March 26, 2007
Blue Monday
Tough loss for the Tar Heels yesterday. Brutal.
All year, I've maintained that I thought this squad was a year away. They were too young and too prone to lapses in concentration, intensity and/or judgment. Still, I hoped that they'd get it together enough or maybe just "talent" their way to the Final Four.
It almost happened. But then the inexperience and youth popped up. They thought they had it won. Kids are prone to impatience and that's exactly what the Heels were, impatient. Seven minutes left and up by ten. Why not just end the game now? They started jacking up unnecessary threes, trying to hit the knockout punch instead of pounding it inside like they'd done all game. Tyler Hansbrough, Brandan Wright, Deon Thompson and Alex Stephenson combined to score 56 of Carolina's 84 points, but for some reason, the guards thought they would be ones to finish things off. Keep in mind that when Carolina successfully battled back from a 16-point second-half deficit against Southern Cal in the previous round, they didn't attempt a single three. Not one.
Momentum is a funny thing in sports. It can turn at any moment for almost any reason. In tennis, you can be up a break and serving for the match. Lose a quick pair of points, and suddenly you are back even on serve and your opponent has first serve in a tie-breaker. A couple more points go the other way and now he is in charge. Two hours of domination can be reversed in two minutes. Same thing in basketball. The Heels just needed to be smart and the game and East Regional was won. Instead, they repeatedly took bad shots early in their possession. Each miss emboldened the Hoyas and they started stretching and strengthening their defense. On the other end of the court, the suddenly aggressive and confident Big East squad attacked the rim, scoring time and again. By the time the Heels realized what was going on, it was too late.
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I have a zillion other thoughts about that game and all of the others from the past four days, but I'm swamped at work. I'll just leave you for now with an updated table of postseason results by conference. The SEC has assumed the mantle of top NCAA tourney team, while the Big East can claim to be the best for the whole postseason at this point.
|
| NCAA | NIT | Total Postseason | ||||||||
| Conference | Bids | W-L | Win % | Impact | Bids | W-L | Win % | Bids | W-L | Win % | Impact |
| ACC | 7 | 7-7 | .500 | 3.50 | 3 | 7-2 | .778 | 10 | 14-9 | .560 | 6.09 |
| Big East | 6 | 7-5 | .583 | 3.50 | 4 | 7-3 | .700 | 10 | 14-8 | .636 | 6.36 |
| Big Ten | 6 | 8-5 | .615 | 3.69 | 1 | 1-1 | .500 | 7 | 9-6 | .600 | 4.20 |
| Big Twelve | 4 | 6-4 | .600 | 2.40 | 2 | 1-2 | .333 | 6 | 7-6 | .538 | 3.23 |
| Pac 10 | 6 | 10-5 | .667 | 4.00 | 0 | 0-0 | N/A | 6 | 10-5 | .667 | 4.00 |
| SEC | 5 | 9-4 | .692 | 3.46 | 4 | 5-3 | .625 | 9 | 14-7 | .667 | 6.00 |
[Update: I fixed a few stupid errors in the table. My bad.]
Comments
I am just looking at the 3-point statistics for Carolina the last 3 years and the differences between 2005 and 2007 are staggering. In 2005, Carolina hit over 40% of its three pointers. McCants and Felton both hit better than .420 from 3-point range. Jawad hit a respectable .381. Even Melvin Scott was better at three’s that year than Ty Lawson was this year and shot far more.
For the year, in 2005, Carolina was outscored by 21 points from 3-point range. This year, they were outscored by 117. Yesterday, Georgetown made 8-14! Not counting Ty Lawson’s meaningless one at the end, Carolina was 4-19. This team simply did not have good shooters. It is hard to win the NCAA tourney when you don’t have that. Every time, OSU, Florida, G-town and UCLA needed a 3, they made it. Carolina did not have that this year.
Georgetown was packed way back into a zone, and if Carolina had not made virtually every free throw, they would not have been ahead at all. Furthermore, in terms of points per possession analysis, Carolina had by far its worst defensive effort of the year. You can't win if you can't stop the other team. If this was a melt-down, then it was a defensive one and it started in minute one.
For the year, in 2005, Carolina was outscored by 21 points from 3-point range. This year, they were outscored by 117. Yesterday, Georgetown made 8-14! Not counting Ty Lawson’s meaningless one at the end, Carolina was 4-19. This team simply did not have good shooters. It is hard to win the NCAA tourney when you don’t have that. Every time, OSU, Florida, G-town and UCLA needed a 3, they made it. Carolina did not have that this year.
Georgetown was packed way back into a zone, and if Carolina had not made virtually every free throw, they would not have been ahead at all. Furthermore, in terms of points per possession analysis, Carolina had by far its worst defensive effort of the year. You can't win if you can't stop the other team. If this was a melt-down, then it was a defensive one and it started in minute one.
I have tried to tell other Tar Heel fans complaining about a “collapse” that if they want to see a real “collapse”, take a look at the 2005 team against Illinois. They blew a 15 point lead and then Felton came down and took a questionable 3-pointer, but it swished. Illinois then missed about five or six three’s at the end and Carolina held on to win and nobody talks about the worst collapse in Carolina history, because we won.
Today, we know how Illinois felt at the end of that game, even though they had made a bunch earlier, they couldn’t get one to go down at the end. We had several good looks but they wouldn’t go down.
In 1993, Donald Williams couldn’t buy a 3pointer in the ACC finals and Carolina lost and then he couldn’t miss in the tournament and Carolina won. The next 2 years, he reverted to form and was pretty average. There are so many good teams that it takes both skill and luck.
Indeed, the last 3 teams to make it to the Final Four with 1 loss or fewer, all lost. (1991 UNLV, 1999 Duke, 2005 Illinois).
Today, we know how Illinois felt at the end of that game, even though they had made a bunch earlier, they couldn’t get one to go down at the end. We had several good looks but they wouldn’t go down.
In 1993, Donald Williams couldn’t buy a 3pointer in the ACC finals and Carolina lost and then he couldn’t miss in the tournament and Carolina won. The next 2 years, he reverted to form and was pretty average. There are so many good teams that it takes both skill and luck.
Indeed, the last 3 teams to make it to the Final Four with 1 loss or fewer, all lost. (1991 UNLV, 1999 Duke, 2005 Illinois).
I was suprised to see Carolina scrambling back on defense instead of sticking with shots and crashing the boards for rebounds down the stretch. There must've been a reason but I couldn't figure it out. Otherwise, Dave summed up my thoughts well.
3-Point goals--Utah 5-17 (Jensen 1-1, Hansen 1-1, McTavish 1-2, Johnsen 1-2, Mottola 1-4, Doleac 0-1, Jackson 0-1, Caton 0-2, Miller 0-3), North Carolina 3-23 (Carter 1-4, Okulaja 1-5, Sha.Williams 1-9, Jamison 0-1, Cota 0-4)
UTAH 65, NORTH CAROLINA 59
UTAH (30-3)
Mottola 2-9 4-6 9, Jensen 3-4 0-0 7, Doleac 6-11 4-7 16, Miller 7-15 2-7 16, Hansen 1-1 2-2 5, Jackson 0-2 0-0 0, McTavish 1-2 0-0 3, Johnsen 3-7 0-0 7, Caton 1-3 0-0 2. Totals 24-54 12-22 65.
NORTH CAROLINA (34-4)
Okulaja 3-8 0-0 7, Jamison 7-19 0-2 14, Ndiaye 0-3 0-2 0, Cota 4-9 0-0 8, Carter 10-16 0-1 21, Sha.Williams 2-12 2-2 7, Haywood 1-2 0-0 2. Totals 27-69 2-7 59.
Halftime--Utah 35, North Carolina 22. 3-Point goals--Utah 5-17 (Jensen 1-1, Hansen 1-1, McTavish 1-2, Johnsen 1-2, Mottola 1-4, Doleac 0-1, Jackson 0-1, Caton 0-2, Miller 0-3), North Carolina 3-23 (Carter 1-4, Okulaja 1-5, Sha.Williams 1-9, Jamison 0-1, Cota 0-4). Fouled out--Ndiaye. Rebounds--Utah 39 (Miller 14), North Carolina 42 (Jamison 12). Assists--Utah 14 (Miller 7), North Carolina 14 (Cota 7). Total fouls--Utah 15, North Carolina 19. A--40,590.
UTAH 65, NORTH CAROLINA 59
UTAH (30-3)
Mottola 2-9 4-6 9, Jensen 3-4 0-0 7, Doleac 6-11 4-7 16, Miller 7-15 2-7 16, Hansen 1-1 2-2 5, Jackson 0-2 0-0 0, McTavish 1-2 0-0 3, Johnsen 3-7 0-0 7, Caton 1-3 0-0 2. Totals 24-54 12-22 65.
NORTH CAROLINA (34-4)
Okulaja 3-8 0-0 7, Jamison 7-19 0-2 14, Ndiaye 0-3 0-2 0, Cota 4-9 0-0 8, Carter 10-16 0-1 21, Sha.Williams 2-12 2-2 7, Haywood 1-2 0-0 2. Totals 27-69 2-7 59.
Halftime--Utah 35, North Carolina 22. 3-Point goals--Utah 5-17 (Jensen 1-1, Hansen 1-1, McTavish 1-2, Johnsen 1-2, Mottola 1-4, Doleac 0-1, Jackson 0-1, Caton 0-2, Miller 0-3), North Carolina 3-23 (Carter 1-4, Okulaja 1-5, Sha.Williams 1-9, Jamison 0-1, Cota 0-4). Fouled out--Ndiaye. Rebounds--Utah 39 (Miller 14), North Carolina 42 (Jamison 12). Assists--Utah 14 (Miller 7), North Carolina 14 (Cota 7). Total fouls--Utah 15, North Carolina 19. A--40,590.
Dean Smith was a choker too. Here is what Carolina did vs. Arizona in 1997 in the National Semifinal:
The Tar Heels shot just 31.1 percent (23-of-74) from the floor,
including a woeful 4-of-21 from three-point range. Shammond
Williams made his first shot, a three-pointer from the top of
the key, but missed his final 12 shots. The starting frontcourt
of Jamison, Zwikker and Ademola Okulaja shot a combined
12-of-37.
But in 1993, Dean Smith was not a choker, because Donald Williams hit 10-14 from three point range and Carolina beat Michigan.
The Tar Heels shot just 31.1 percent (23-of-74) from the floor,
including a woeful 4-of-21 from three-point range. Shammond
Williams made his first shot, a three-pointer from the top of
the key, but missed his final 12 shots. The starting frontcourt
of Jamison, Zwikker and Ademola Okulaja shot a combined
12-of-37.
But in 1993, Dean Smith was not a choker, because Donald Williams hit 10-14 from three point range and Carolina beat Michigan.
I'm not sure they are a year away. As you point out, they win because of their inside game. The players that might go pro are the inside players (Wright, and maybe Hansbrough). Terry graduates. Is it correct that they have Zero recruits signed for next year? They'll still have a big collection of talent, but if they lose Wright and Hansbrough you couldn't project them to win the conference.
| DMoore wrote: |
| I'm not sure they are a year away. As you point out, they win because of their inside game. The players that might go pro are the inside players (Wright, and maybe Hansbrough). Terry graduates. Is it correct that they have Zero recruits signed for next year? They'll still have a big collection of talent, but if they lose Wright and Hansbrough you couldn't project them to win the conference. |
Well, that's true. A more accurate way to say it is that the players are a year away. I think most of them will return, but if not, then the team doesn't really have a next year. Logically, Brandan Wright is the only one who has a good reason to leave.
If they lose only Wright, Terry and Miller, they could still be a formidable team next year. Deon Thompson looks like he could be really good. He just didn't get the playing time this year. With him and Hansbrough up front, Ellington and Lawson at the guards and someone from the group of Green, Frasor or Stephenson as the third starter, they'd still probably be a top 5 team.
I don't think that you guys remember how much the 2005 team improved from their sophomore year to their junior year. It is sort of silly to do static analysis when you are talking about 18 and 19 year olds. Deon Thompson could conceivably be a better college player than Brandan Wright. Felton was far better his junior year than he had been his first two years, both at ballhandling and at shooting. Lawson and Ellington need to work on shooting.
I re-watched yesterday’s game and also the second half of Illinois-UNC from 2005 and to tell you the truth, the “melt-down” against Illinois was worse. With the exception of the tap-in by Marvin Williams, Marvin must have been totally nervous because he made like 5 turnovers, missed a one and one and missed shots down the stretch. Melvin Scott took a bad shot, McCants threw the ball away and Carolina made several bad choices in terms of shot selection, and that team has many seniors and juniors. Thank goodness for UNC, Carolina pulled that one out or they would never have heard the end or it, but Illinois missed several uncontested three’s down the stretch.
Key play: Tie score, 65 all, with under five to play when Felton takes a 25 footer , heavily contested by 2 Illini and somehow it swishes. If he had missed, Illinois probably wins the game. If anything, Carolina went inside less in this game than in yesterday's game.
Yesterday, unlike what many critics are saying, Carolina did indeed go inside several times down the stretch. Hansbrough made one, missed one and got fouled the other time. Wright missed one that he usually makes and Ginyard had one blocked but made two free throws. Green missed an easy inside shot. There was also the strange call with a minute to play where Hansbrough went down trying to rebound and somehow got called for a foul with the Georgetown playing falling on top of him.
Lawson made several freshman mistakes. He was on the endline twice, threw the ball away once, fouled Wallace with him out of position and 4 seconds left on the shot clock and missed a questionable but fully open three.
I re-watched yesterday’s game and also the second half of Illinois-UNC from 2005 and to tell you the truth, the “melt-down” against Illinois was worse. With the exception of the tap-in by Marvin Williams, Marvin must have been totally nervous because he made like 5 turnovers, missed a one and one and missed shots down the stretch. Melvin Scott took a bad shot, McCants threw the ball away and Carolina made several bad choices in terms of shot selection, and that team has many seniors and juniors. Thank goodness for UNC, Carolina pulled that one out or they would never have heard the end or it, but Illinois missed several uncontested three’s down the stretch.
Key play: Tie score, 65 all, with under five to play when Felton takes a 25 footer , heavily contested by 2 Illini and somehow it swishes. If he had missed, Illinois probably wins the game. If anything, Carolina went inside less in this game than in yesterday's game.
Yesterday, unlike what many critics are saying, Carolina did indeed go inside several times down the stretch. Hansbrough made one, missed one and got fouled the other time. Wright missed one that he usually makes and Ginyard had one blocked but made two free throws. Green missed an easy inside shot. There was also the strange call with a minute to play where Hansbrough went down trying to rebound and somehow got called for a foul with the Georgetown playing falling on top of him.
Lawson made several freshman mistakes. He was on the endline twice, threw the ball away once, fouled Wallace with him out of position and 4 seconds left on the shot clock and missed a questionable but fully open three.
Dave, I think you need to QC your impact table. A couple quick things I noticed: (1) The PAC-10 is 10-5, not 9-6. (UCLA is still alive, so they can't have 6 losses). (2) For the SEC, 9-4 and 5-3 gives you 14-7, not 14-8.
| Joey wrote: |
| Dave, I think you need to QC your impact table. A couple quick things I noticed: (1) The PAC-10 is 10-5, not 9-6. (UCLA is still alive, so they can't have 6 losses). (2) For the SEC, 9-4 and 5-3 gives you 14-7, not 14-8. |
That's what I get for trying to rush through it! Thanks. I'll double-check it.
william's right. I can't believe how often people forget how much young teams improve. Just look at the last champions--Florida, coming off losing almost all of their scoring, UNC, coming off a couple of iffy seasons, UConn, I believe they lost 10 games or something the year before they won, Syracuse, not a great year before they won. You'd have to go back to Maryland in 2002 before you're looking at a champion being a team which was a Final Four-caliber team the year before.
My take is that if Wright goes (as he almost certainly will), next year's UNC team will be about the same, maybe slightly better, with the experience coming back.
Note that a fair number of Duke fans are the same way--look at the forums sometime and see how some people think they're not likely to even be ranked next year. Returning all but one player (probably) and bringing in three solid recruits and the team will be worse? That's crazy talk.
My take is that if Wright goes (as he almost certainly will), next year's UNC team will be about the same, maybe slightly better, with the experience coming back.
Note that a fair number of Duke fans are the same way--look at the forums sometime and see how some people think they're not likely to even be ranked next year. Returning all but one player (probably) and bringing in three solid recruits and the team will be worse? That's crazy talk.
You'd have to go back to Maryland in 2002 before you're looking at a champion being a team which was a Final Four-caliber team the year before.
Duke was FF caliber in 2000 as well; I still believe they would have beaten Florida in the elite eight if not for Dunleavy's mono. But you're right- especially with the caliber of new freshmen coming in, year-to-year improvement can be huge.
Returning all but one player (probably) and bringing in three solid recruits and the team will be worse? That's crazy talk.
I do think most of the sky-is-falling talk is crap, but we are losing our best rebounder, best post defender, best passer, and only interior scoring threat. Thinking that we'll be worse is not completely insane, especially since we showed very little improvement (arguably regression defensively) over the course of this year.
There are also persistent rumors Josh will not be the only player to leave Durham, though with transfers it is always unpredictable right up until they leave. I've also heard fairly strongly sourced rumors that over in Chapel Hill, Ty Lawson stopped attending class (at least for a while) and is likely gone.
Duke was FF caliber in 2000 as well; I still believe they would have beaten Florida in the elite eight if not for Dunleavy's mono. But you're right- especially with the caliber of new freshmen coming in, year-to-year improvement can be huge.
Returning all but one player (probably) and bringing in three solid recruits and the team will be worse? That's crazy talk.
I do think most of the sky-is-falling talk is crap, but we are losing our best rebounder, best post defender, best passer, and only interior scoring threat. Thinking that we'll be worse is not completely insane, especially since we showed very little improvement (arguably regression defensively) over the course of this year.
There are also persistent rumors Josh will not be the only player to leave Durham, though with transfers it is always unpredictable right up until they leave. I've also heard fairly strongly sourced rumors that over in Chapel Hill, Ty Lawson stopped attending class (at least for a while) and is likely gone.
| tieguy wrote: |
| Duke was FF caliber in 2000 as well; I still believe they would have beaten Florida in the elite eight if not for Dunleavy's mono |
Nitpick: That was Sweet 16. I think the Kentucky collapse in '98 is Coach K's only Elite Eight loss.
| tieguy wrote: |
| I do think most of the sky-is-falling talk is crap, but we are losing our best rebounder, best post defender, best passer, and only interior scoring threat. Thinking that we'll be worse is not completely insane, especially since we showed very little improvement (arguably regression defensively) over the course of this year.
There are also persistent rumors Josh will not be the only player to leave Durham, though with transfers it is always unpredictable right up until they leave. I've also heard fairly strongly sourced rumors that over in Chapel Hill, Ty Lawson stopped attending class (at least for a while) and is likely gone. |
Yeah, I was maybe a bit strong there. What I should have said is that saying the team most likely won't improve is, in my estimation, crazy. The possibility exists for the team to get worse, but I think it's pretty unlikely, barring major injury. I'd be pretty disappointed if Coach K couldn't do better than the same record.
I've also caught the transfer rumors, but most of what I've heard involves Pocius, who is probably not destined for huge minutes next year anyway. Don't know if you've heard differently though.
Not differently, but more. I'm not sure how much credibility the non-Pocious rumors have, though.
And of course you're right on the elite eight/sweet sixteen; I guess I'm in denial about K's recent and mysterious lack of success in the round of 16. (Florida in '00, IU in '02, MSU in '05, LSU in '06.)
And of course you're right on the elite eight/sweet sixteen; I guess I'm in denial about K's recent and mysterious lack of success in the round of 16. (Florida in '00, IU in '02, MSU in '05, LSU in '06.)
I wouldn't be surprised if Pocius transfers. I really don't understand why he didn't get more minutes. This year and last.
That's been one of K's biggest recent failings. He seems to no longer be willing to bring guys along who aren't ready. If he'd just play these talented but raw guys a few more minutes each game, he'd likely turn a few of them into very useful players. But he doesn't. And then they transfer.
BTW, I think you're crazy if you don't think a Duke team full of sophomores and juniors with one senior and three talented freshman won't be better than this year's version. I think a lot of folks are grossly overstating McRobert's interior defense and passing. Yeah, he blocked a lot of shots, but otherwise I was never terribly impressed with his D. I agree that he was a great passer for his position, but do really need/want your tallest player handling the ball and trying to make plays? That's just not a great way to run the offense.
And I agree with whoever said that Thompson might end up being a better college player than Brandan Wright. And I don't just mean that because Wright will only play one year. Thompson just looks like a guy who's going to keep getting better and better. And not just that, he knows who is and what he can do. Wright is going to try to become a shooting guard (just watch), while Thompson is going to try to become an All-American PF/C.
That's been one of K's biggest recent failings. He seems to no longer be willing to bring guys along who aren't ready. If he'd just play these talented but raw guys a few more minutes each game, he'd likely turn a few of them into very useful players. But he doesn't. And then they transfer.
BTW, I think you're crazy if you don't think a Duke team full of sophomores and juniors with one senior and three talented freshman won't be better than this year's version. I think a lot of folks are grossly overstating McRobert's interior defense and passing. Yeah, he blocked a lot of shots, but otherwise I was never terribly impressed with his D. I agree that he was a great passer for his position, but do really need/want your tallest player handling the ball and trying to make plays? That's just not a great way to run the offense.
And I agree with whoever said that Thompson might end up being a better college player than Brandan Wright. And I don't just mean that because Wright will only play one year. Thompson just looks like a guy who's going to keep getting better and better. And not just that, he knows who is and what he can do. Wright is going to try to become a shooting guard (just watch), while Thompson is going to try to become an All-American PF/C.
Honestly, the Heels were not that much more successful with Lawson at the Helm than they were with Frasor and Thomas. Some of that I say after watching him yesterday, when he was admittedly horrible, so maybe it is unfair a little.
Nevertheless, if Lawson couldn't get any shots off down the stretch against Georgetown, and if he can barely shoot 33% from the college three point line and not even 70% from the stripe as a point guard and if he is still just a so-so defender against college boys, I feel very sad if he honestly thinks that he can be anything more than a part-time player in the NBA.
Ty, there are guys in the NBA who shoot 45% from their long three point line with 2 guys draped all over them. Ty, there are 50 guys in the NBA better than Hibbert, who scared you to death every time you went down the lane. Ty, please give Joe Forte a phone call before you make any decisions. He was far better than you were in college and I am not sure even what he is doing now.
Nevertheless, if Lawson couldn't get any shots off down the stretch against Georgetown, and if he can barely shoot 33% from the college three point line and not even 70% from the stripe as a point guard and if he is still just a so-so defender against college boys, I feel very sad if he honestly thinks that he can be anything more than a part-time player in the NBA.
Ty, there are guys in the NBA who shoot 45% from their long three point line with 2 guys draped all over them. Ty, there are 50 guys in the NBA better than Hibbert, who scared you to death every time you went down the lane. Ty, please give Joe Forte a phone call before you make any decisions. He was far better than you were in college and I am not sure even what he is doing now.
I don't think Ty is going to declare or Mike Conely for that matter.
http://www.nbadraft.net/2007positional.asp
http://www.nbadraft.net/2007positional.asp
| william wrote: |
| Honestly, the Heels were not that much more successful with Lawson at the Helm than they were with Frasor and Thomas. Some of that I say after watching him yesterday, when he was admittedly horrible, so maybe it is unfair a little. |
Frasor I'll buy, but Thomas? He looks totally out of sorts whenever I watch them.
I doubt Lawson leaves (although the rumors are flying) unless Hansbrough leaves (which I don't think he will), in which case he may not want to risk a down year in Chapel Hill. I still think it's unlikely.
| vick wrote: | ||
Frasor I'll buy, but Thomas? He looks totally out of sorts whenever I watch them. I doubt Lawson leaves (although the rumors are flying) unless Hansbrough leaves (which I don't think he will), in which case he may not want to risk a down year in Chapel Hill. I still think it's unlikely. |
If Thomas were Carolina's starting point guard (meaning, he was the best option), the Heels would have lost at least 5 more games this year. He would easily be the worst starting PG in the ACC.
Frasor started last year. Did any of you see Carolina beat Duke in Durham in 2006? K specifically said that he thought that Q. Thomas was sensational in that game. Q. Thomas also had a higher assist to turnover ratio than Frasor last year and higher than Felton had the year before. I would definitely take him over Ismael Smith.
| william wrote: |
| Frasor started last year. Did any of you see Carolina beat Duke in Durham in 2006? K specifically said that he thought that Q. Thomas was sensational in that game. Q. Thomas also had a higher assist to turnover ratio than Frasor last year and higher than Felton had the year before. I would definitely take him over Ismael Smith. |
william, you had to bring up that game? I was, in fact, standing on the floor, in the very front row...
And I don't think Thomas is awful or anything, but the point guard of a top-10 team? Nah, I don't think he's got that sort of ability. Losing Lawson would hurt, although it wouldn't destroy the team, I think it would pretty much kill Final Four aspirations. I've been wrong before about how quickly Roy can get improvement from former bench players.
He would be more of an Ed Cota type, but that worked because Carolina had Carter, who could hit three's and create his own offense off the dribble and Shammond Williams who was an excellent outside shooter except against Utah. Obviously, if you have a King Rice or Ed Cota type guard, you need shooting elsewhere. King had Hubert and right now Ty has no one.
Georgetown is not stupid. They studied Carolina's stats and they knew that if Carolina was cold from outside that they could win the game. It was the same thing that happened versus VPI twice and NC State.
Georgetown is not stupid. They studied Carolina's stats and they knew that if Carolina was cold from outside that they could win the game. It was the same thing that happened versus VPI twice and NC State.
| william wrote: |
| Frasor started last year. Did any of you see Carolina beat Duke in Durham in 2006? K specifically said that he thought that Q. Thomas was sensational in that game. Q. Thomas also had a higher assist to turnover ratio than Frasor last year and higher than Felton had the year before. I would definitely take him over Ismael Smith. |
That was the best game Q ever played. By far. He's never had a game nearly as good as Ishmael Smith's 15 assist performance against G Tech in the ACC tourney.
One way that I may differ, Dave, is that I would not recruit, ever, nor play, ever, a starting point guard who shoots 46% from the free throw line. There is simply no point in that. It's one thing having QT off the bench, but how can Wake ever win big games down the stretch with him holding the ball every time down the court? They can't.
I can't believe you'd ever compare QT to Ish but you've got your pick and I wouldn't trade Ish for the world. And while casting aspersions on Ish, and Wake's for that matter, performance against VT in the ACC Tournament I think it's understandable coming off double OT the day before against GT. I'd maintained going into the ACC Tournament that GT was the wild card because they either beat you or wear you out with their deep bench. Witness Wake's win over Virginia late in the season. The foul shooting at Wake is a huge problem but it's not a problem unique to Ish. This absolutely drives me nuts.
I just haven't drank the KoolAid on Brandon Wright. He's a great athlete and has the vogue intangibles (long, athletic, upside, etc) but without an opportunity to play weakside to Hansbrough he'd never stand out with his own lowpost talent or stats. Atleast not yet maybe it's coming.
I just haven't drank the KoolAid on Brandon Wright. He's a great athlete and has the vogue intangibles (long, athletic, upside, etc) but without an opportunity to play weakside to Hansbrough he'd never stand out with his own lowpost talent or stats. Atleast not yet maybe it's coming.
From what I've heard Hansbrough said he is 95% certain he is going to stay and Lawson has already said he is coming back. I expect to lose Wright(he should go) and that's it. (Source: Bill Cole of the Winstom-Salem Journal)
Losing Wright, Terry, and Miller would not break the team at all.
We don't have a 2007 recruit, but we do have a top-100 player (William Graves) who will be a rsFreshman.
Green, Ginyard, and Frasor will be back as role players. (Hopefully Frasor will improve his 3 point shooting)
Stephenson, Lawson, and especially Ellington and Thompson will only improve with experience.
I think this makes the 2008 team better than the 2007 team, but anything can happen between then to throw things off.
About this year: I was NOT disappointed that we made it all the way to the Elite 8 starting 3 freshman and 2 sophomores in the regional final. Really, think about how young this team was outside of Terry!
Yes, the way we lost was extremely hard to swallow, but I can't blame Roy or the players for anything. G'Town played calmer down the stretch and hit their shots at an amazing rate, so congratulations to them.
Losing Wright, Terry, and Miller would not break the team at all.
We don't have a 2007 recruit, but we do have a top-100 player (William Graves) who will be a rsFreshman.
Green, Ginyard, and Frasor will be back as role players. (Hopefully Frasor will improve his 3 point shooting)
Stephenson, Lawson, and especially Ellington and Thompson will only improve with experience.
I think this makes the 2008 team better than the 2007 team, but anything can happen between then to throw things off.
About this year: I was NOT disappointed that we made it all the way to the Elite 8 starting 3 freshman and 2 sophomores in the regional final. Really, think about how young this team was outside of Terry!
Yes, the way we lost was extremely hard to swallow, but I can't blame Roy or the players for anything. G'Town played calmer down the stretch and hit their shots at an amazing rate, so congratulations to them.
Ish was terrible in so many games that it is difficult to name them all and I have watched plenty of freshmen point guards. Wake has him, so enjoy him. We will stick with Ray Felton, Ty Lawson, Phil Ford, those types. Good luck next year because you are going to need it.
It was a fantastic year and no one on Carolina has anything to apologize for or to be upset about.
| william wrote: |
| It was a fantastic year and no one on Carolina has anything to apologize for or to be upset about. |
No question. I don't think anyone reasonable is saying that Carolina had a disappointing year. They just ended with a disappointing game. That's the thing about college basketball. Pretty much everyone's season ends with a disappointing game.
When I saw them in that Gonzaga game, it is hard to be disappointed at all, particularly when we knew all along that they couldn't shoot.
The only real disappointment was the defense which as good on average but highly variable and terrible on Sunday. What frustrates me is all the people who don't even bother to look at the game or the box or the gameplan breakout spouting inanities about how bad offense lost the game. Oh well, opinions are like a certain body part....
The only real disappointment was the defense which as good on average but highly variable and terrible on Sunday. What frustrates me is all the people who don't even bother to look at the game or the box or the gameplan breakout spouting inanities about how bad offense lost the game. Oh well, opinions are like a certain body part....
Oh, William -- if only we could all be as smart and wise and wonderful as you. The world would be a much better place.
It has less to do with intelligence and more to do with actually trying to analyze what happened. Most of the people carping admit that they have not checked the play by play given with the box score or re-watched the game. I have and many of the comments are simply incorrect in terms of what happened.
Don't forget the Big East is 4 -1 against the ACC in tourney play as of April 3
Posted by Dave at March 26, 2007 12:05 PM
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