Dave Sez

There is precendent. Gene Bartow left UCLA for similar reasons and ended up at UAB.

I wonder what people in basketball in NY thought when Frank McGuire left St. John's for UNC?

The pressure at Kentucky is huge, especially with Pitino in the state. If I were going to rank the top states in terms of basketball craziness, it would be:

1)Kentucky
2)Indiana
3)Kansas
4)North Carolina

It's very similar to Sendek leaving for AZ State. Or Steve Alford leaving Iowa for New Mexico. Taking a lower caliber (but not embarrassingly so) job at comparable money, and resetting your "clock." Not a bad business move, really. Better than having to go to an SMU or Florida Atlantic after getting fired from UNC (like Doh).

But with Alford/Iowa, they were ready to fire him. No way was Kentucky ready to axe Tubby after this season.

Next season? Maybe.

(I still think North Carolina is the best state for basketball in the country, even if Indiana has history and Hooisers.

Yeah, Smith's move is very similar to Sendek's. Neither was going to be fired that year, but both were under constant pressure. Both did just well enough to make firing them difficult, but were probably never going to win over their fan bases.

I'm not so sure that you can compare the Alford to UNM move here. I was an undergraduate at UNM and New Mexico is actually a pretty basketball-crazed state -- even if they don't have the history of NC, IN, or KY. Remember, too, that the Lobos are the only game in town (with the exception of the Isotopes, né Dukes). The fact that the city (500,000) and state (1.5M) are small tends to make NM get overlooked, but they are rabid over college hoops (and playing softball at the Sportsplex -- four fields surrounding a bar plus draft beer and Jello shots in the dugout).

Matt wrote:

I'm not so sure that you can compare the Alford to UNM move here. I was an undergraduate at UNM and New Mexico is actually a pretty basketball-crazed state -- even if they don't have the history of NC, IN, or KY. Remember, too, that the Lobos are the only game in town (with the exception of the Isotopes, né Dukes). The fact that the city (500,000) and state (1.5M) are small tends to make NM get overlooked, but they are rabid over college hoops (and playing softball at the Sportsplex -- four fields surrounding a bar plus draft beer and Jello shots in the dugout).

But it's still not at the same level of money and attention that a Big Ten job is. Granted, it's nothing like stepping down from Kentucky to Minnesota.

Dude, I told you last year that Tubby would be ready to leave UK for UVa. This shows I wasn't that far off. :)

And it is perfectly reasonable, well, except maybe for the cold. If I were going to leave a high profile program for a cushy working retirement at a low-high major, I'd definitely follow in the Sendek/Knight/Alford footsteps- go someplace where you can picture yourself retiring. Minnesota is not that place for anyone, as far as I can tell.

And by the way, I'm a big (BIG) Leitao fan, but something bothers me a bit about Tubby going to UMN when he wouldn't come to UVA a couple of years ago....timing is everything, I suppose.

Matt wrote:

timing is everything, I suppose.

That's the key. Timing. Without knowing the guy, I'd guess he'd rather be somewhere a bit nicer than Minnesota. That's a tough place to be consistently successful.

While we're on the subject, Dave, what are your thoughts on Leitao? We've got two years of data now, so I feel justified in investigating this even if he's not coaching "his" players. Would we have been (theoretically) better off with Tubby? Given the way that Singletary, Reynolds, and Cain have come around, would Gillen have had the same success that Leitao did this year?

I've heard Petey G call a couple of games on the radio, and he's really good (but, I've always really liked Petey -- a class act all around). I listened to the UVA-UT game on the radio last Sunday and Gillen was calling it. It was awesome. His best line: "Those guys are eating steak and I'm eating hot dogs" -- when asked about some coaching decisions late in the game.

Leitao >> Gillen

Smith > Leitao

That's that way I see it right now. Leitao has time to change my opinion. Tubby impressed me at Tulsa and Georgia and early on at Kentucky. It just turns out that he's not quite a good enough recruiter and his style is a bit too vanilla to work at a program like that. He'd have been great at Virginia though.

Leitao has done well in two years, but he hasn't brought in any recruits of note yet. That's the only way to really succeed in the long run. You need to identify and land talent and then you need to help it improve. Coach Leitao certainly improved the play of Pete Gillen's players by teaching them defensive discipline and proper rebounding position, but that can only take you so far.

How good would these teams have been had Virginia not had their most talented point guard (or maybe second behind Cory Alexander) ever? Leitao's personality concerns me a bit. He's very high strung and very hard on the players. He needs to develop some other tools in his arsenal because players eventually start tuning that out. You've seen that at Maryland over the past several years.

Actually, there are two key aspects to recruiting:

1)Being able to land players

2)Being able to evaluate players

I am not sure that Tubby has been particularly impressive at either.

william wrote:

Actually, there are two key aspects to recruiting: 1)Being able to land players 2)Being able to evaluate players I am not sure that Tubby has been particularly impressive at either.

Certainly not to Kentucky standards. I think he's a good coach, but to meet UK expectations, you need more star players.

If he had trouble recruiting at a powerhouse like Kentucky, how hard will it be for him to bring players to Minnesota?

Here are some potential Kentucky candidates
Tom Crean (Marquette)
Mark Few (Gonzaga)
Tom Izzo (Michigan St)
Flip Saunders (Pistons)
Lon Kruger (UNLV)
Billy Gillespie (A&M)
Very Unlikely: Pitino or Travis Ford (UMASS)

Thoughts anyone?

Roy wrote:

If he had trouble recruiting at a powerhouse like Kentucky, how hard will it be for him to bring players to Minnesota? Here are some potential Kentucky candidates Tom Crean (Marquette) Mark Few (Gonzaga) Tom Izzo (Michigan St) Flip Saunders (Pistons) Lon Kruger (UNLV) Billy Gillespie (A&M) Very Unlikely: Pitino or Travis Ford (UMASS) Thoughts anyone?

No way on Kruger. He flopped at Illinois and that's just not going to cut it at UK. I don't think Saunders has ever coached in college, so he's out. Travis Ford is too green.

Pitino would be damn interesting, but I don't think even he's that cheesy. I think he'd be risking assassination if he left Louisville to return to Lexington.

Tom Izzo should be the #1 choice, but is he really available? He's got a great job and he's a Michigan (the state, not the school) guy. He seems pretty intrenched.

After that, I'd have to think Few and Gillespie are the next best two. Few is more proven, but Kentucky is a lot different than Gonzaga.

Crean has never impressed me like he has others, but maybe I'm missing something. Yeah, he won when he hit the lottery with Dwyane Wade. What does that prove? What's he done since?

They might want to consider Jay Wright too. I've heard a lot of folks mention Calipari. Calipari would be a huge success until he gets busted by the NCAA (and he would).

My buddy went to UMass and is worried that Travis Ford might leave. How about Dan Issel?

The latest word is that Gillispie is going to Arkansas now that Stan Heath has been forced out. Pitino has said he won't go to Kentucky.

I can't picture Kentucky taking a pro coach unless he had a long college history. They'll want someone who is thought of as a great recruiter after the Tubby era.

Thinking of that, Mike Montgomery is an (unlikely) option, although I doubt he'd come east.

I suspect we're about to see a replay of NC State's search. Lots of money being waved at lots of name coaches, but a STRONG preference by the coaches to take pay raises at their current schools rather than walk into the meat grinder.

Mark Few is the likely exception. He has to worry about the ability to maintain Gonzaga at its current level, and pay raise there can only take him so far toward Kentucky level money. Kentucky would also see him as a coach who has proven he can evaluate talent and recruit it.