Dave Sez

Bubble Watch - 2/19/2007

Things are getting serious. Nine ACC teams have a very good chance of getting into the NCAA Tournament - although not all nine will - but only three have wrapped up bids with two weeks left. Carolina is really only playing for seeding - a one or a two - at this point. It probably doesn't make that much difference this year, as there aren't enough really good teams out that to make it all that different if they are lined up against a three seed (as a two) or a four (as a one) to get to the Final Four.

Duke and Maryland have also both sewn up bids. That Maryland claim may surprise some, but the Terps have quietly won three straight and now have 20 wins. There is no way in hell that an ACC team gets 20 wins and doesn't get a bid, especially in a year where like this, where the ACC is very good (but not quite great).

The conventional wisdom is that two teams, Clemson and Florida State, have played their way out of the tournament. I disagree. The Noles certainly have put themselves in a bit of a whole, but Clemson's situation is nowhere near as dire as some would think. The Tigers have already won 19 games and still have an RPI of 30. Those are NCAA-worthy numbers. Sure, they are sliding, but one more win out of their final four will get them to 20. I already stated my position on that. I don't believe ACC team has ever gotten to 20 wins and missed out on a bid. 19 wins is no guarantee, but 20 seems to be the magic number. I think the Tigers will make it.

FSU needs to win at least two of their final three and then get one or two ACC Tourney wins to feel safe.

Georgia Tech is still an interesting team. Their overall record is worse than all the ACC bubble teams except for Florida State. They have a losing ACC record. They've lost to both Miami and Wake Forest. But the computers still like them. Joe Lunardi says they're in. So does the Dance Card. In reality, they probably need to win two of their last four games to feel somewhat comfortable, although they'd really want to follow that up with a first-round ACC Tournament win. Three of those last four contests are against Virginia (on the road), BC and UNC. No easy ones there, but they do get Wake at home and that should be a gimme, especially considering that they lost in Winston-Salem earlier.

The three other teams who are on the high side of the bubble right now are Virginia, Boston College and Virginia Tech. The former Big Easters had tough weekends, while the Cavs got a solid win over Florida State. Virginia and Virginia Tech both had pretty meager computer ratings just a few weeks ago and have been steadily climbing to where they are in pretty good shape. None of these three teams can afford to lose out, but all are probably just a win or two from being a lock, particularly BC and UVA who already have nine league wins. Supposedly the Committee doesn't consider conference records in making their decision, but there's no way that they turn down an ACC team that won 10 conference games. No freaking way.

One interesting statistical note is that UNC lost their fourth game this week, a home upset by Virginia Tech, and yet lost nothing in the computer ratings. In fact, they actually jumped up in the Dance Card rankings from 7 to 2. I really can't explain that. I went ahead and pointed their arrow down anyway because that just makes sense.

The table below is in the same format as the one from last week. I included several pertinent rankings and colored in the teams according to their NCAA standing (in my opinion) at this point. Red = out, Green = in and Yellow = could go either way. I was probably a bit harsh on UVA and Clemson because I really think both are in at this point.

Final games for bubble teams:

BC: @VT, Clemson, @GT (Pomeroy says 1-2)
VT: BC, Miami, @UVA, Clemson (Pomeroy says 3-1)
Clemson: Duke, @BC, Miami, @VT (Pomeroy says 1-3)
GT: WF, @UVA, UNC, BC (Pomeroy says 3-1)
UVA: @Miami, GT, VT, @WF (Pomeroy says 3-1)
FSU: @MD, NCSU, @Miami (Pomeroy says 2-1)