February 23, 2007
Bubble Watch - 2/23/2007
With things so tight for so many ACC teams, it's worth checking on the standings after each game. While it wasn't a good week for the bubble teams - BC, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson all damaged their standings - things are quite as bad as most would have you believe. If you listen to the TV folks and read what's being written in the papers, you might think that UVA, BC, Clemson and Florida State are all out of the tourney right now. Not so.
From what I'm seeing, only Florida State has played their way out of the tournament at this point. Georgia Tech, Clemson and UVA are all iffy, but still in, while Boston College is in perfectly fine shape. Obviously, each of those teams needs to win another game or two, but they will. They pretty much have to, since some will play each other both in the regular season and in the ACC Tournament.
The current ratings:
| Team | Overall | ACC | Postseason | Trend | ||||
| North Carolina | 24-4 | 10-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 Seed |
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| Duke | 21-7 | 8-6 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 4 Seed |
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| Maryland | 21-7 | 7-6 | 12 | 21 | 13 | 17 | 5 Seed |
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| Virginia Tech | 19-8 | 9-4 | 27 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 6 Seed |
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| Boston College | 18-9 | 9-5 | 35 | 23 | 28 | 29 | 7 Seed |
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| Clemson | 19-8 | 5-8 | 24 | 28 | 25 | 35 | 9 Seed |
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| Georgia Tech | 18-9 | 6-7 | 15 | 40 | 19 | 44 | 10 Seed |
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| Virginia | 18-8 | 9-4 | 48 | 33 | 31 | 47 | 10 Seed |
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| Florida St. | 17-11 | 5-9 | 39 | 63 | 44 | 41 | NIT |
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| North Carolina St. | 14-12 | 4-9 | 74 | 107 | 93 | 119 | NIT |
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| Wake Forest | 13-14 | 4-10 | 91 | 113 | 91 | 121 | Wishing for a new coach? |
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| Miami FL | 11-16 | 5-9 | 96 | 131 | 128 | 149 | South Beach |
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Final games for bubble teams:
BC: Clemson, @GT (Pomeroy says 1-1) - One win probably clinches things
VT: Miami, @UVA, Clemson (Pomeroy says 2-1) - Probably already in, but one win cements it
Clemson: @BC, Miami, @VT (Pomeroy says 1-2) - Despite their collapse, one win puts them in pretty good shape. A road upset would be really nice.
GT: @UVA, UNC, BC (Pomeroy says 2-1) - They might need two to feel really good about things, but that could be tough. One here and one in the ACC Tourney might be enough.
UVA: GT, VT, @WF (Pomeroy says 2-1) - They blew one easy chance, but they still have three winnable games. Two would clinch things.
FSU: NCSU, @Miami (Pomeroy says 2-0) - They absolutely need both games and will probably need at least one ACC Tourney win too.
BTW, I'll ask again, nicely this time. ACC cellar dwellers, please, please stop winning games. Just take one (two or three) for the team. The ACC thanks you and your budgets will too. Remember, more Tourney teams means more money.
| scacchoops.com wrote: |
| Dave, one win gets Clemson in? Seriously, 6-10 is enough? Only FSU has done that previously in ACC history. I just don't see it. |
The committee really doesn't look much at conference records. One win and Clemson would have 20 wins overall. Right now, their RPI is 35 which is pretty good for getting a bid. I'm not sure too many (if any) teams that high have ever not gotten a bid. Granted, this Clemson team would be a good test case, given how they've tanked recently.
So who made the tournament over the last five years? Well, for starters, any major conference team that did *any* of the following things:
- Won 21 or more games
- Earned a spot in the top 37 teams ranked by RPI at season's end
- Won seven or more games against the RPI top 50
- Ranked in the top nine in non-conference RPI
- Won eight or more of their last 10 games
- Won 10 or more road/neutral games
The part in bold is the only criterion Clemson satisfies at the moment (and only if the season ended today). They're sitting at 19-8, their RPI is 35 (using Pomeroy's numbers there and for the rest of the post), they're 5-7 against the top 50, their nonconf. RPI rank is 26, they will not be able to go 8-2 in their last 10 (not even close), and they're 7-4 in road/neutral games.
If they only win one more game and lose the rest, I think it's safe to say that their RPI will drop below the magic number of 37, and it's definitely going to be no bid for them. In fact, that might happen even if they win two more games and lose their Thursday game in the ACC Tournament -- or if they win one game out of the last three and the Thursday game against a low-RPI team (Florida State would be their opponent right now, and how much a RPI boost they will give Clemson -- if Clemson wins -- depends on how FSU finishes the season; if Clemson ends up playing NCSU, WF, or Miami, they will likely gain very little even if they win).
In short, I think Clemson needs to win two of its last three games.
| scacchoops.com wrote: |
| The difference is rarely has a team had such a collapse in a season as Clemson has this season. They are certainly an exception to these "historical rules". With a loss today they will follow up their 17-0 start by going 2-8 in their last 10 games. |
That's a fair point. It's hard to say how the committee will consider that. It will definitely depend on how the Tigers do in their last four+ games.
(My entire weekend is being ruined by anticipation of the Duke-Carolina women's game tomorrow. C'mon, get here faster!)
| tieguy wrote: |
| (My entire weekend is being ruined by anticipation of the Duke-Carolina women's game tomorrow. C'mon, get here faster!) |
Seriously?
(And Jacobs has a great mini-piece on Clemson's FT shooting today, BTW.)
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