standing. It is pathetic, but most Wake fans don't care because they think they are now a football school.
I hope Wake enjoyed having a fringe top-twenty football team this year, because it will not last and you guys are not leaving the bottom tier of ACC basketball anytime soon.
| william wrote: |
| Correction: Wake went 3-13 last year, not 2-14. |
With two first-team All-ACC-caliber players.
Skip Prosser says the same thing after every game. "Nobody made any shots or free throws or played any defense." Who is supposed to be teaching them how to do these things? How is it possible for an entire team of trained athletes to shoot under 60% from the line?
Dave Odom and Matt Doherty got run off for only making the NIT, but somehow Skip Prosser has now gone a combined 7-23 so far during the last two seasons against ACC competition and no one ever seems to question whether his coaching performance has impacted these Wake teams at all.
Last year, Wake's talent level was not that bad and they went 2-14. Is the talent level clearly worse now? If it is, then why has recruiting dried up all of sudden. State, Carolina and Duke have all lost players early to the NBA, so there is no sense in saying "just think if Chris Paul were here." Well, just think if Luol Deng had been at Duke the last 3 years or if Carolina still had Marvin Williams.
Wake Forest University has clearly proven that it can compete at the top levels of the NCAA, having made the Final 8 twice in the last 25 years, so being small is not an excuse. Gonzaga is small too. I would like to see someone in the media ask Skip Prosser why the bottom has dropped out of his program virtually overnight, instead of letting him blame every defeat on his players.
Virginia improved overnight when Prosser's mentor, Pete Gillen was let go. I, for one, at least wonder whether Wake might improve under different leadership as well.
Dave Odom and Matt Doherty got run off for only making the NIT, but somehow Skip Prosser has now gone a combined 7-23 so far during the last two seasons against ACC competition and no one ever seems to question whether his coaching performance has impacted these Wake teams at all.
Last year, Wake's talent level was not that bad and they went 2-14. Is the talent level clearly worse now? If it is, then why has recruiting dried up all of sudden. State, Carolina and Duke have all lost players early to the NBA, so there is no sense in saying "just think if Chris Paul were here." Well, just think if Luol Deng had been at Duke the last 3 years or if Carolina still had Marvin Williams.
Wake Forest University has clearly proven that it can compete at the top levels of the NCAA, having made the Final 8 twice in the last 25 years, so being small is not an excuse. Gonzaga is small too. I would like to see someone in the media ask Skip Prosser why the bottom has dropped out of his program virtually overnight, instead of letting him blame every defeat on his players.
Virginia improved overnight when Prosser's mentor, Pete Gillen was let go. I, for one, at least wonder whether Wake might improve under different leadership as well.
You make good points, but I disagree that no one is questioning Prosser. All the Wake fans I know are pretty unhappy with him and have been since that '05 team wilted late in the season.
BTW, don't look now, but UVA is all alone in first place in the ACC. In basketball. In February.
Crazy stuff. After Wake's football season, keep your eyes peeled for a plague of locusts.
Crazy stuff. After Wake's football season, keep your eyes peeled for a plague of locusts.
Pretty impressive, especially after I was kind of embarrassed when Carolina "only" beat UVa by 10 at home. UVa has a cupcake schedule the rest of the way and should finish with at least 12 wins. Not bad when you got to play State with Engin and only play BC, Duke and Carolina once each, and get Duke at home.
I hate the non-round-robin format, (which is another reason I detest Wake Forest for voting for expansion) because you really have no honest benchmark for judging between reasonably equal teams in the league.
UVa ended up with reasonable rivals for in VPI and Maryland, but I am not sure that their previous rivalry with UNC wasn't just as strong and now they only play once. Carolina got State and Duke and no longer plays Wake twice. I have heard that Roy Williams is petitioning the ACC that Carolina really hates Clemson much more than Duke, however, and is seeking to have Clemson designated as its rival, along with NC State.
One thing about the Duke game is that I am almost old enough to remember when Carolina's biggest rival was South Carolina and Frank McGuire. Can you imagine if Bobby Knight were coaching NC State now and playing K twice a year? Those games were ugly and the teams hated each other, even though South Carolina's assistant coach Donnie Walsh had gone to UNC and McGuire left Carolina of his own accord. Like Knight, with whom he shares the record for most victories in a season without a loss, McGuire was a Hall of Fame coach eclipsed by his younger protege.
Then I remember when NC State was Carolina's biggest rival and that was from 1972-1977 when South Carolina left the ACC and State got David Thompson and Kenny Carr. Then from 1978 until 1980, Duke was Carolina's big rival. Then from 1981-1984, Uva was Carolina's biggest rival and that could get pretty ugly too, a hold-over from the success that Terry Holland's mediocre teams of the mid-70's had against Carolina in the ACC tournament, beating them in the finals in 1972 when Carolina was number 2 in the nation and then almost beating them the following year with Phil Ford fouled out before God woke up nd had Carolina's scrubs rub out the Wahoos. Also, like McGuire's Gamecocks and K's Duke teams, Virginia was known for a physical style of play that would make Mose Malone blush.
But now we have expansion. Isn't it so much better?
I hate the non-round-robin format, (which is another reason I detest Wake Forest for voting for expansion) because you really have no honest benchmark for judging between reasonably equal teams in the league.
UVa ended up with reasonable rivals for in VPI and Maryland, but I am not sure that their previous rivalry with UNC wasn't just as strong and now they only play once. Carolina got State and Duke and no longer plays Wake twice. I have heard that Roy Williams is petitioning the ACC that Carolina really hates Clemson much more than Duke, however, and is seeking to have Clemson designated as its rival, along with NC State.
One thing about the Duke game is that I am almost old enough to remember when Carolina's biggest rival was South Carolina and Frank McGuire. Can you imagine if Bobby Knight were coaching NC State now and playing K twice a year? Those games were ugly and the teams hated each other, even though South Carolina's assistant coach Donnie Walsh had gone to UNC and McGuire left Carolina of his own accord. Like Knight, with whom he shares the record for most victories in a season without a loss, McGuire was a Hall of Fame coach eclipsed by his younger protege.
Then I remember when NC State was Carolina's biggest rival and that was from 1972-1977 when South Carolina left the ACC and State got David Thompson and Kenny Carr. Then from 1978 until 1980, Duke was Carolina's big rival. Then from 1981-1984, Uva was Carolina's biggest rival and that could get pretty ugly too, a hold-over from the success that Terry Holland's mediocre teams of the mid-70's had against Carolina in the ACC tournament, beating them in the finals in 1972 when Carolina was number 2 in the nation and then almost beating them the following year with Phil Ford fouled out before God woke up nd had Carolina's scrubs rub out the Wahoos. Also, like McGuire's Gamecocks and K's Duke teams, Virginia was known for a physical style of play that would make Mose Malone blush.
But now we have expansion. Isn't it so much better?
Without Engin and UVa beat Carolina in 1976, robbing of us of our destiny to defeat Indiana and protect our record of 32-0 that Indiana ended up tying.
Also, I was thinking and I believe Wake made it to the Final 8 in 1977, losing to Marquette as Charlotte and UNC would go on to do; in 1984; and in 1995, losing to Oklahoma State. Wake is too good of a program to let this happen. It boggles the mind to think that they could have had West Virginia's coach; they should have paid Cincinnati to hire Prosser. Maybe Cincinnati is still interested?
Also, I was thinking and I believe Wake made it to the Final 8 in 1977, losing to Marquette as Charlotte and UNC would go on to do; in 1984; and in 1995, losing to Oklahoma State. Wake is too good of a program to let this happen. It boggles the mind to think that they could have had West Virginia's coach; they should have paid Cincinnati to hire Prosser. Maybe Cincinnati is still interested?
I hate the non-round-robin format
That is one thing all right-thinking fans, regardless of school affiliation, should agree on.
That is one thing all right-thinking fans, regardless of school affiliation, should agree on.
Prosser is the exact opposite of Odom IMHO. Odom's teams were well drilled, well prepared, and generally showed improvement throughout their careers at Wake. But Odom couldn't make game time decisions or adjustments and squandered alot of great team efforts. Odom was consistently out coached in big games. Prosser is much better at managing a game but his teams seem to show up lacking some fundamentals that should have been worked out in practice. Odom took the program as far as he could and I don't for a moment regret the decision to bring Prosser in. But Prosser is under pressure to get a handle on problems that seem related to his team preparation and player development. I hope he can do it because I really like the guy. But if he can't then I think he'll either be forced out or submit to pressure and leave by the end of next season.
| tieguy wrote: |
| I hate the non-round-robin format
That is one thing all right-thinking fans, regardless of school affiliation, should agree on. |
I would assume that there's no debate about this one.
I would argue that no right-thinking ACC fan would argue that expansion from 9 to 12 hasn't been a bust all around.
| Deacon wrote: |
| Prosser is the exact opposite of Odom IMHO. Odom's teams were well drilled, well prepared, and generally showed improvement throughout their careers at Wake. But Odom couldn't make game time decisions or adjustments and squandered alot of great team efforts. Odom was consistently out coached in big games. Prosser is much better at managing a game but his teams seem to show up lacking some fundamentals that should have been worked out in practice. Odom took the program as far as he could and I don't for a moment regret the decision to bring Prosser in. But Prosser is under pressure to get a handle on problems that seem related to his team preparation and player development. I hope he can do it because I really like the guy. But if he can't then I think he'll either be forced out or submit to pressure and leave by the end of next season. |
Odom's main problem (and you could say the same for Terry Holland and Jeff Jones, since they all coached the same way) was that system was limited in how successful it could be. All produced great, physical defenses and solid rebounding, but their offense was mediocre at best. All of them only succeeded when they had individual talents capable of creating offense on their own.
You just can't be consistenly dominant when you are only good on one half of the floor. There's a reason why Dean Smith, Coach K and Roy Williams' teams win every year (well, other than great talent). They all had/have outstanding systems on offense and defense. That's surprisingly rare.
Sure, we all want the round robin format back. But BC has been a worthy addition (it's not like we added Miami for basketball). VA Tech wasn't added for basketball either, but they haven't been a disaster. But remember we could still play the season round robin if we really wanted to, it would just damage how many teams the ACC gets into the tourney.
Separately, I don't see how you can call GA Tech a bubble team, regardless of their marquee wins. I team that has won ZERO road games all season, even at Miami and Wake, has no real chance of making the tourney.
Separately, I don't see how you can call GA Tech a bubble team, regardless of their marquee wins. I team that has won ZERO road games all season, even at Miami and Wake, has no real chance of making the tourney.
Virginia Tech fits as a natural rival. They should have brought either South Carolina or West Virginia in instead of BC. West Virginia is just as good as BC in both sports and is only 2 hours from the University of Maryland.
Dave, do an article on that thing about Uva and its offense. That would be fascinating. It is always interesting to see guys like Al McGuire who win without doing a lot coaching, by just letting the guys play. People used to say it about Smith, that he overcoached and of course they say that other guys always lose at the end because they undercoach.
Dave, do an article on that thing about Uva and its offense. That would be fascinating. It is always interesting to see guys like Al McGuire who win without doing a lot coaching, by just letting the guys play. People used to say it about Smith, that he overcoached and of course they say that other guys always lose at the end because they undercoach.
| william wrote: |
| Virginia Tech fits as a natural rival. They should have brought either South Carolina or West Virginia in instead of BC. West Virginia is just as good as BC in both sports and is only 2 hours from the University of Maryland. |
Yes, I talked about this back when it happened. I just didn't like the idea of expansion because the size would cause problems like the loss of round-robin in basketball, the expansion of the basketball tournament and the difficulty in properly tracking more teams. On top of that, the teams they picked, Virginia Tech aside, were terrible cultural choices. In keeping with the ACC's culture, the logical choices were VT, USC, WV, Georgia, etc.
But of course, those were either very unlikely or didn't properly expand the football and TV market, which is what it was really all about.
But hey, what's wrong with risking ruining ACC basketball if we can bring in some more football money, am I right?
| william wrote: |
| Dave, do an article on that thing about Uva and its offense. That would be fascinating. It is always interesting to see guys like Al McGuire who win without doing a lot coaching, by just letting the guys play. People used to say it about Smith, that he overcoached and of course they say that other guys always lose at the end because they undercoach. |
I'd love to have the time to do that right! Odds are, it will never happen though.
If you can't, maybe you could sketch out more of what this UVa coaching style consisted of. Terry Holland, played for Lefty at Davidson, and then succeeded him there, but his style always seemed ugly, if effective, compared to Lefty's more aesthetic fast-paced action. It sounds as though you see similarities in Holland, Jeff Jones at American University and Dave Odom at USC.
Posted by Dave at February 5, 2007 04:23 PM
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