March 09, 2007
Thursday Thoughts
What a crazy day, huh? Four games, four wins by the lower seeds. I bet that's never happened in the ACC Tournament before. Of course, that's a pretty easy bet since until a couple of years ago, the only days with four games were Fridays and four upsets would have to include an 8 or 9 beating a 1. Still, I know I'm not the only one surprised how the games turned out. The only one I picked correctly was NC State beating Duke.
My other randomly ordered thoughts:
- I think I'm ready to hop off of the Clemson bandwagon. I still think there's a decent chance that they'll get in and be the school all the "experts" complain about, but I'm not as optimistic as I was yesterday. As someone pointed out to me the other day, they really don't have enough good wins. Still, they do have 21 wins and an RPI of 45. Not spectacular, but that's good enough to get in. But they won't.
- OK, what about FSU? They now have 20 wins, and RPI of 38, a star player and another player returned from injury. Can they get the bid that the Tigers fumbled? A win over Carolina would make them a sure thing. A loss? I don't know. My hunch is that they'd miss out.
- I owe Frank Haith an apology. I've been dogging his coaching ability for a couple of years now, but I've been really impressed with the Hurricanes' play over the past couple of weeks. They've had serious injury problems, they booted their most talented player (point guard Denis Clemente), their season was pretty much over, and yet they've rallied. They beat UVA, they took a desperate Clemson to OT, they took a desperate FSU to OT and then they upset Maryland, the hottest team in the league. You have to chalk that up to some good coaching. Maybe Haith will work out afterall.
- A special Thank You to Maryland and Duke for making me look like an idiot. I touted both as potential Final Four ACC teams on the radio on Wednesday. Thanks a lot.
- Like Miami, Wake Forest has impressed me of late. Their defense is light years ahead of where it was even a month ago. They are pressuring the ball and wings all over the court. It's they finally realized that they are young, deep and athletic - use it for something! One top of that, Ishmael Smith has really stepped up his game and is playing some of the best point work in the league. Like a lot of freshmen, he started the year strong and then lost his way in conference play, probably taken back a bit by the level of competition. He has regained his confidence though and is really using his quickness as a weapon. 15 assists last night!
- Am I the only one who watches NC State when they play like last night and wonders why this team is just a shade over .500? The easy answer is that Atsur missed a bunch of games, but still the rest of those guys can play as well. When they have things rolling, they might just be the most aesthetically pleasing team in the league. I'm fairly sure those words were never written about a Herb Sendek team.
- Hey Maryland, one more thing. Box out. Seriously.
- Harvey Hale scored 21 points in overtime? Holy cow! He had 1 point in the first 40 minutes and 21 in the extra 10? I wish I could have stayed up to see that! Sadly, my sofa is too comfy.
- Georgia Tech might have put themselves in a tough spot for the NCAAs as well. Folks seem to be assuming they're in, but I'm not sure why. Like FSU, they have 20 wins, but their RPI is 50! Why GTU and not FSU?
Comments
The improvement in the teams that won yesterday is really impressive. Wake & Miami are stunningly better than they were early in the conference season.
I don't think GT lost much ground yesterday. Looking around the country, the number of bubble teams that dribbled the ball off their foot is huge. Only Arkansas acted like they wanted to play their way into the tourney, and they'd need another win to catch up to GT. It's a good day to root against teams -- Illinois, Purdue & Kansas State.
I can only hope that today is as filled with upsets as yesterday was. I would love to see a Florida State/NC State final. I can't think of anything that would show the depth of the league better than that.
I don't think GT lost much ground yesterday. Looking around the country, the number of bubble teams that dribbled the ball off their foot is huge. Only Arkansas acted like they wanted to play their way into the tourney, and they'd need another win to catch up to GT. It's a good day to root against teams -- Illinois, Purdue & Kansas State.
I can only hope that today is as filled with upsets as yesterday was. I would love to see a Florida State/NC State final. I can't think of anything that would show the depth of the league better than that.
What do people really think the chances are of an FSU win today? I mean, we'll find out in about two hours. Personally I agree with DMoore, I'd love to see them in the final, but I just dont see FSU topping UNC.
Hey Maryland, one more thing. Box out. Seriously.
This is why their late run has been so baffling to me. They have a lot of fundamental problems, particularly among the big guys-- Gist and Ibekwe play awful post defense and never box out, but rely on sheer physical talent to recover.
And yet, they've been getting away with it, for some reason I can't quite figure out. It's almost reassuring to see them lose to Miami, though, because it convinces me that I'm not actually crazy.
This is why their late run has been so baffling to me. They have a lot of fundamental problems, particularly among the big guys-- Gist and Ibekwe play awful post defense and never box out, but rely on sheer physical talent to recover.
And yet, they've been getting away with it, for some reason I can't quite figure out. It's almost reassuring to see them lose to Miami, though, because it convinces me that I'm not actually crazy.
| orzelc wrote: |
| Hey Maryland, one more thing. Box out. Seriously.
This is why their late run has been so baffling to me. They have a lot of fundamental problems, particularly among the big guys-- Gist and Ibekwe play awful post defense and never box out, but rely on sheer physical talent to recover. And yet, they've been getting away with it, for some reason I can't quite figure out. It's almost reassuring to see them lose to Miami, though, because it convinces me that I'm not actually crazy. |
No, you aren't crazy. Frankly, the little things have been Maryland's problems for a few years now.
And hey, welcome Chad. I check your site out quite a bit. http://scienceblogs.com/principles/
I think FSU's chances are better than you'd expect. They're playing extremely well, and UNC has been a bit off at the end of the season.
Also, I've always believed that the first round bye is not always an advantage. The other team has already worked some of the tourney jitters out of their system, is already in the flow of playing together, and hasn't yet played enough to be worn out.
I didn't see any injuries that would hamper FSU. How will Hansbrough play with a mask on?
Also, I've always believed that the first round bye is not always an advantage. The other team has already worked some of the tourney jitters out of their system, is already in the flow of playing together, and hasn't yet played enough to be worn out.
I didn't see any injuries that would hamper FSU. How will Hansbrough play with a mask on?
Hah, if you are watching on ESPN 360, we're getting live warmups with mikes on from the announcers...michelle whatshername practicing her courtside commentary, and mike patrick asking an assistant for a tissue or piece of paper or something. No Vitale running his mouth about coaches comments though.
Oh, one other BIG thing that should be pointed out. This game is in Florida. If there was ever a time for FSU to make a run at the title, this is it. After yesterday, there should be a LOT of tickets available for FSU fans to buy up.
According to the pregame, UNC ticket office sold out their allottment and tickets they got from another school as well. Plenty of UNC fans in the arena today.
Dave, Dave, Dave, Dave, Dave.
If I have to harp on any one point, it is this. Just because Maryland and Duke lost in the ACC tournament, that doesn't really imply anything about their Final Four prospects. Did you think that UNC and Maryland had had it in 2002 and 2005 when they lost in the ACC tournament. Both teams won it all. In 2004, GIT barely beat UNC in the ACC tourney, but made it to the final game.
I think that Duke will go deeper in the NCAA tournament this year than they did last year. I can see them in the Final Four, although the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight is probably where they will finish, because for once, they should be rested.
If I have to harp on any one point, it is this. Just because Maryland and Duke lost in the ACC tournament, that doesn't really imply anything about their Final Four prospects. Did you think that UNC and Maryland had had it in 2002 and 2005 when they lost in the ACC tournament. Both teams won it all. In 2004, GIT barely beat UNC in the ACC tourney, but made it to the final game.
I think that Duke will go deeper in the NCAA tournament this year than they did last year. I can see them in the Final Four, although the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight is probably where they will finish, because for once, they should be rested.
Good point, William. How many of those teams lost in the first round though? And Maryland looked particularly bad against a pretty weak team.
I think that Dmoore makes a good point.
In terms of science, it probably involves the psychological principle of mental ownership of an object or place. An individual or animal generally performs better or tests given by psychologists when undertaking them at "home." When you observe some teams, like GIT, the effect is quite strong and makes it difficult to evaluate Georgia Tech when they play away from Atlanta.
By already having won one game at the arena, FSU becomes in a sense, the "home" team against Carolina. This is another aspect of the ACC tournament that somewhat differs from the NCAA tourney and renders its results somewhat suspect, although we may see a similar principle when Duke plays in the Meadowlands in the NCAA's since they usually play a couple of games there during the regular season.
In terms of science, it probably involves the psychological principle of mental ownership of an object or place. An individual or animal generally performs better or tests given by psychologists when undertaking them at "home." When you observe some teams, like GIT, the effect is quite strong and makes it difficult to evaluate Georgia Tech when they play away from Atlanta.
By already having won one game at the arena, FSU becomes in a sense, the "home" team against Carolina. This is another aspect of the ACC tournament that somewhat differs from the NCAA tourney and renders its results somewhat suspect, although we may see a similar principle when Duke plays in the Meadowlands in the NCAA's since they usually play a couple of games there during the regular season.
You know, the home team idea was a really good theory, but how come every time I hear cheers in the game, it's when UNC makes a good play? Is this the reality of a basketball school vs. a football school? Carolina fans who were starved for an ACC championship? Or maybe just really tired of cold weather?
It sure SOUNDS like a home game for UNC.
It sure SOUNDS like a home game for UNC.
Carolina has the most fans of any ACC school and they travel well. Of course, I'm talking basketball only.
Georgia Tech's RPI problems all come down to one thing: this team simply has no clue how to win on the road. They're 1-9 on an opponent's court this year (and have a neutral site win in Maui) after going winless on the road last year. Since the RPI weighs road wins so heavily, that lowers Tech's ranking in the index (they do have some good wins, they just happen to be in the ATL). Right now, I think they're sweating on the bubble alongside everybody else, though I think they'll end up getting in (though probably as a #9-#10 seed).
Re: N.C. State -- Herb's teams weren't bad on the eyes when they run the Princeton to perfection and simply drill threes or backdoor cut you to pieces. I've thought since mid-season that Costner and McCauley were one of the most efficient frontcourts in the conference (probably second to Hansbrough & Wright -- the Wolfpack guys should be THE best frontcourt come next season). Those two will fill up next year, but State's fortunes will rest on ballhandling and defense. They turned the ball over an awful lot this year (a lot of it was a function of Grant -- not a good decision maker -- handling the rock when Atsur was out) and they get an "incomplete" rating on their defense: it was obviously that they lacked the depth to play aggressive defense this year, but then we can't take it for granted that Lowe knows how to teach solid, aggressive defense. NC State will have question marks next year (new point guard, how they play D), but with McCauley, Costner, and the recruits they're bringing in, they should definitely have a better season record-wise.
Re: N.C. State -- Herb's teams weren't bad on the eyes when they run the Princeton to perfection and simply drill threes or backdoor cut you to pieces. I've thought since mid-season that Costner and McCauley were one of the most efficient frontcourts in the conference (probably second to Hansbrough & Wright -- the Wolfpack guys should be THE best frontcourt come next season). Those two will fill up next year, but State's fortunes will rest on ballhandling and defense. They turned the ball over an awful lot this year (a lot of it was a function of Grant -- not a good decision maker -- handling the rock when Atsur was out) and they get an "incomplete" rating on their defense: it was obviously that they lacked the depth to play aggressive defense this year, but then we can't take it for granted that Lowe knows how to teach solid, aggressive defense. NC State will have question marks next year (new point guard, how they play D), but with McCauley, Costner, and the recruits they're bringing in, they should definitely have a better season record-wise.
Re: Wake -- nobody played good defense in that game last night. Not Tech, not the Deacs. Ishmael Smith has holes in his game (shooting, recognizing defenses, turnovers), but no one can ever rag on his quickness and passing ability. IMO, he's Quentin Thomas with a higher ceiling.
One last thing... "GTU"?
One last thing... "GTU"?
| Jerry wrote: |
| One last thing... "GTU"? |
A little joke. It's come up in some of the other threads this week. Stephon Marbury famously announced that he would attending "Georgia Tech University."
Kills me that only the Duke-State game was on TV last night. I had to stay up until 1am last night for other reasons; would have killed to see that 2OT game.
Oh, and forget all the lower seeds winning- has there ever been a day at the tourney where every game was within one point in the final minute? Where three of four were tied with less than ten seconds left? Wildness.
| tieguy wrote: |
| Kills me that only the Duke-State game was on TV last night. I had to stay up until 1am last night for other reasons; would have killed to see that 2OT game. |
Where do you live?
NYC. I could have gotten the ACC games had I paid some extortionary amount for ESPN PPV, or if I'd been able to just go to a bar, which I couldn't yesterday. Today I can go to a bar... but of course today the games are on ESPN2.
(whoda thunk only a few years ago that moving from Boston to NYC would make my ACC TV situation worse?)
(whoda thunk only a few years ago that moving from Boston to NYC would make my ACC TV situation worse?)
Yeah, ESPN had the rights to the ACC Tournament locked up. When they added three more Thursday games, ESPN did NOT have those rights. They only had the 7 o'clock timeslot, which is why the Duke-State game was the only one on ESPN2 yesterday.
Today, down here we get the games on two different channels, Raycom and ESPN.
Today, down here we get the games on two different channels, Raycom and ESPN.
| martin wrote: |
| Aren't the games on ESPN blacked out in ACC country? |
Not today there weren't, at least not on DirecTV. I think it was this way last year too. But when it happens during the season, like UNC-Duke games, it is blacked out. Not sure why that is.
My ACC games have been blacked out on Directv. It may depend on your zip code. Sometimes they make mistakes and I get games that should have been blacked out. I thought it was strange last night that our local channel 20 only showed one of the games last night.
Posted by Dave at March 9, 2007 11:03 AM
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