Dave Sez

Don't forget get to bring up stochastic variation and monte carlo analysis if he tries to give you any crud about the ACC underperforming....

I compared the NCAA Tourney results to an irregular Gaussian surface and the ACC's performance to a flux through said surface. I think that shut him up.

Seriously though, I'm not as down on the ACC's performance as some. I think it was actually worse last year and UNC still has the ability to make things even better.

Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind if the Heels lose to USC.

We still have 3 ACC teams in the NIT's final 8 and if you look at Pomeroy, several of these teams are rated as highly as teams still in the NCAA. Mississippi State and Poplar Bluff's own Ben Hansbrough are rated above Bradley and USC, which is UNC's next opponent. Florida State is rated one slot below Southern Illinois. Clemson, along with WVU and Air Force are rated above Vanderbilt and just behind Tennessee, so there is plenty of defense for the ACC's performance, even though most of this argument about conferences being better after two rounds involves people who don't understand basketball or statistics.

The NIT is back, due to two things: parity and the NCAA buying/being sued into owning the tournament, which means none of the good teams are refusing to play, and there is national television coverage of all games, if you count ESPNU.

For argument's sake, let's say that Memphis wins the NCAA and Syracuse wins the NIT and some promoter pitted the two. That could very well be a game that Syracuse would win. South Carolina won the NIT last year and might very well have been favored to beat Florida on a neutral court, since they had already beaten Florida twice last year.

I have a table put together that compares conference performance in both the NCAA and NIT and combined. I just didn't have time today to get a post up around it. I'll have to update it tomorrow with tonight's NIT games, including Clemson's win. The ACC is now 6-0 in the NIT.

Yeah, it's just the NIT, but if you are looking at whole conference performance, it's worth nothing.

I can't go with you on that Florida-USC thing. Yes, the Gamecocks beat the Gators twice last year, but both were upsets and the Gators improved a lot over the last few weeks of the season. They'd have killed SC on a neutral court.

They played on a neutral court in the SEC finals and Florida won 49-47. I seem to recall that South Carolina had a three point attempt near the end that could have won it.

It might have consisted of the same kind of mojo that VPI had over UNC this year, but South Carolina might very well have been favored to beat Florida had they played a fourth game, as USC had won its last 9 games out of ten at the end of the year. Certainly, the line would have been slim.