March 06, 2007
Bubble Watch - 3/6/2007
C'est fini.
Done.
The regular season is yesterday's nose ... er news. All three of the ACC bubble teams did what they had to do over the weekend. Was it enough? For Georgia Tech, I'd say probably so. They beat Boston College for another solid win and that pushed them to 20 wins overall. Still, they are going to get dinged for their road record and their overall power numbers. I suspect the Jackets are in win or lose, but they'd better beat Wake Forest on Thursday to be sure.
Clemson had the best win of the weekend, going to Blacksburg and winning on senior day. Given their struggles and how important Virginia Tech's seniors have been, this might have been the most surprising result of they year. Well, might have been had this year not been so crazy. Still, it was huuuuge for the Tigers. Most national pundits still have them out of the Dance, but as you know, I've been optimistic about their chances for a few weeks now. I'll say the same thing I've been saying, look at their overall record and their power numbers. Everyone seems to be caught up in their recent slide, but this team has still won 21 games and has an RPI of 36. I simply can't imagine an ACC team with those stats being overlooked. Well, I can imagine it, but it shouldn't happen. Remember, no 20-win ACC squad has ever been left out.
Finally, we have the Seminoles of Florida State. They damn near torpedoed their season by losing to Miami, but behind Al Thornton's 45 points, they pulled it out in OT. That win didn't impress the computers much, but a win is always better than a loss. The 'Noles now have 19 wins and Joe Lunardi says they are just barely out. I suspect they are bit farther away than that, but either way, they aren't in yet.
And that brings us to what is probably the most interesting game on Thursday game - Clemson versus Florida State. Winner gets in? Probably not, but it's close. More accurately, the loser misses out. Clemson might, might be able to get in with a loss, but that's not true for FSU. In fact, I suspect that Florida State would need to beat both Clemson and North Carolina on Friday to get a bid. Beating the Tigers alone just wouldn't impress enough folks. On the flip side, if Clemson wins, they would have 22 victories and a three-game winning streak going into their Friday game. That would put them in.
Given all that, I'm rooting for Clemson. I don't think there's any way that both are getting in, so I'm going with the squad with the best chance. It's quite likely that the ACC can get eight teams in the NCAAs and I'd love that. Go Tigers!
| Team | Overall | ACC | Postseason | Trend | |||||
| North Carolina | 25-6 | 11-5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 Seed | 1 Seed |
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| Duke | 22-9 | 8-8 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 7 Seed | 5 Seed |
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| Maryland | 24-7 | 10-6 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 4 Seed | 4 Seed |
|
| Virginia Tech | 20-10 | 10-6 | 27 | 35 | 28 | 31 | 5 Seed | 6 Seed |
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| Boston College | 19-10 | 10-6 | 40 | 25 | 29 | 30 | 7 Seed | 8 Seed |
|
| Virginia | 20-9 | 11-5 | 45 | 29 | 32 | 41 | 5 Seed | 7 Seed |
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| Clemson | 21-9 | 7-9 | 24 | 32 | 26 | 36 | Out | 11 Seed |
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| Georgia Tech | 20-10 | 8-8 | 14 | 37 | 15 | 34 | 10 Seed | 10 Seed |
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| Florida St. | 19-11 | 7-9 | 37 | 65 | 40 | 48 | 5th Out | NIT |
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| North Carolina St. | 15-14 | 5-11 | 78 | 110 | 97 | 114 |
| NIT |
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| Wake Forest | 14-15 | 5-11 | 85 | 124 | 89 | 124 |
| Does Tim Duncan have a little brother? |
|
| Miami FL | 11-19 | 4-12 | 93 | 161 | 134 | 164 |
| Mojitos around! |
|
The loss of Sean Williams will make the committee round them down though. Clearly they played better ball with him in the lineup.
One wonders what the point of even playing the regular season is when 9 teams from the ACC get into the tourney. Why not just let them all in then? Wake obviously could win a game or two if the stars were aligned right.
I think it is time to adopt a rule restricting conferences to 4 teams per year. It would make the regular season more important and would make the conference tourneys matter again instead of being the charade they currently are. I would much rather watch some of the mid-majors than watch some 7-9 team from the SEC West go out in the first round.
BTW, Villanova won it all in '85 as a #8 seed.
| Jerry wrote: |
| Yeah, that UNC team (with Cota, Haywood, and a freshman Forte) did make it all the way to the Final Four, where they lost to Florida -- it was a tight game until the officials put four fouls on Cota for pretty silly, incidental stuff. Wisconsin also made the Final Four as a #8 that year (losing to eventual champ Michigan State). |
I actually went to that Final Four. My wife got the tickets for me as a surprise Christmas gift. She actually thought - get this! - that Virginia had a good chance of being there. This was the year (I think) that Pete Gillen's jokes got Virginia ranked as high as #4 early in the year before everyone realized that they completely sucked. And then Carolina made their surprise run, making her damn happy she got me those tickets (she's a Tar Heel).
Geez William, not every team can be Carolina, OK? Fans of George Mason will have wonderful memories for a lifetime from last year's run. Valparaiso will be remembered for 50 years for their miracle play & shot. I can't even remember what Harold "The Show" Arceneaux did, but I know his name. A trip to the tourney can affect a player's/coach's/fan's life forever, without actually winning the whole thing.
Are you seriously telling us that you never root for the underdog, never pull for the little guy?
He beat Carolina, actually, so maybe that wasn't the best example to bring up to get a rational response from william ;)
| Dave wrote: |
| I actually went to that Final Four. My wife got the tickets for me as a surprise Christmas gift. She actually thought - get this! - that Virginia had a good chance of being there. This was the year (I think) that Pete Gillen's jokes got Virginia ranked as high as #4 early in the year before everyone realized that they completely sucked. And then Carolina made their surprise run, making her damn happy she got me those tickets (she's a Tar Heel). |
IIRC, didn't UVa finish 9-7 in the ACC that year and then get snubbed by the NCAA Tournament selection committee? I think that was the first time a team with a winning record in ACC play was left out of the NCAAs and it surprised a lot of people (though fewer will be surprised if it happens to an ACC team these days -- our conference was smaller and more powerful from top to bottom then).
| Jerry wrote: | ||
IIRC, didn't UVa finish 9-7 in the ACC that year and then get snubbed by the NCAA Tournament selection committee? I think that was the first time a team with a winning record in ACC play was left out of the NCAAs and it surprised a lot of people (though fewer will be surprised if it happens to an ACC team these days -- our conference was smaller and more powerful from top to bottom then). |
Yes, that's the year that happened. Carolina also finished 9-7 in the ACC, but got a bid despite the fact that UVA swept the Heels.
The Cavaliers celebrated by losing to Georgetown in the first round of the NIT.
Good times.
It's easy to look at the RPI/Dance card/etc ratings and think Clemson has a better chance than FSU, but I think FSU has more big wins this year, and the added factor of Toney Douglas being hurt for a number of their losses (which the committee is supposed to factor in). On top of that, Thornton can be/sometimes is one of the best players in the nation. Apart from liking Purnell, I think I'd rather see FSU in the tourny.
| Ted in Durham wrote: |
| I agree UVa got jobbed that year.
It's easy to look at the RPI/Dance card/etc ratings and think Clemson has a better chance than FSU, but I think FSU has more big wins this year, and the added factor of Toney Douglas being hurt for a number of their losses (which the committee is supposed to factor in). On top of that, Thornton can be/sometimes is one of the best players in the nation. Apart from liking Purnell, I think I'd rather see FSU in the tourny. |
Yes, Douglas and Thornton are two good points in FSU's favor. As is the win over Florida. They lost to the only other good teams they played outside the ACC. They were also swept by Clemson, although I guess I gave a good example of how that's not always a factor.
Frankly, looking at Clemson's record again, there aren't too many impressive wins.
If they beat FSU tomorrow though, that's 22 wins and a 3-0 record against the Noles. They'd have to be a higher pick.
Number of mid-majors sure to steal at-large bids away so far: 2 (Southern Illinois, Butler).
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