March 11, 2007
NCAA Tourney Quick Thoughts
Random, quick thoughts upon seeing the brackets:
- Seven teams for the ACC! Very cool for the conference and for Georgia Tech.
- Seven teams for the ACC could be a trap. Only two, UNC and UVA, are seeded to reach the Sweet Sixteen, and we all know that Virginia isn't really good enough to warrant a 4-seed. And outside of Carolina, none of the teams can claim they are going in on a high note. I really hope it's not a first-weekend bloodbath.
- How about that one pod with Kansas, Kentucky and Villanova? Two of college hoops' elite royalty along with a recent power and owner of one of the sport's most legendary teams.
- Winthrop got an 11? Notre Dame may be in some big trouble.
- Similarly, Maryland better be very careful with that 12-seed Davidson. Davidson is no pushover.
- It's just weird to see Duke as a 6 seed, even though that's about what they deserved. They'll probably be the most talked-about 6 seed in tourney history.
- I like that pod that has Virginia Tech, Illinois and Southern Illinois. Anyone who hasn't followed college hoops carefully would never guess that it's the Salukis who are the high seed. On top of that, I love the potential second-round matchup of the two intra-state rivals. BTW, that's a tough break for the Hokies. You just don't expect to see a program like Illinois as your first round opponent when you pull a 5 seed.
- If they can win their first game, I think Pitt is a great second-round opponent for Duke. The Panthers are plodding and don't score a lot of points. The Devils have more problems with quick teams who can light it up.
- Check this list of 8/9 seeds - Arizona, Purdue, Kentucky, Villanova, Marquette, Michigan State. That's almost a who's who of great college programs. And BYU and Xavier are perennial tourney teams as well.
- The South region looks weak to me.
- Virginia got a 4? Virginia got a 4! That's pretty crazy. I guess the committee looks at the conference standings a lot more than they admit, because that's the only possible explanation for that. But I'm not complaining!
- With only eight at-large bids, I guess all the talk of the new age of the Mid-Majors was overblown.
- How about Rick Pitino taking his team to Lexington for the first two rounds? Think he'll get booed much? And the Cardinals better be careful against Stanford (Cardinals vs. Cardinal - the committee is too cute sometimes). The Cardinal is a pretty tough squad with some talented big men.
Comments
You've got some seedings screwed up. Maryland's a four seed - and thus seeded to reach the Sweet 16 - while Davidson's a 13.
| Carolina March wrote: |
| You've got some seedings screwed up. Maryland's a four seed - and thus seeded to reach the Sweet 16 - while Davidson's a 13. |
Doh! You're right. I should have double-checked my notes.
Well, I maintain my opinion that that's a dangerous game for the Terps.
It does screw my point about teams seeded for the Sweet Sixteen through. Make it three. At least three need to make it that far for the tourney not to appear a bust.
Winthrop over Notre Dame was also the first upset I saw... especially if you were watching the 'in-house' camera shots of both of those teams. Winthrop was excited and happy, Notre Dame looked basically disinterested.
At first glance, Xavier/BYU looks like the weakest of the 8/9 games. Xavier won a bunch of conference games to finish strong, though.
Southern Illinois might be a poster child (along with Dook) for showing how broken the RPI is. They didn't beat anyone besides VT real early - I don't count Missouri State or Creighton as 'someone' really - and other midmajors. Yet they rate a 4 seed ?
Indiana beat one good team all year I think, Wisconsin at home. They had an easy big 10 schedule, and lost a number down the stretch. Why a 7 ? Why are they in and not Syracuse, FSU, etc ? Oh, I know, they beat powerhouse Southern Illinois :p
I think Maryland should reach the sweet sixteen. Virginia / Tennessee will be a good game, if Albany doesnt catch UVa on a down night.
At first glance, Xavier/BYU looks like the weakest of the 8/9 games. Xavier won a bunch of conference games to finish strong, though.
Southern Illinois might be a poster child (along with Dook) for showing how broken the RPI is. They didn't beat anyone besides VT real early - I don't count Missouri State or Creighton as 'someone' really - and other midmajors. Yet they rate a 4 seed ?
Indiana beat one good team all year I think, Wisconsin at home. They had an easy big 10 schedule, and lost a number down the stretch. Why a 7 ? Why are they in and not Syracuse, FSU, etc ? Oh, I know, they beat powerhouse Southern Illinois :p
I think Maryland should reach the sweet sixteen. Virginia / Tennessee will be a good game, if Albany doesnt catch UVa on a down night.
Illinois is a crappy team. I watched some of their semifinal game against Wisconsin and that game has to qualify for cruel and unusual punishment against the Big Ten viewing audience. Someone should file a class action lawsuit. The Hokies will have no trouble with the Illini.
-Apparently, Gary Walters loves to test UNC. If the seeds hold (which, as we all know, is very unlikely), then UNC has to REALLY earn its way to Georgia. Texas in the Sweet 16? Georgetown as its #2?
F'ing brutal. Hell, even our 8/9 game could give them some trouble.
-The Midwest looks like a cakewalk. I see a bunch of mid-majors pulling off upsets, only to get hammered by Florida en route to the Final Four. However, I don't think the Gators could beat Kansas or UCLA.
-Bold prediction? Georgia Tech will make the Sweet 16.
F'ing brutal. Hell, even our 8/9 game could give them some trouble.
-The Midwest looks like a cakewalk. I see a bunch of mid-majors pulling off upsets, only to get hammered by Florida en route to the Final Four. However, I don't think the Gators could beat Kansas or UCLA.
-Bold prediction? Georgia Tech will make the Sweet 16.
Well, I maintain my opinion that that's a dangerous game for the Terps.
Definitely.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost to Davidson. I'm not going to pick that in my brackets, but it wouldn't surprise me.
Definitely.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost to Davidson. I'm not going to pick that in my brackets, but it wouldn't surprise me.
UNC's bracket is brutal. The only thing you could even vaguely construe as a break is that hey, Texas may be very good, but Barnes never met a lead he couldn't choke away. Besides that, brutal. I even think they may have significant trouble with Marquette/MSU, actually- when MSU doesn't turn the ball over they are very good.
Duke got a pretty good bracket. Duke fans would be very pleased to get to the sweet 16 this year, and we just might- Pitt is a pretty good fit for us- not very fast. Our pressure D, if we can find where we hid it before the Maryland game, should be able to keep the ball out of the hands of their best players- their post guys. (Of course, we might well lose to VCU, but if we do, that is our own damn fault and not the committee's.) Past that, well, anything past that is gravy. And a miracle.
Four other notes:
* Considering how bad State's season was, and that they only play 6 guys, and that they were playing their fourth game in four days, not even UNC finished on a particularly high note. They should have been able to dominate that game.
* Ty Lawson is a prick. Just had to say that. That State had to inbound afterwards was nice icing on that cake.
* Brandon Costner got hosed for MVP. Wright was very good, certainly the best player on Carolina, but without Wright Carolina still wins. Without Costner, State gets blown out in three games out of four. And Wright never scored more than 20 points in a game; Costner scored more than that three times.
* credit where credit is due- do you think VT and Clemson sat at home and cried watching Carolina's FT shooting Sunday? Carolina under Williams is deeply fundamentally sound in ways most of the conference only dreams of being.
Duke got a pretty good bracket. Duke fans would be very pleased to get to the sweet 16 this year, and we just might- Pitt is a pretty good fit for us- not very fast. Our pressure D, if we can find where we hid it before the Maryland game, should be able to keep the ball out of the hands of their best players- their post guys. (Of course, we might well lose to VCU, but if we do, that is our own damn fault and not the committee's.) Past that, well, anything past that is gravy. And a miracle.
Four other notes:
* Considering how bad State's season was, and that they only play 6 guys, and that they were playing their fourth game in four days, not even UNC finished on a particularly high note. They should have been able to dominate that game.
* Ty Lawson is a prick. Just had to say that. That State had to inbound afterwards was nice icing on that cake.
* Brandon Costner got hosed for MVP. Wright was very good, certainly the best player on Carolina, but without Wright Carolina still wins. Without Costner, State gets blown out in three games out of four. And Wright never scored more than 20 points in a game; Costner scored more than that three times.
* credit where credit is due- do you think VT and Clemson sat at home and cried watching Carolina's FT shooting Sunday? Carolina under Williams is deeply fundamentally sound in ways most of the conference only dreams of being.
Congrats again to Sidney for making the NIT with Herb’s McDonalds All American, but they were a tenth place team this year without Atsur and they might be next year too.
Duke as a 6 seed? Neat! I wonder if any other team has ever gotten a higher seed in the NCAAs than they got in their conference tourney. Maybe it's been done after making a big run, but not after losing in the first round to a lower seeded team.
Ted -- if you actually watch Southern Illinois play, you'll have no problem with them as a 4 seed. If they played in the ACC, they would have done well enough to have get the exact same seeding.
Virginia Tech should be very pleased they get to face Illinois in the first round. You always face a good opponent in a 5-12 game, but Illinois isn't anything special. Having a name opponent may actually help keep VA Tech from overlooking them. It should turn out like most of the ACC / Big Ten challenge games do.
Ted -- if you actually watch Southern Illinois play, you'll have no problem with them as a 4 seed. If they played in the ACC, they would have done well enough to have get the exact same seeding.
Virginia Tech should be very pleased they get to face Illinois in the first round. You always face a good opponent in a 5-12 game, but Illinois isn't anything special. Having a name opponent may actually help keep VA Tech from overlooking them. It should turn out like most of the ACC / Big Ten challenge games do.
| DMoore wrote: |
| Duke as a 6 seed? Neat! I wonder if any other team has ever gotten a higher seed in the NCAAs than they got in their conference tourney. Maybe it's been done after making a big run, but not after losing in the first round to a lower seeded team. |
UNC '95 was seeded third in the ACC and got a #2 seed in the tourney. They did make the conference tournament final though.
Note that that year was the one with the four 12-4 teams at the top, rather like this year--can you imagine if UNC had lost to Duke in the final game last week, gotten the #5 seed in the ACC (which I think was what would have happened), won the tournament, and possibly got a #1 tournament seed?
| DMoore wrote: |
| Duke as a 6 seed? Neat! I wonder if any other team has ever gotten a higher seed in the NCAAs than they got in their conference tourney. Maybe it's been done after making a big run, but not after losing in the first round to a lower seeded team.
|
Well, seeing as how the ACC (and other conferences) have had 2 number 1 seeds in past years, I guess the answer to your question is "yes". Are you as upset that the Terps were #5 in the ACC and got a #4 in the NCAA's? Or not?
In Duke's defense, they lost four games to UNC and Maryland. Anybody else in the ACC who made the NCAA tourney have to play those two four times? NC State did but I think that was it.
2007 College Basketball RPI by Conference--Courtesy of Pomeroy
The NCAA ranks conferences by average overall RPI.
Through games of Sunday, March 11
Average Avg Non-Conf Average Rankings of Members
Rnk Conference W-L Pct Overall RPI SOS (Rank) Non-Conf RPI Hi Lo Avg Median
1 Atlantic Coast Conference 132-33 .800 .5817 .5142 ( 8) .5741 ( 2) 3 157 55 43
2 Southeastern Conference 127-38 .770 .5814 .5291 ( 2) .5789 ( 1) 6 114 55 53
3 Pac 10 Conference 90-26 .776 .5699 .5143 ( 7) .5671 ( 3) 2 221 75 52
4 Big Ten Conference 116-38 .753 .5693 .5151 ( 6) .5620 ( 5) 1 199 76 44
5 Big East Conference 159-54 .746 .5589 .5033 (14) .5455 ( 7) 5 215 84 62
6 Missouri Valley Conference 79-32 .712 .5583 .5161 ( 5) .5659 ( 4) 7 139 80 92
7 Big XII Conference 119-40 .748 .5566 .4978 (16) .5491 ( 6) 11 237 85 74
8 Mountain West Conference 81-33 .711 .5512 .4904 (20) .5381 ( 8) 10 183 92 106
9 Western Athletic Conference 68-51 .571 .5235 .5070 (13) .5235 ( 9) 23 305 131 98
10 Atlantic 10 Conference 98-83 .541 .5145 .5120 (10) .5139 (11) 33 278 142 108
The NCAA ranks conferences by average overall RPI.
Through games of Sunday, March 11
Average Avg Non-Conf Average Rankings of Members
Rnk Conference W-L Pct Overall RPI SOS (Rank) Non-Conf RPI Hi Lo Avg Median
1 Atlantic Coast Conference 132-33 .800 .5817 .5142 ( 8) .5741 ( 2) 3 157 55 43
2 Southeastern Conference 127-38 .770 .5814 .5291 ( 2) .5789 ( 1) 6 114 55 53
3 Pac 10 Conference 90-26 .776 .5699 .5143 ( 7) .5671 ( 3) 2 221 75 52
4 Big Ten Conference 116-38 .753 .5693 .5151 ( 6) .5620 ( 5) 1 199 76 44
5 Big East Conference 159-54 .746 .5589 .5033 (14) .5455 ( 7) 5 215 84 62
6 Missouri Valley Conference 79-32 .712 .5583 .5161 ( 5) .5659 ( 4) 7 139 80 92
7 Big XII Conference 119-40 .748 .5566 .4978 (16) .5491 ( 6) 11 237 85 74
8 Mountain West Conference 81-33 .711 .5512 .4904 (20) .5381 ( 8) 10 183 92 106
9 Western Athletic Conference 68-51 .571 .5235 .5070 (13) .5235 ( 9) 23 305 131 98
10 Atlantic 10 Conference 98-83 .541 .5145 .5120 (10) .5139 (11) 33 278 142 108
I'm blaming UVA for Stanford and Purdue's inclusion in the tournament, Dave.
Though I, too, agree with the conventional wisdom that the East looks roughest, according to the RPI (yeah, I know) the West is the toughest.
The 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, and 12 are respectively the toughest in RPI. (No way I'm doing the legwork to find out about 13s and below...)
Of course, the 1 is the weakest of them all according to this measurement...
Really, the Big TelevEN should've had to forfeit a bid just having Minnesota (where I'm a grad student) in the league.
The 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, and 12 are respectively the toughest in RPI. (No way I'm doing the legwork to find out about 13s and below...)
Of course, the 1 is the weakest of them all according to this measurement...
Really, the Big TelevEN should've had to forfeit a bid just having Minnesota (where I'm a grad student) in the league.
| Fats Durston wrote: |
| I'm blaming UVA for Stanford and Purdue's inclusion in the tournament, Dave. |
We do what we can. I hear folks over the weekend pimping App State's chances too. Made me feel a bit better about that loss.
Man, I just hope the Cavs don't choke that first game. Win one and I'll be happy. Seriously. A second win would be nice, but that's just icing to me. One win validates your season.
| ab wrote: |
| Go Colonels! |
I had to look that one up. Somehow, I think EKU is going to need more than your support. You should be worried about your Wildcats. Cat fight!
Beating Indiana State by 8 and Evansville by 7 (at home, on presumptively senior day) doesn't impress me all that much. That was a nice 2 point home win over Northern Iowa however...
Texas had one impressive win all year, winning at home over Texas A&M in double overtime.
They had a few semi-impressive wins, over Texas Tech, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. They lost to many good teams though,(I remember back before computers when that wasn't counted as a positive, but just as a loss) losing to MSU, Tennessee, OK State, Villanova, Kansas State, Texas A&M and Kansas.
They are the lowest ranked team in defensive efficiency among the Pomeroy top 30 teams.
Posted by Dave at March 11, 2007 10:53 PM
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They had a few semi-impressive wins, over Texas Tech, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. They lost to many good teams though,(I remember back before computers when that wasn't counted as a positive, but just as a loss) losing to MSU, Tennessee, OK State, Villanova, Kansas State, Texas A&M and Kansas.
They are the lowest ranked team in defensive efficiency among the Pomeroy top 30 teams.
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