Dave Sez

DeMarcus Nelson Hurt

Duke freshman DeMarcus Nelson will be out for 2-4 weeks with a ruptured thumb ligament in his right hand.

The one position where Duke is questionable is the point guard sport, where Nelson was believed to be the backup to Sean Dockery. The hardest position to learn as a freshman is the point, and Nelson is really more of a combo guard, so the loss of practice time could be significant. Duke will probably have to use Daniel Ewing at the point quite a bit, which will limit his scoring opportunities.

White Men Can Dunk

Check out this video from a Canadian dunk contest. Good lord. Dunk contests have gotten pretty stale for me, but that was one impressive display. The last dunk in particular is just sick.

I did some poking around and found out the kid's name. He's Henry Bekkering and he's a redshirt freshman at Eastern Washington.

ACC To ECU? No

New East Carolina AD Terry Holland seems like a really good guy and of course he has great ties to the ACC. One of the things he wants to do as ECU AD is bring ACC basketball teams into Greenville.

Uh no, that's not gonna happen, Terry. I think he realizes this, but he's gonna try anyway. He mentions that it'll probably take some incentives, but what could ECU possibly offer? They don't have the money to bribe an ACC team. Barbecue, maybe?

I admire his optimism, but it'll be a long time before any team travels to Greenville unless Virginia does it as a favor to their former coach and AD.

Showing Baddour The Door?

I didn't link to any stories earlier in the week, but in case you missed it, there were rumors circulating that UNC was going to reassign athletics director Dick Baddour to another job. Of course, "reassign" is friendly-talk for "fire." Almost as quickly as the rumor got out, UNC put out a statement (sorry, you need to register) saying it wasn't true.

As with any rumor of this sort, there probably is some truth to it. Caulton Tudor put up a pretty good editorial talking about why they might want to get rid of him.

Actually, the case can be made pretty simply. Baddour has screwed up both the basketball and football programs.

In basketball, he failed to land Roy Williams when Bill Guthridge resigned and then turned it over to the green Matt Doherty. You remember how that turned out. Yeah, he got Roy Williams the second time, but honestly, that was an easy hire.

In football, Baddour hired (and then fired, didn't really fire and then fired again) Carl Torbush after Mack Brown left. Torbush promptly drove the program into a tree. To replace Torbush, Baddour went with unproven pro coach John Bunting who has managed to make things even worse.

So, here Carolina is. They need a new football coach, but the man who is responsible for hiring one has proven that he's not up to the task. So, the proper thing to do is to get a new AD. The new AD's first task will be to find a good football coach. Despite Carolina's claim that the rumors aren't true, I don't see things going any other way.

Bottom Line

The News & Observer has a pretty interesting article up about NC State defensive coordinator Reggie Herring. He sounds a bit like a cartoon character - a stereotype of an overly macho football coach.

ACC Preview - Week 9

This is a pretty good week in the ACC. There are no "big" games as far as national perception like there were the previous two weeks, but in three of the five conference games, you have teams at compatible levels trying to get a leg up on one another.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech - This is a nice matchup for a Thursday night game. You have two of the teams fighting in that middle ground of the ACC and both have played fairly well in recent weeks. Unfortunately, both teams have had more success on the defensive side of the ball, so while it should be pretty fiercely contested, it will probably be low scoring and might even be ugly.

Both of the Techs have only two losses so far this season, one against a top five team and one loss that they'd like to have back. For the Yellow Jackets, they had their shocking spanking at the hands of the Tar Heels while the Hokies dropped a heartbreaker to NC State when they missed a last second field goal. If either team had reversed their fortunes in those latter games, they'd be one loss teams and would be ranked (well, the Hokies are ranked this week anyway, but they'd probably be in the top 15).

Like I said before, I expect that this game will be fairly close and low scoring (of course, I thought the same thing about the NC State-Miami game last week). Virginia Tech is the slightly better team though and they've had two weeks to prepare (three, if you include the week when they played Florida A&M). Frank Beamer is a good coach and he'll have a good gameplan to lead his team to the win.

By the same token, Georgia Tech has had two good games in a row, holding both opponents (Maryland and Duke) to under 200 yards. Still, the Hokies are too good on both sides of the ball, with better stats than the Yellow Jackets in every major offensive and defensive category. Also, there's always the threat of a big Beamer Ball play in the special teams. I pick the Hokies by a touchdown.

NC State at Clemson - This is the second game of the weekend between teams in the middle trying to climb their way to the top of the pack (no pun intended). Actually, I'm being a bit kind to Clemson, who's hanging on to that middle bubble by just a few fingernails. A loss to Maryland last weekend would have cemented them into a group at or near the bottom with Wake Forest.

With a win in this game, Clemson would climb to 3-3 in the conference, and with a game against Duke still on the schedule, a near lock for a .500 record. A loss would end any chance of that.

For NC State, they are sitting at 3-2 in the conference and still have games with Georgia Tech and Florida State. A loss would most likely put them at .500 as well. A win and they are in pretty good shape.

As for who actually will win, I'm going to have to lean toward State. While they've had some spectacular losses in the Carolina and Miami games, they really do have a pretty good team. One silver lining from the Miami game is that their offense, Jay Davis in particular, really found itself. If he becomes a consistent threat at the quarterback position, they could be a very good team. Well, as long as TA McClendon stops fumbling.

For Clemson, they are certainly good enough to win this game and slugging out a win in that tough Maryland game probably helped their psyche. You have to think that it's important for them to start well. If they get behind early, the doubts will probably creep in and their home crowd might get hostile.

All in all, I just don't trust this Clemson team enough. They've underachieved for most of the year, and despite last week's win, I wonder if they aren't one or two bad breaks away from crumbling altogether. We'll see. Like the Two Techs game, I think this one will be close, but there will probably be a few more points. I think State wins by about a touchdown, maybe in overtime.

Duke at Wake Forest - The battle for the cellar! This is sort of a yearly game, isn't it? Duke and Wake for the bottom of the conference? The motto of the game could be "Good Seats Available!"

This year, like most recent ones, Wake is a much better team. While Duke isn't horrible, I have a feeling that they are going to get pounded by an angry group of Demon Deacons. Wake will take out the frustrations of their 0-4 conference record on the hapless Blue Devils like Ralphie wailing on his bully tormentor in A Christmas Story. No last-minute loss this week.

Florida State at Maryland - Hmmm, a few weeks ago, I would have said that this one smells a bit like an upset. Unfortunately now, it's hard to pick up that scent over the stench of rotting turtle. The Terrapins have imploded and if they can't move the ball on Georgia Tech, NC State and Maryland, how are they going to score on Florida State?

At the same time, who would have thought that the Seminoles would keep Wake in the game for so long last week? I certainly didn't see it coming. I have a feeling that it was a rough week of practice in the Tally. Look for a bit more fire in the garnet and gold bellies this week.

So, everything points toward a Seminole blowout, right? I think so, but that's what worries me. This is exactly the kind of game that produces one of those upsets that no one saw coming, isn't it? Well, I don't have the guts to pick that, so I'm going with Florida State by two touchdowns and a safety.

Miami at North Carolina - When your team has one of the worst defenses in the country for the second straight season, is missing its leading tackler and gave up nearly 700 yards in its last game, maybe you shouldn't go talking smack about your next opponent, you know the one that put up 45 last week on the #1 defense in the country. Jeez.

Just for that Tar Heel stupidity, I won't make my usual comment about how this is actually a talented team that plays poorly and how they have the potential to beat anyone. Screw that. This team is a mess and their gonna get killed by the Hurricanes. I expect a Miami win by four or more touchdowns.

Duke Gets Lithuanian

It seems like every team in the ACC has had at least one Eastern European player. Every team except Duke that is. Looks like that's gonna change next year as Duke just got a commitment from little-known recruit Martynas Pocius. Although he isn't well-known, you can bet that he's pretty good and Duke feels like they stole one.

In that same article, there is news of a press conference tonight where top recruit Andrew Bynum will announce his school. North Carolina is on his final list, but the word is out that he's picking UConn.

Also, the article mentions that Florida State just landed top forty big man Casaan Breeden, a nice get for Leonard Hamilton.

Spiderman

It's pretty obvious that I like sports. It's also pretty obvious that I waste too much time thinking and writing about sports. Still, I like to think that I maintain a pretty good balance in my life. I don't live or die based on the performances of athletes on TV and the games don't completely control my calendar.

People who get too worked up in following a particular team scare me a bit. Not only are they pathetic, but they can ruin it for the rest of us. This guy, a University of Richmond Spiders fan, is one of those people. He has problems.

Thanks to Yoni for the link.

Tony K On Les Boulez

When Tony Kornheiser is on his game, he's as good and funny a sportswriter as there is. In today's article, he's on. Give it a read.

Side note: Did you see that "fight" between the Wizards and Bulls? What a joke. It started when Larry Hughes commited a horrible cheap shot by pushing Kirk Hinrich into Loul Deng while Deng was in the air for a layup. A terrible foul, as it was cowardly and really could have hurt Deng. The incident escalated when Brendan Haywood decided to sissy-punch Antonio Davis while Davis was looking the other way. Haywood then proceeded to run backwards away from Davis faster than I've ever seen Haywood move. Davis eventually caught him and pounded the bigger Haywood to the floor. Served him right. If only the big fella had landed on Larry Hughes, then all would have been equalized.

Blue Ribbon Wake Preview

Like I said in an earlier posting, there are dozens if not hundreds of team preview articles floating around on the web. I'm not going to be linking to too many of them, because there's just no point. If you're interested at all, you will have already found a few to your liking.

That said, this one is pretty good. ESPN.com is offering up a free preview of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearkbook, and one of the teams they are offering for free is Wake Forest. It's a quite long and very thorough preview. It's a good read.

I have one nitpick here though. This Chris Paul stuff has gotten out of hand. Yes, he's a very good player and he had a great freshman year. You may remember (OK, probabyl not), that I actually picked him for first team All ACC last year. So, I recognize that he's a great player.

But ... this Blue Ribbon preview mentions several times that Paul is their choice for national player of the year! Wow. I mean, yeah, that could happen, but it's pretty unlikely. His own teammate, Justin Gray was picked ahead of him for the official All ACC team last year. In the ACC alone, he'll have to compete with Jarrett Jack, John Gilcrist and Raymond Felton just to be the best point guard in the conference.

So, yes, Chris Paul is a very good player, maybe even special. Last year, it seemed that lots of people failed to recognize just how good he was. But things changed over the summer and now the hype has now officially gotten ahead of his production. Let's give the kid a chance to earn his spot, OK?

ACC Review - Week 8

Maryland at Clemson - I often completely miss the boat when predicting what will happen in these games. I'm not ashamed about it; it's practically impossible to accurately say what will happen in a college football game. In this game though, "The Desperation Bowl" I called it, I got it right with this prediction, "[Clemson will] continue their winning streak in a fierce, close and ugly match." Actually, maybe I should have said very ugly. Or "fugly," perhaps. I mean, good god. Maryland managed less than 200 yards of offense and Clemson was just barely better. There were only two turnovers, so that means that the two teams just kept bumping into each other for a few downs and punting. There were 16 punts in all. Death Valley? It must have been Bored-To-Death Valley on Saturday. I tried watching some of this one and ended up leaving a drool spot on my sofa.

Ironically, for as gawdawful a game as it was, it did have an exciting ending. Clemson scored the game winning touchdown with less than a minute and a half to go. Thankfully for everyone involved this one didn't go to overtime. Otherwise we might have had something like a 13-10 victory in five overtimes.

So where does this leave the teams? I called it the Desperation Bowl for a reason. The winner still has a chance at redemption or at least mediocrity while the loser ... well, hey, basketball practice started!

For Clemson, they actually still have a hill to climb. They are sitting at 3-4 and 2-3 in the ACC with games remaining against NC State, Miami, Duke and USC. They'll be favored in one of those games. Odds are they'll still end the season under .500 overall and at best at .500 in the conference. I wonder if the IPTAY folks have lawyers combing that extended contract for Tommy Bowden looking for loopholes?

For Maryland, it's not much better. They are now 3-4 with three straight losses. They failed to gain 200 yards in any of those three losses, although I guess they did double their output in this game. With games left against Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, it's extremely unlikely that they'll scratch their way back to .500. I'd say they have a better chance of losing out. More likely, they'll get one win the rest of the way.

Virginia at Duke - I really thought Virginia would come out in this one angry and blow Duke away. If you just look at the final score and some of the stats, including the eye-popping 348 rushing yards, you would think that that's what happened. Nuh uh. Not at all. Virginia was a bit sluggish and failed to put Duke away until late.

Duke had the ball in scoring range down just two touchdowns in the middle of the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers held them on a fourth down though and drove the field for one more clinching score to make the final margin appear a bit better.

On the flip side, while the Cavs weren't as sharp as they hoped, in large part due to a poor game from quarterback Marques Hagans, they had to be pleased with their rushing. Alvin Pearman, normally the #2 RB, rushed for 223 yards, just one shy of the school single game record. Wali Lundy added 82 more and two touchdowns. The Cavaliers realized early on that Hagans wasn't sharp (evidently he was still banged up from the beating he took in Tallahassee), so they committed almost completely to the rushing game. It worked.

For Duke, well, it was yet another moral victory. They played pretty well, but still lost by three touchdowns. Interestingly, over the past four years, the Blue Devils lead the nation in moral victories that were actual losses.

Side note: I listened to some of this game on the radio via the Duke broadcasters. Man, talk about your homers. Every single flag thrown against Duke was a bad call. Every third play or so where there wasn't a flag thrown, the refs missed an obvious penalty on Virginia. On top of that, Bob Harris, their play-by-play man routinely failed to mention the yards gained, whether first downs were made or whether actual penalties had been called. In fairness, he's a very good basketball guy, and frankly that's all Duke really cares about anyway.

Florida State at Wake Forest - Wow. I watched this game and could not believe my eyes. I'm not just talking about the fact that Wake was leading almost the whole game, but what really shocked me was Florida State. Was this the same team that I saw kill Virginia one week earlier? There was no resemblance at all. None. Where they were jumping up and down and constantly attacking one week, they were standing and yawning the next. I can't remember such a jarring contrast in a team's attitude from one week to the next.

As for the game, it was almost the biggest upset in Wake Forest history, but they just couldn't quite hold on. In fairness, they really never did much to earn the win. Both of their two touchdowns were defensive scores. It's not that those don't count or that they weren't great plays, but there was a lot of luck involved. Without those two scores, Wake probably never would have led. It still would have been fairly close and it would have been low-scoring, but the Demon Deacons wouldn't have been in position to win.

For the Seminoles, it's hard to know what to take from this game. A few things are certain - this is not a team you can count on to always bring their best (or even near their best) and Wyatt Sexton is not infallible. On the flip side, they gave up only three points to Wake Forest's offense and they came through and made the plays they needed to down the stretch. Good teams find ways to win games even when they are playing poorly. I just wonder if this team isn't playing poorly too often. Fortunately for them, they really only have two semi-tough games left, at NC State and home against the coachless Florida Gators. Both games are losable, but with any semblance of the effort they gave against Virginia, they'll win both.

For Wake Forest, it was yet another heartbreaking loss. Wake has to be the best 0-4 team in ACC history, for whatever that's worth. All four losses came in the closing minutes or seconds of the game. Fortunately for the Deacs, they get Duke next. They should be able to wrap that one up before the last minute.

Miami at NC State - This was a crazy game. In the kicking game alone, there was a kickoff return for a touchdown, an onsides kick, a fake punt, a muffed kickoff return, a muffed punt return, a blocked punt and a partially blocked punt. Add in five turnovers, over 860 yards of offense and 76 points and you can see why it was such an unusual game.

A big surprise for everyone was how much offense there was in this one. Going into the game, NC State was #1 in the country in total defense and Miami wasn't too far behind. Imagine my surprise when I watched Miami roll up over 200 yards and NC State just under 300 in the first half alone.

At the half, Miami led 28-17, but it felt like State was still in the game. They had made a bunch of big plays, but had killed themselves with critical turnovers, including a fumble by TA McClendon inside the five yard line (haven't we seen that before?). In the second half though, things settled down and Miami seized complete control. At one point, Miami led 45-17, but the Wolfpack scored the last two touchdowns to make the score a bit more respectable.

For NC State, there are two ways to look at this. On the one hand, they came out hard, with a lot of passion and they threw the kitchen sink at the Hurricanes. There is no doubt that Chuck Amato was going for the win. That's a great attitude and it's clear that his team bought into it. On the flip side, all that trickery can give the impression that you feel you need that stuff to win. So when it doesn't produce a lead, you wonder if the team doesn't let down a bit, feeling like they already took their shots. In the end, I'd say that NC State showed that they are a good team and that they do have a lot of talent, but they just aren't yet in Miami's class. That's not so bad.

For Miami, there are also two ways to look at it. On one hand, they took yet another good team's best shot and came away victorious. On the other hand, they gave up a ton of yards, big plays and points to a non-ranked team. Their defense looks great out there flying around, but they aren't shutting teams down. At some point, that sloppiness might catch up to them.

Regardless of what the two teams do the rest of the year, they did give us an exciting game and laid the groundwork for a possible rivalry. It's clear that State has targeted both Florida State and Miami as schools they really, really want to beat and they do a great job of getting up for those games. Coach Amato and his staff just need to find a way to channel that energy and passion for the other nine games on the schedule.

Graduation Rates Released

The NCAA released its latest graduation rates, with numbers from the class that entered in 1997-98. I really don't put too much weight in these numbers, because they are so flawed. Transfers and players who turn pro early count against schools, which really isn't fair. For this reason, basketball numbers in particular are flawed, because it only takes a couple of transfers or early departures to torpedo rates.

The News & Observer runs down the numbers for the local ACC schools here.

One thing I do want to point out is State's embarrasingly low numbers. Now, I understand that they went through a football coaching change around that time, so they had higher than normal transfers. Still, that doesn't completely make up the difference. Even if every transferee stayed and graduated, they would be at best tied with UNC and still behind Duke and Wake.

Even more disturbing was this quote from Chuck Amato, "They were all guys I did not recruit. This is my fifth year. How else can I address it? That's the truth." Nice, coach. Yeah, you have no obligation whatsoever to make sure they go to class and get an education just because you didn't recruit them. Is he saying that he recruits smarter players than Mike O'Cain did?

Anyway, like I said, the numbers are flawed, so don't give them too much credence. At the same time, I am very concerned about whether or not players get educations. I just don't think this is a good way to measure that.

Pigskin Parity

Michael Wilbon has a nice article up about parity in college football. He frames it in reference to Maryland fans' dissatisfaction with this year's team. They feel like since they've won 10 games three years in row that they should just continue that. Nuh uh. It doesn't work like that. Not anymore (if it ever really did). Not at Nebraska, not at Texas, not at Alabama, not at Ohio State and certainly not at Maryland.

With reduced scholarships, increased television coverage and more national recruiting, it's very hard to maintain a consistent advantage over your rivals. But hey, that's part of what makes it so fun. Wins are not guaranteed, so enjoy them while you're getting them (if you are getting them, that is).

Zook Hooked

You've probably seen by now, but I'll tell ya anyway. Florida fired head football coach Ron Zook today. Curiously, they are letting him finish out the season as a lame gator.

I have no problem with the firing; it was inevitable. Actually, I'm kind of happy, because it gives me a second chance to post about his fraternity escapades. I meant to post about it at the time, but never did. Now it's topical again!

Anyway, the story is (read here for the frat brothers' take), an offensive lineman or three got involved in an altercation with a few fraternity brothers in the Phi Kappa Pi (Pi Phi for boys) house. Now, in my fraternity in college, three D1 offensive lineman would have kicked the crap out of everyone in the house. Maybe Florida frat boys are huge, or maybe Gator linemen are wimps.

So, the next day, Zook and about 15 or so players show up at the house again, presumably to fight or maybe just intimidate the brothers again. Classic! Did Alpha Beta burn their house down and need the geek house again? I love the quote from Zook, "I will do anything in my power to take this house down." Yes, yes, that's exactly what a beleagured head coach needs to be doing with his time. Getting rid of those bullying frat boys. Hell, if they're beating up his linemen, maybe he should have been recruiting at the Pi Kappa Phi house.

Ah well, I'll miss coach Zook.

Zing!

Julius Hodge, comedian.

When asked about Rashad McCants' now infamous "jail" quote, Hodge had this to say:

I don't look at it in that same way, because if that's the way he looks at it, I would hate to see what their shower scene looks like.

You can read that here, right at the bottom. You can bet that I'll be adding that one to my Miscellaneous Quotes list.

Better Get A Muzzle For Gary

This is pretty fascinating. According to Dan Hughes, the director of basketball operations for the MAC, refs can actually whistle a technical foul on coaches for yelling at their own players! It's not clear if he meant that this was only in the MAC, but it sounded like he was implying it was a national rule.

Can you imagine this? What would Gary Williams do if after berating his bench players because someone on the court didn't fight through a screen, he turned around to see a ref giving him a T? His head might explode.

Maybe they should go further. Maybe they should also give out technicals for particularly bad coaching. Tweeeeet!!! Technical foul on Coach Gillen. He used all of his timeouts before the 6 minute mark of the first half.

RIP RPI

OK, they aren't really killing it, but it made for a better headline. What's really happening is that the good folks at the NCAA have decided to tweak the lame RPI. Good. What they are doing is taking into account the location of games, whether they are home, road or neutral. That's a welcome change, as the old RPI completely ignored this.

In my not-so-humble opinion, the RPI is still a fairly poor way to rate teams, but this makes it better. If they are going to use a computer ranking, I'd rather see them go with a real, sophisticated system like Jeff Sagarin's or Ken Pomeroy's.

The cynic in me thinks that they may be making this change purely because they don't like people knowing their "secret" formula. As you know, the NCAA has never officially said what algorithm they use and doesn't release their numbers, but many people have figured out what it was and put out their own rankings.

Joe Lunardi of espn.com gives a pretty good breakdown of the change and what it might mean here.

More Latino Soccer

The other day, I linked to an article about a Hispanic soccer league here in Raleigh. I was amazed that they actually recruit pro players from Mexico and other South and Central American countries.

Well, here's an article from the New York Times about a similar league in New York. This league is an over-40 league and has many former pro and national team stars. It's pretty interesting that you could go out and watch these guys play - guys who played in World Cups years ago.

Thanks to the Sports Economist for the link.

DBR Previews

A while back, I was dutifully keeping up with the Duke Basketball Report's ACC previews. Somehow, I fell behind. Instead of linking to them all separately, I'll just send to the Maryland preview. From there, it's a pretty easy link to the rest.

They've finished all eleven previews and they do a really good job. Yeah, there are previews like this all over the web, but I like to reward the non-commercial sites when I can. These guys make no money on their site, but they really know ACC basketball and they do a great job. Their team previews and long and thorough. I highly recommend that you read them all.

ACC Preview - Week 8

Things are a bit quieter this weekend in the ACC as there are only four games. Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia Tech are all idle this weekend, healing up for the second half of the season. All four games are conference games, and two are somewhat critical, for different reasons. You'll read why below.

Maryland at Clemson - The Desperation Bowl! Both Maryland and Clemson began this season ranked in the top 25 and with high hopes of competing for the conference title and accompanying BCS bid. Both have fallen flat on their faces and are on the short list of most underachieving teams in the nation.

On Clemson's behalf, the "honor" is somewhat undeserved, as the team was given too much credit at first. The Tigers did finish the 2003 season on an exceptionally high note, but they lost several key linemen from that team. As any football person will tell you, good, consistent line play is critical to good football teams. That said, even the most prudent prognosticators didn't expect Clemson to be 2-4 at this point.

For Maryland, their hopes maybe weren't quite as high as Clemson's and they haven't been quite as bad ... until the past two weeks. The stinkers that the Terrapins dropped the last few weeks were bad enough to water eyes from DC to Seattle. I'll never fully understand how a Ralph Friedgen team could fail to gain 100 yards in back-to-back games. It's not even like they have had some serious spate of injuries to blame.

So, what we have here are two underachieving teams desperate to turn their seasons around. Thus the moniker, Desperation Bowl.

Statistically, Maryland has been the better team. They have been more effective than the Tigers in every statistical category on both sides of the ball except for passing offense. In fairness, the Terrapins have probably played a slightly easier schedule. The problem for them is that they are trending down. While Clemson has played badly, they haven't played 81-yards-of-total-offense badly.

Given that this game is in Death Valley and that Maryland has been awful the past few weeks, I have to give the advantage to Clemson. They got a chance to feel good about themselves last week while beating up the Sisters of the Poor in their homecoming game. I say they continue their winning streak in a fierce, close and ugly match.

Aside: This is no knock on the guy, but would announcers quit hyping up Steve Suter as if he's the most dangerous guy in the league? Yeah, he's career return yardage leader in the ACC, but most of that happened pre-knee injury. Check the numbers this year. He's ninth in the league in put returns. I'm just sayin'.

Virginia at Duke - The schedule is kind to the Cavaliers. After they finished picking the fragmented pieces of their hype, egos and jock straps from the grass of Doak Campbell, the Hoos had to be happy to see who was next. Duke. That line of the schedule is like a little slice of heaven for ACC teams. Most years (and certainly recently), Duke = W.

One might think that Virginia was beaten so badly by the Seminoles on Saturday night that they might have a carry-over effect and play poorly against the Blue Devils. I don't see that happening. This is a very well-coached team and they will be ready on Saturday. Al Groh made it clear that he was not at all pleased with the effort in Tallahassee and he declared that all defensive starters had to re-earn their positions on the depth chart this week. You can bet it was a spirited week of practice. The Hoos will be ready.

For Duke, it's been a tough season. Based on their performances last year after Ted Roof took over, they had every reason to be optimistic about this season. I admit that I thought they'd be tough. They haven't been. The only thing Duke has done well is force turnovers. Think of how bad things would be if they hadn't been so fortunate with turnovers?

Anyway, while Duke often plays Virginia surprisingly close, I expect a blowout this weekend.

Florida State at Wake Forest - I've written several times this year about Wake Forest's ability to play almost everyone close. Well, now you get to see the "almost" part. Florida State learned a few things about themselves last weekend against Virginia, and what they learned was all good. I don't expect them to be anywhere near as fired up or focused as they were against the Cavaliers, but they don't need to be against Wake.

Wake will probably keep the game pretty close for a while. They have that unusual offense and the execute it very well. Their misdirection should work well to offset the speed of Florida State's defense. For a while. Eventually, they'll tire and the Seminoles will start to roll on both sides of the ball. There is just too much of a talent and speed differential.

Look for Florida State to win by at least two touchdowns.

Miami at NC State - And now we come to the other interesting game of the weekend. This is the game that NC State and its fans have been looking forward to. The Wolfpack has upset Florida State several times in recent years and they'd love to add an Ibis scalp to their collection. State has the speed on defense (ranked #1 in the country) to offset much of Miami's offensive speed, and frankly the Hurricanes haven't really been that great on offense all season. Where NC State will have trouble is when they have the ball. Miami also has a stout D, although Louisville showed that it can be had by a good offense. If only State had a good offense...

The biggest deterrent to NC State pulling off this upset is the attention this game is getting. ESPN's College Gameday crew will be in Raleigh for this game. That's not good. The best chance any underdog has is for the favorite to not be mentally prepared, to underestimate their foe. That's tough when the preeminent college show is in town, implying that there's a real chance at an upset. It's similar to Virginia's trip to Tallahassee last weekend. The Seminoles had to hear all week about how they were going to lose in their stadium. By the time the game rolled around, their blood was boiling and they wanted to kill. The Hurricanes might feel the same way on Saturday. On the flip side, Miami won't have a home crowd to cheer them on like FSU did. On the contrary you can bet that Carter-Finley will be packed and rocking on Saturday night, trying to will their Pack to the win.

All that taken into account, I still think NC State can win this game. They have the players to do it. In fact, they have a ton of players from Miami, many of whom were recruited by the Canes. In the end though, I think they'll come up short. Like I said, Miami just won't be looking past them, especially after their close call with Louisville last week. I say Miami wins a close one, maybe with a big special teams play.

Modern Cathedrals

The Sports Economist has a very interesting post about a paper concerning the economic impact of building medieval cathedrals and comparing that to building modern sports arenas. The argument is that the full cost is not just price of the arena or stadium, but also the opportunity costs. What else could that money, labor and material be used for?

It's a pretty interesting (if a bit eggheaded) read.

Kornheiser On NHL

Tony Kornheiser nails my feelings about the NHL lockout. It can be summed up thusly: so what?

Now in fairness, I am not a big hockey fan. I have nothing against the game, I just don't have the time in my life for another sport and I have plenty, thank you.

The thing is, we're quickly finding out that millions and millions of Americans, even many who went to game, feel the same way. Where' the outrage? I'm sure it's everpresent in Canada, but down here in the States, no one cares. And why should we? The game expanded too fast and is now eating itself.

The players have jetted off to Europe to play in other leagues. They don't care.

The owners aren't scheduling day-after-day meetings to get this resolved. They don't care.

Why should I care?

Eric Williams Sick

This wouldn't really be newsworthy if he hadn't had a serious bout of illness this summer, but Wake's Eric Williams is sick again. It doesn't sound like they really know why, but when you lose 15 pounds in one day, that's a big deal, even when you're as big as he is. If you don't remember, he had a pretty serious illness this summer that they decided was food poisoning. I hope nothing worse is going on.

UNC: Blue Heaven or Prison?

You know, I think maybe I need to make a special feature here. I could call it something like Rashad's Crazy Action of the Week. Something like that. This guy is a goldmine!

His most recent gift to opposing fans is his comparison of UNC to prison. Yes, that's right. Prison.

His quote (and you better believe I'm putting it in the quotes pool for the Random Quotes), "You're not allowed to say certain things, but once you get out of jail, you're free. [I'm] in my sentence and I'm doing my time."

That's awesome. I guess his prison tats make a bit more sense now.

Update: Roy Williams and McCants had a press conference today (10/19/2004) where coach Williams bascially read him the riot act and Rashad explained/apologized. I think that was a pretty good way for Roy to handle it. Confront it straight on and make McCants own up. Read some quotes or listen to the whole thing here.

You Ain't Got No Alibi

The ACC unveiled its new logo and divisional names yesterday. You can see the logo to the right. I have one word: UGLY!

What were they thinking? Yeah, it's sort of like the old logo, but that just doesn't work any more. There are too many states. Did you even notice the tiny little dot way up at the top for Boston College?

The new division names are very clever: Atlantic and Coastal. Get it? They used the first two words in "Atlantic Coast Conference!" They must have paid some big bucks to a marketing agency to come up with those. Nevermind that Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are nowhere near any coast.

Here are those divisions:

ESPN College GameDay Coming

ESPN's College GameDay crew is coming to Raleigh this weekend to host their show at Carter-Finley in honor of the Miami-NC State game. That's a pretty big and surprising honor for NC State. It's not often that they go to a game featuring an unranked team. I guess they see the same potential that I do - upset.

ACC Review - Week 7

Louisville at Miami - Miami dodged a bullet in this one. I don't know if they didn't play their best game or if they just aren't that much better than Louisville. Either way, the Hurricanes were extremely lucky to come back and win. If a Louisville defender doesn't drop an easy interception late in the game, the Cardinals would have won.

It may be that Miami needed a game like this to get their attention. They expected a close game with Florida State, but they've just been coasting since, seemingly ordained into the BCS. They need to be careful though. There are a few teams in the ACC that are good enough to beat them if they don't play their best. I think maybe they know that now.

For Louisville, it was definitely a good loss, although it probably didn't feel that way at the time. It was at Miami, on national TV, on Thursday night and it was a great, great game. The whole country saw how good the Cardinals are and that can only help them down the road.

Duke at Georgia Tech - Georgia Tech appears to be rounding into shape. One week after dismantling Maryland on the road, they methodically and soundly beat Duke. This was a perfect game for a letup, but they never really gave Duke a chance. Very quietly, the Yellow Jackets are laying claim to second-tier status in the conference along with Virginia, NC State and Virginia Tech.

For Duke, well, it's looking like the Ted Roof optimism is over. They aren't going to win more games than they won last year, in part because of a series of injuries. Fortunately for coach Roof, not much is expected of Duke football. The alumni aren't going to be calling for his head unless he puts together three or more seasons of this kind of play.

Utah State at Clemson - Clemson has been in a slump. One way to fight out of a slump is to get yourself a slumpbuster. Well, Utah State was Clemson's slumpbuster. At least, that's what the Tigers hope.

There's really not much they can take from this game other than the relief that they didn't lose again. We'll see if it works next weekend when they host a reeling Maryland in the Desperation Bowl.

Florida A&M at Virginia Tech -
You put your left foot in
You take your left foot out
You put your left foot in, and you shake it all about
You pay to play a patsy and blow those suckers out
That's what it's all about!

NC State at Maryland - As I alluded two last week, this was a critical game for both teams. Maryland and NC State were both coming off of upset losses and both had previously missed out on non-conference upset chances. One more loss could send their season to a tailspin.

I thought that Maryland would pull it out, but I was wrong. Way wrong. Last week, Maryland was humiliated at home by Georgia Tech, gaining only 81 yards. What did they do for an encore? Gain 91 yards against NC State! That just blows my mind. Hell, the 81 yards for a Ralph Friedgen team already blew my mind. Only 91 yards one week later hosed my mind chunks into the gutter. What is wrong with Maryland? I wonder how much sleep Fridge has had the last few nights? Words fail to describe how baffled I am at the Terps' offensive ineptitude. Isn't Ralph Friedgen supposed to be an offensive genius? The Cleveland Browns got more than 91 yards last Sunday on one play!

For NC State, this win was important for several reasons. First, it kept their season alive and on track. Second, it exorcised their turtle demons; Chuck Amato had yet to beat Maryland. Third, it showed that their defense, which faltered last week against North Carolina, is legit. While Maryland may have a bad offense, it takes a pretty stout team to hold their opponent to under 100 yards.

Next up for the Wolfpack is Miami at home. One thing NC State has done consistently under Chuck Amato is gotten up for the big opponents and pulled some upsets. They are a legitimate threat to beat Miami next week in Raleigh.

North Carolina at Utah - As soon as I wrote that I thought Carolina would upset Utah, I had regrets. Just after I published it, I remembered the three suspended pot smokers. I rationalized it to myself thusly - what harm could it do to lose the Tar Heels' leading tackler? Could the defense actually be worse? Would Marge Schott have been uglier if she lost a tooth?

Well, it turned out that their defense could get worse, believe it or not. As bad as their defense was though, the real problem for UNC was actually the offensive injuries. Starting tailback Jacque Lewis went down on the first series. Darian Durant didn't finish the first half. For Carolina to have a chance in any game, they need points. Take away their best offensive players, and well, that's how they got beat 46-16 and gave up 669 yards of offense.

I bet that was a long plane ride home

Virginia at Florida State - And now we get to the big game of the weekend.

You've heard the chaos theory saying that if a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it could set off a tornado in Texas? Well, that's what happened last week in Tallahassee. A few dozen AP voters flapped their pens, giving UVA a higher ranking than Florida State, setting off a perfect storm in Doak Campbell Stadium. In my numerical analysis of the game, I forgot those numbers, and they turned out to be the most important. The Seminoles and their fans saw the rankings shift as a slap in their face. Never before had Florida State hosted an ACC game against a higher ranked opponent. They were furious and motivated and it showed.

The team that Florida State put on the field on Saturday night bore little resemblance to the teams they've fielded in recent years. That looked like the 1993 Seminoles, crushing everyone they played.

For all the praise that Wyatt Sexton earned for his stellar play on Saturday night (and the praise was much deserved), it was the defensive line that really won the game. Florida State dominated Virginia in every aspect, but their D-line did the most damage. Coming in to the game, Virginia's offensive line was trumpeted as one of the best in the country. The generally accepted thinking was that they would hold FSU's speedy defense at bay, opening up running lanes that would later become passing lanes. Nope. Didn't happen. Virginia couldn't run and they couldn't protect the QB. A team that was averaging about 275 rushing yards a game could muster only 20. A team that had allowed only 2 sacks all season gave up 6. The Seminoles were swarming. The fearful fact for future foes is that by the middle of the third quarter, Florida State had played 12 different defensive linemen. Not only are they nasty, they're deep.

Coaching-wise, it was a mismatch as well. It's hard to say that Florida State's in-game play calls were good or bad, because everything worked. They had no adjustments to make. For Virginia though, they stubbornly stuck to a plan to establish a running game long after it was apparent that it wouldn't work. It wasn't until the final drive of the first half, when they were in two minute mode, did Virginia stop trying to run on every first and second down. And low-and-behold, they moved the ball! By then though, it was too late.

For as bad and one-sided as the game was, there were a few critical first-half plays that could have changed the tone. Nothing would have changed the final outcome - Florida State was gonna win no matter what - but it didn't need to be a blowout. The first was a minor face mask penalty on fourth down when Florida State had run a fake punt and failed. The five yards made it fourth and inches. The Seminoles went for it and got the first down, eventually getting a field goal. That simple penalty was basically a turnover at a time when the game was still just 2-0.

A second minor face mask penalty came a bit later, when Florida State had failed to convert a third down deep in Virginia territory. The five yards earned them a first down, and they ended up getting a touchdown instead of a field goal.

The third mistake was basic time mismanagement at the end of the half. On several of Virginia's final plays, they let the play clock run for way too long before getting the snap off. Those seconds cost them a chance at what seemed to be a sure touchdown just before the half. They had moved the ball to inside the five yard line, but with the clock running out, had to settle for the field goal.

Those three small miscues add up to 11 points. The halftime score was 19-3, but it could have been just 12-7. Either way, Virginia was going to lose, but it's interesting to see how just a few mental mistakes can make such a huge difference.

So, where does this put these teams? Surely everyone views them completely differently than they did one week ago. One thing to remember after a game like this is that Florida State is not as good as they looked and Virginia is not as bad. Sometimes everything just comes together for one team and that's what happened on Saturday night.

If the Seminoles can even approach that level of effort and production for the rest of the year, they will not lose again and they have an outside shot at a national title. They looked that good.

For Virginia, they need to lick their wounds and learn from their mistakes. They can't afford to let that game beat them twice. Fortunately, their next game is at Duke and then they get the broken Terrapins at home. They should be able to win both fairly easily and then get ready for Miami at home. Despite what we saw Saturday night, UVA is good enough to beat the Canes.

La Liga

This is a pretty interesting article from the News & Observer about the hispanic soccer league in Raleigh, Liga de Raleigh. In just four years, the league has grown to 55 teams and some teams are now recruiting pro players from Mexico!

I've seen these teams playing on the fields, but never paid that much attention, other than to notice that they get pretty good crowds and they have really nice uniforms. The uniforms have always surprised me, because you would assume, given the low economic position of most Central American immigrants, that they wouldn't have the money to waste on such fancy kits. I guess I underestimated the passion and money involved in this league.

Tattoo You

This is great. According to this article, UNC's Rashad McCants recently got two tattoos, one on each arm. On one arm - "Born to be hated." On the other - "Dying to be loved."

That's awesome. I bet Dean Smith is proud. Coincidently, I think Henry Lee Lucas had the same tattoos.

Edit: InsideCarolina.com had a pic.

Basketball Starts!

Man, I almost made it through the day without mentioning what a big day it is. Tonight at midnight, the college basketball season begins. Some places are holding public Midnight Madness practices, but not as many schools as in years past. Lots of coaches have decided they can't waste a practice.

In honor of the day and since there are so many potential links, I'll just link to the page that the guys at the DBR made. It has links to articles about a bumch of different ACC teams.

Get pumped, because it's gonna be a hell of a basketball season!

Miller's Tale

Virginia's junior tight end Heath Miller is not only possibly the best tight end in the country, he might be the best in ACC history. He broke the career tight end touchdown record last year while still a sophomore. He also broke the single season catch and yardage record last year.

It turns out though, that he's not just a star football player. He's a role model for his small town in southwest Virginia. If you don't know the area well, that area of Appalachia has long been one of the poorest regions in the country. There are few jobs to be had and those that are are available are hard, like coal mining or working in a factory. The Washington Post has nice article about Miller and what he means to the people of Swords Creek, VA.

ACC Preview - Week 7

Louisville at Miami - Once again, I failed to get my preview out before a Thursday night game. I'll tell you what I would have said though. I would have said that Louisville is a very good team and Miami better be careful. The Cardinals have had good quarterbacks and a good offense for several years now, but this year their defense is stout as well. Louisville has two shutouts so far this year, including one against a good North Carolina offense.

This game is (was) very important for the ACC. There aren't many non-conference games left against ranked opponents and the ACC hasn't been quite as good as expected. If the top ACC team were to lose to a program perceived as a mid-major (maybe a half step above that, actually - a mid-high-major?), it would kill the league's rep this year.

Duke at Georgia Tech - So, which Georgia Tech shows up this week? The one that was spanked by the erratic Tar Heels or the one that monkey-stomped Maryland in College Park? Against Duke, does it really matter? Probably not. I didn't expect Duke to be very good this year, but I thought they'd be competitive and they really haven't been. Their best game was a near-win against UConn. The Dukies are the kind of team that might just upset someone this year though, and this is one of the more likely games.

Georgia Tech could be ripe for an upset. They are coming off of their best performance in years last weekend. After a bye week, the Hokies come to town, so the Yellow Jackets may not be focused on the Blue Devils. It's not like this team is the Rock of Gibraltar. Still, I think Georgia Tech will win. Duke is still getting used to a new system and they've had a series of injuries to a squad that was never very deep. Don't be shocked if this one turns out to be a close one though.

Utah State at Clemson - This game couldn't come at a better time for Clemson. The Tigers are in disarray. They expected their team to be 4-1 or 3-2 at absolute worst at this point of the season, but they are 1-4. This is still a good team, but they haven't played like it yet, at least not for a full 60 minutes.

Fortunately for Clemson, they won't need their A game against the Aggies (yes, I looked it up) of Utah State. They won't even need their B game to win this one. That said, Clemson really needs to fix their problems and this might be the game to do it. If they can play well and blow Utah State out, it might give the Tigers a foundation to build on for the rest of the season. With Maryland, NC State, Miami, Duke and South Carolina on the schedule, the Tigers' season could still be salvaged or could become a complete disaster. Only Duke is probably a sure win.

Florida A&M at Virginia Tech - Can you tell that it's homecoming weekend? The Rattlers (looked that one up too!) of Florida A&M have been spanked by both Nicholls State and Temple this year. The Hokies have tougher practices.

Have a fun game boys.

NC State at Maryland - Now, this is a pretty interesting game. Both programs are fighting to be in the top of the ACC, and this year's teams are fighting to stay in the top half of the conference. As I wrote yesterday, they are developing a nice little rivalry.

As for this game, I honestly don't know what to expect, other than a close game. Both teams are better on the defensive side of the ball and both are struggling to work in new quarterbacks. On top of that, both lost surprising upsets last week, so they should be fired up for this game. I think State is probably the better team overall, but Ralph Friedgen is a better coach than Chuck Amato. Something tells me that Maryland's recent lucky streak against NC State will continue. Something unexpected will happen late to win/lose this game, like a special teams score or big turnover.

Virginia at Florida State - The game of the week, if not the year in the ACC. I already wrote an analysis of the two teams that showed that they are pretty evenly matched.

For Virginia, this game could be the biggest in program history, but only if they win. Before this weekend, the biggest game in UVA's history was the game against Georgia Tech in 1990 when UVA was #1 and Tech was #16 or so. It was a great game, but UVA lost and went into a tailspin, barely finishing the season in the top 25. As you might recall, the Yellow Jackets went on to win a share of the national championship. If Virginia loses to Florida State this weekend, a similar slide could happen, because they still have several tough games on the schedule. A win would make a serious statement about Virginia and Al Groh and would cement the Cavaliers as the leader of the competition between Maryland, NC State and Virginia to become the best non-Florida program in the ACC.

For Florida State, a loss would end any hope of inclusion in the BCS. A win would keep alive their hope of an automatic bid, but they still need Miami to lose one game.

I think you'll see one of two things in this game. Either one team will make a bunch of mistakes (turnovers) and lose by 2 touchdowns or more, or it'll be close and Florida State will win. I just think the Seminoles have a bit more big play ability, they are used to playing in big games, and they are playing at home.

North Carolina at Utah - By all rights, Carolina should get creamed in this game. Utah is a good team. Carolina is not. But somehow, I don't think this is a no-brainer.

For one thing, North Carolina has good players. They just don't always play well. They got creamed by Virginia and Louisville (who both look to be very good teams), but they beat both Georgia Tech and NC State. If Carolina comes to play, and maintains concentration for the whole game, they can beat just about anyone.

For another thing, Carolina has a recent history of playing well in non-conference away games. They beat a good Arizona State team a couple of years ago when they only won three games all year.

So, here's what I think is gonna happen. It's gonna be a shootout. Carolina's defense can't stop anyone. Even when they beat NC State last week, they gave up over 500 yards of offense. I think being on the road will remove some of the stress they feel playing at home, so they'll be relaxed and make some plays on offense. Don't be surprised if the final score here is something like 42-38.

So, who will be on top? Well, every year some mid-major has a good team and starts winning all of their games. Every year, the media gets all worked up and goes on and on about whether this team with their weaker schedule deserves to be in the BCS and compete for the national championship. And then every year, that team loses to some team they shouldn't lose to. You know why that happens? It's because it's very hard to win all of your games. Only the great teams really beat all the teams they should beat and those mid-major teams are rarely great. So, Utah's gonna lose to someone. Carolina might be the most dangerous team left on their schedule. So, I say UNC beats Utah, further confusing the Tar Heel fans about whether or not they should fire John Bunting.

There's No "I" In UNC

The Tar Heel basketball team thinks (correctly) that it's had too much of a focus on me, me, me in recent years. They swear that that's gonna be different this year. That's good, but then, don't teams always say that? Unfortunately, it's not that easy to change people. It can be done, but not always. Winning always helps.

There's a great Roy Williams quote at the end of this article:

If I'm still sitting here talking about playing as a team, and we've got a bunch of individuals, and that kind of thing, then two things have happened: I'm not doing a very good job, and one of the reasons I'm not doing a very good job is I should have run somebody off.

Run someone off, huh? I think we all know who he's talking about.

Empty Streets

When I was a kid, my friends and I would play sports every afternoon. We didn't necessarily play the sports you see on TV. We played variants of those along with made up games that used rules that fit the geography. If a friend's house had a wall with no windows, we'd make up a game where you'd chuck a ball off the wall or maybe bounce them off the roof. For a small house, we'd throw balls over the roof to a guy on the other side. In a cul-de-sac, we'd play stickball. In a yard, kickball, soccer or football.

Every day, we'd play something. Some seasons, like in the fall, we'd all play organized soccer or basketball, but most of our games had no coaches, leagues or uniforms. And we loved it.

Today, it seems like kids will only play sports if they are part of some league. Actually, the kids probably don't care, but the parents sign them up. So many kids play in so many leagues that if you want your children to have friends to play with, you have to sign them up. That's where the other kids are.

I'm writing about this because I just read the SportsProf's excellent article on this subject, The Dead End. His stuff is always good, but this one particularly hit me. Not only is it very well written, but the subject is something that concerns me. I want my two young boys to play sports, but I hate to think that they may never play a game where you get to make up the rules as you go along.

Deacons Do Defense

It looks like the News & Observer has started running their preseason rundowns of each ACC basketball team. The first piece is about Wake Forest, a team many have ranked as #1 to start the year. As coach Skip Prosser points out though, they are going to need to defend better this season if that ranking is to hold true.

Red Rivals

NC State and Maryland have developed quite a little rivalry in the past four years. Each school recently hired a new coach. Each coach was a well-respected assistant getting his shot at the bigtime at his alma mater. Each coach, Ralph Friedgen at Maryland and Chuck Amato at NC State, found instant success. Both schools feel like they are an up-and-coming national program with alumni buying tickets and merchandise by the fistful.

All those pieces are the basic ingredients for a "this conference ain't big enough fer the both of us" kind of thing. Add to that the four straight narrow wins by Maryland (by a combined 16 points) and mix in a little post-game scrap last year, and you get a nice little batch of rivalry stew. Tastes a bit like turtle soup, I understand.

Big Win For The Country

The big win last night was not just a win for one side, but a win for the whole United States.

The debate? No, not that. Not the Yankees or Cardinals either. Nope, I'm talking about the victorious US Men's soccer team. They waxed that Panamanian ass to the tune of 6-0. It was a very impressive win that guaranteed the US a spot in Stage 2 World Cup qualifying. They do still have one Stage 1 game left, but it's just academic at this point.

I know what you're thinking. Panama? So, what! Well, they aren't really that bad. In fact, with one game left in Stage 1 qualifying, Panama is still alive to make it to Stage 2, or The Hex.

The Hex is a six team qualifier - the top three teams after ten games make the 2006 World Cup as the CONCACAF representatives. So far, the US, Mexico and Guatemala have qualified for Stage 2. A bunch of teams are still alive for the final three spots.

Florida State vs. Virginia, A Statistical Analysis

In case you haven't heard, there's a big ACC football game this weekend. An ACC game with national implications. That just doesn't happen much in this league (for the purposes of this column, the Miami-FSU game earlier this season didn't really count as an ACC game). In fact, the Virginia-Florida State game on Saturday night is just the sixth game in ACC history between top ten teams. It has the two highest ranked teams since #3 FSU hosted #5 North Carolina in 1997.

So, in honor of this big game, I'm gonna break it down a bit statistically. The best way to compare teams before they play is to look at common opponents. It's not a perfect science, but it's the best objective method we have. Fortunately, even though both teams have played just five games, they have three common opponents. Even more coincidently, five of those six games have been home games, with only the Seminoles' trip to Syracuse last weekend as an exception.

So, just who has done better against those common opponents? Let's take a look-see, shall we?

First, let's take a look at the basic stats from the games, including final scores and offensive and defense yards:

The first thing to look at is that Virginia won by a wider margin in all three games. Both teams beat UNC and Clemson fairly comfortably, but only Virginia handled Syracuse easily. Virginia outscored Florida State against two of the three teams and also allowed fewer points in two of the three games. The average score of the three games was 39-15 for UVA and 32-17 for FSU, about a one touchdown advantage for the Cavs.

For offensive yardage production, Virginia outgained FSU. In two of the three games, the difference was fairly significant (about one hundred yards) and against Syracuse, oddly enough, they managed the exact same amount of yards. The average gain for UVA was a whopping 480 yards and for Florida State, a solid 413. Again, advantage Cavaliers.

On the defensive side of the ball, Florida State was more impressive. They allowed fewer yards in two of the three games and were pretty close in the fourth. One thing to take notice of though is that FSU allowed 40 fewer yards against Clemson, but gave up two touchdowns on returns. Those returns robbed Clemson of two offensive possessions where they probably would have gotten a few more yards. The overall average yards against was 266 for Florida State to 300 for Virginia. Advantage Noles.

So, looking at those three games against common opponents, you have to give the edge to UVA. They score more points and move the ball more, while allowing fewer points. Teams do move the ball better against UVA, but that could be due to the bend-but-don't-break mentality of their schemes. FSU plays a much more aggressive style, trying to get to the quarterback and force mistakes.

If you look at all five games played and compare to national numbers, you get the following rankings (thanks to the ACC weekly release):

Both teams have very impressive numbers across the board, but Virginia's are actually better in every category except for Rushing Defense. That could end of being a very import stat to watch in the game, as each team uses a power running game to set up their passing attack.

So, how about special teams? Virginia leads the ACC in kickoff returns and is second in punt returns. Florida State is 10th and 8th, respectively. For punt coverage however, FSU ranks third while UVA is worst in the conference with a net of only 29 yards.

Penalties are a category that is often overlooked by football analysts. Florida State has long had a reputation as a team that commits lots of penalties, but it's never really hurt them too much. This year though, their offense isn't quite as powerful, so their league worst 82.4 yards of penalties per game could be an issue. Virginia costs themselves only 42.4 yards per game by miscues, a forty yard difference. That's not insignificant.

Lastly, let's take a look at the Sagarin ratings. I like stats, so I've long been a Sagarin supporter. I prefer computer rankings (good ones, that is), because they have no biases. They don't care how good you were last year or how many alumni you have. Also, the computers can do a much better job of finding the correlations between all the different teams and the games they play each weekend.

What does Sagarin say? His rankings have Florida State at #6 in the country and Virginia at #14. As you can see, his computers aren't as impressed with UVA's 5-0 start as the human voters. I have a hunch that the computer is right, at least at this point. The actual ratings for the two teams are 88.09 for the Seminoles and 84.90 for the Cavaliers. Add in the three point home field advantage, and his model predicts a one touchdown win for Florida State.

So, what does all this mean, with some numbers saying Virginia is better and some saying Florida State is better? It doesn't mean a ton actually. Past performances won't win the game Saturday night. What the numbers do tell us is that these two teams are pretty closely matched. They have similar strengths and weaknesses, but Virginia has played a bit better so far (except in Jeff Sagarin's algorithm). One factor the numbers can't measure is the psychological impact of such a big game. Florida State has a huge edge here, as they play several games like this each year. They are used to playing in and winning these games. On top of that, while Virginia really hopes to beat Florida State and it would mean a ton to the program, the Seminoles expect to beat Virginia. There's a big difference.

Who do I think will win? I don't know. My brain says Florida State, but that's largely out of fear. I think it will be a close game and I think Virginia can win. If I had to bet though, I'd pick the Noles, purely for the mental issues and the home crowd.

And Your Chicks For Free

I've always thought that playing in the NBA would be one of the best jobs possible. Well, I just found a better one - not playing in the NBA.

Amal McCaskill is my hero.

ACC Midseason Review

ESPN.com has a midseason review of the ACC. As expected, they say the ACC is improved, but not as good as expected. It's a pretty fair article, but I think, like many national columnists, this guy is giving Virginia too much credit. Yeah, they've looked good so far, but they haven't played a team that's playing well yet. It's not like they've been so good over the years that they deserve the benefit of the doubt. There's still a very good chance that they'll have three conference losses.

We'll see. There's a lot of football to be played. You can be pretty certain that the stories at the end of the year won't be the same as those in the middle.

Hoop Dreams - Hong Kong Style

This is a great story. A 23-year-old, 5'9" Hong Kong man is suing two beauty centers because their treatments to make him taller didn't work. The reason? He plans to play in the NBA someday. Yep, if he were just a few inches taller. Because, after all, he did start playing basketball way back at the age of 12.

Narcissistic Tendencies

This is a great read. SI.com has published an excerpt from Phil Jackson's new book about his last year with the Lakers. The excerpt focuses on Kobe Bryant and Jackson's interpretation of Kobe's "narcissistic tendencies."

There's nothing terribly new here, but it's a pretty rare and honest glimpse behind the scenes of one of modern sports' great soap operas.

ACC Review - Week 6

First off, let me say that this was one crazy weekend. The ACC is completely unpredictable. Right is wrong. Up is down. John Bunting can coach. It's nuts, I say.

It's weekends like this past one that remind me why I don't bet on sports. You can look at past performance all you want, but you just can't accurately predict sports outcomes, especially when you are talking about groups of 18-22-year-olds. I certainly hope no one is using my Previews as advice for how they want to bet. If anyone is, he's dumber than I am and deserves to lose his money.

Clemson at Virginia - Well, I was right that Clemson would come out strong in this game. They are not a bad team, or at least not a bad collection of players. They had their backs to the wall, they were playing a ranked opponent, and the game was on national TV (although Thursday night has not been kind). Sure enough, the Tigers came out firing, marching 80 yards for a touchdown on their first possession. Their defense was equally as fired up, holding the Cavaliers to just two field goals for most of the first half.

Slowly Virginia, turned back the Tigers, seizing control midway through the second quarter with a precise, if unspectacular, running game. The Cavaliers led 13-10 at halftime and then completely dominated the ball and the game in the second half to win 30-10. Virginia's cool efficiency was extremely impressive. They didn't have many big plays, but they just kept moving the chains. Discounting the plays where they took a knee at the end of each half, Virginia converted 14 of 18 third downs. After three of those failed conversions, they kicked field goals.

Defensively, UVA stuffed Clemson after that first drive. The Tigers managed only 131 yards the rest of the night, despite Charlie Whitehurst's best game of the season. Maybe "best" isn't the right word. How about "least mediocre" game?

If you watched the game, you heard the College Gameday guys, Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit, practically drooling over Virginia's offensive line play. They needed a moist towelette by the end of the game. The praise was deserved though, as Clemson's D line got blown off the ball all night long. After Wali Lundy fumbled at Clemson's 6 yard line (one play that helped keep the score appear closer than it really was), backup Alvin Pearman took over for the Cavaliers and gained over 100 yards. This team is deep and talented.

One interesting play happened in the second quarter after Virginia's second field goal. They kicked off to Clemson's Justin Miller, the ACC's leading all-purpose runner. He was tackled by Pearman, the ACC's second leading all-purpose runner. I bet that sort of convergence hasn't happened too often.

For Clemson, the season is pretty much shot. Like most ACC teams, they are still good enough to win almost any game they play, but you just never know when they'll show up to play. They could lose any game just as easily win. If it weren't for the huge (and dumb) extension they gave Tommy Bowden last year, he'd surely be getting his house ready for the market.

For Virginia, this was their best win, but it's irrelevant now, as their biggest game of the season (so far) is this weekend in Tallahassee. I'll have a separate article just about that game a bit later in the week.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - I got this wrong, but just barely. I thought Tech would come out flat and be upset. They actually played fairly well, but still almost lost. For the third time this year, Wake went down to the last play of the game, and for the third time, they lost. You have to feel for the Deacons. Like I said before, they are good enough to play with anyone, but they just can't seem to make that one or two extra plays to win.

For the Hokies, this was a pretty important game. They are not a great team, so it's important to beat the teams they should beat. With Maryland and NC State crapping the laundry hamper this weekend, the door is open for the Hokies. They could easily sneak into the top four in the conference. With games left against both Virginia and Miami, they could possibly even go higher than that. I wouldn't count on it, but anything's possible this year.

Georgia Tech at Maryland - And the award for Most Shocking Result of the weekend goes to Georgia Tech beating Maryland 20-7 in College Park. Talk about one that no one saw coming! I mean, I knew that Georgia Tech had some unproven talent, and they did beat Clemson in Death Valley, but they also got spanked by UNC.

It's not the fact that Tech beat Maryland that's surprising, it's the manner in which they did it. I never would have guessed that Ralph Friedgen-coached team would manage to muster only 81 yards in a game. 81 yards! I would be impressed if Miami held Duke to 81 yards, but Georgia Tech stuffing the Terps like that? By the end of the game, the Maryland offense was fetching muffins for Georgia Tech and freshening up their coffee. Who will protect this house, indeed.

So, what to make of this result? Is Georgia Tech actually a really good team? Is Maryland a really bad team? Honestly, I have no idea. Actually, what I think is that the conference is loaded with mediocre teams who have the capacity to play well and to play poorly. Good teams are consistent, and most of the ACC teams are not consistent yet. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State and Maryland are about as predictable as Mike Tyson after six cups of coffee.

Florida State at Syracuse - This one was very nearly the third shocker of the day, as Florida State got themselves in a hole against Syracuse and only barely dug out. Like Wake against Virginia Tech, Syracuse had the ball at the end of the game chucking it in the end zone for the win. Fortunately, like the Hokies, the Seminoles held strong, intercepting Perry Patterson to secure the win.

The big question after this game is why was it close? Syracuse has played two other highly ranked teams this season, Purdue and Virginia, and was waxed by both by at least three touchdowns. Supposedly, Florida State is better than each of those teams. So, is Syracuse just getting a bit better (likely), or is Florida State not really that great (possible)? Another potential reason is that Florida State took the Orange(men) a bit too lightly and were looking forward to next week's showdown with the Cavaliers. I'm not sure I really buy that one, because I suspect that the Seminole players don't really respect Virginia that much, but it is an excuse that even coach Bowden was offering. I just think FSU was flat. Like Bobby said, they probably should have lost the game.

NC State at North Carolina - Last, but certainly not least, is the most controversial game of the weekend, and probably the season. As for predicting the outcome, I've been kicking myself for writing that Carolina really had no chance. I've written so many times this year that the Tar Heels really do have good players and are capable of beating anyone, but I got blinded by their recent poor play. Sure enough, the rivals from Raleigh brought out the best in the Blue Boys.

To be fair, it wasn't just that Carolina played better, but that NC State shot themselves in the foot too often. The Wolfpack outgained the Tar Heels 577 to 356. The difference is that the Pack turned the ball over three times and Carolina didn't lose the ball once. As I wrote about yesterday, the last turnover was the biggie for State. TA McClendon, one play after appearing to score the winning touchdown before it was called back, fumbled at the goal line, costing State the game.

So, what does this win mean for these teams? It could mean a lot, actually. For Carolina and John Bunting, it changes everything. Suddenly, the awful Heels are 3-3 and 2-2 in the conference. A few more decent performances and this could actually be a bowl team. Going 6-5 would almost certainly save John Bunting's job. That was inconceivable just a few weeks ago. It's still unlikely, but winning, like losing, can be addictive. The Heels can't keep allowing teams to roll up over 500 yards of offense and hope that they turn the ball over at key moments, but maybe a few bright days will change attitudes in Chapel Hill. A team that believes it can win is dangerous.

For State, the loss puts them in a precarious situation. They still have games with Maryland, Miami, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. All of those games are losable (and winnable), although 3-2 or 2-3 is most likely. Three or four conference losses would probably mean that Chuck Amato would once again fail to get his team above fourth in the conference. In reading message boards at PackPride.com, I started seeing some of the first criticisms of the Amato regime. Could this game be the one that finally ends the honeymoon in Raleigh? I suspect so. Charm and promises can only go so far. Eventually, the Pack needs to live up to the hope and hype.

Creepy Carl

You all knew that Carl Lewis was one of the fastest men ever. You could make an argument for him being one of the best athletes of the twentieth century.

The thing is, he's also the strangest and creepiest guy ever. Just watch that vid and see if you dare disagree with me.

Thanks to The Hood .. er Jackie Chiles, I mean, for the link.

Heels Suspended

Carolina fans hoped that last weekend's big upset win over rival NC State would light a spark under the Tar Heels for the rest of the season. I don't think that this is what they had in mind.
It seems that three UNC footballers, including leading tackler Fred Sparkman were cited by campus police for possession of marijuana. I guess they were sparking up in a different way.

The three are suspended indefinitely.

Was He In?

I don't have digital cable, so I wasn't able to see the UNC-NC State football game. I was watching it closely through Yahoo's updates and when the key play at the end happened, I checked NC State's message boards for an explanation. The key of course, is the play where TA McClendon gets in the end zone and one official signals a touchdown. He was overruled and they spotted the ball just outside the goal line, saying TA's knee was down.

Was it a good call? I don't think there will ever be consensus. Carolina fans will always say yes and State fans will say no. Well, you can decide for yourself. Here is a slo-mo replay of the play in question. It's not conclusive, but the critical moments are around seconds 11-13 or so. It does look like his knee was down (I think), but it's not clear where the ball is. It would be nice to see another angle or two, but since this game wasn't televised by a major network, those other angles may not exist.

The funny thing is that as I read Yahoo's running account, I thought to myself "TA's gonna fumble." He's made similar mistakes once or twice in the past. Sure enough he did on the play after the one in that video.

Mack Back?

I'm not normally a huge Skip Bayless fan. He's a blowhard, but this is a pretty good article about Mack Brown. It seems the Texas folks have figured out what Carolina fans learned years ago - Brown is great on the recruiting trail and at alumni events, but not so good in big games. His teams win a lot, but always leave the fans feeling like maybe they should have won a few more.

This weekend, he has another big game against Oklahoma, and if UT gets blown out again (they lost 65-13 last year!), the Longhorn faithful might be looking to dump the Mack Daddy.

Hmmm, Brown on the skids at UT while UNC is likely to get rid of their coach.

Would Carolina like to go back to the days of being frustrated with 9 win seasons instead of being frustrated with 3 win seasons?

Keep Bunting!

Ned Barnett of the News & Observer says that UNC should not fire John Bunting yet. I have no evidence that Barnett is actually an NC State fan, but I have my suspicions now.

He makes a pretty strong case for keeping Bunting with this paragraph:

Bunting's record is not good, and his teams are not getting better. His defenses work like a man trying to catch goldfish with a soccer net. His teams have posted staggering losses at Virginia and at home against Louisville. These Heels made William & Mary look like Ricky Williams & Maryland.

Mmmm hmmm. I think I see what you're talking about, Ned.

ACC Preview - Week 6

Clemson at Virginia - The ACC football weekend starts early with a bang this week, as the best game is tonight at 7:30. Whenever Clemson and Virginia play, you're going to hear references to "white meat" and 29-0, referring to the long domination of the Cavaliers by the Tigers. Those days are long gone though. Since UVA finally broke through, beating Clemson for the first time in 1990, UVA has won half of their 14 matchups.

This year, Virginia clearly looks to be the better team, undefeated and ranked in the top ten. They have blown out every team they have faced. But the season really starts tonight for the Cavaliers, as the Tigers are the first team that has a legitimate shot at beating them. Is Virginia really that good? We won't know until we see how they respond in a close game. If we don't find out tonight, we will soon. After Clemson, Virginia still has games at FSU and Virginia Tech and at home against Maryland, Miami and Georgia Tech.

For the Tigers, this season has been a mess. They lost one game that they shouldn't have, to a mediocre Georgia Tech and got spanked in another game that they should have at least competed in (at Texas A&M). In their one win, home against Wake Forest, they had to rally late to force overtime, winning in the second extra period. The most obvious problem for the Tigers so far has been the play of QB Charlie Whitehurst, once thought to be a Heisman darkhorse. Instead, he's thrown for 10 interceptions and only 5 touchdowns in four games.

So, what will happen tonight? I think Clemson will come out fighting, but I have a feeling that Virginia will hold serve. Even though they lost start defensive lineman Chris Canty to a blown knee, they are just too strong and balanced. Virginia can run and throw and they can keep you from running and throwing. They have also gotten two scores from kick returns. I'm guessing this game will be pretty close, within 10 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if Clemson spits the bit again and loses by three touchdowns.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - This week, the Hokies get their first look at an ACC road game. The thing is, it probably won't look like it. Wake doesn't really have a ton of hometown fans and Blacksburg isn't far away. I bet there will be lots of maroon and orange in Winston-Salem this weekend. That said, this one smells like an upset to me. Wake has been playing well, but narrowly losing several games this year. The Hokies are just coming off and emotional upset over rival West Virginia. I bet it'll be hard for Frank Beamer to convince his boys that Wake is for real. They'll have to learn it the hard way.

I say Wake gets their first conference win of the year on Saturday.

Georgia Tech at Maryland - This Maryland team seems to be following the pattern of all of Ralph Friedgen's Terp teams - start off somewhat slowly and get better and better each week. Somehow, the Terps seem to surprise people every year as they quietly win games. Now that sophomore QB Joel Statham has settled down, this is a good team.

Georgia Tech on the other hand is starting to look like a bad team. There's no embarrassment in being spanked by Miami, but scoring only 3 points is troubling. It's particularly galling when you add it to the previous game, a 34-13 shellacking by a bad North Carolina team. I said before that I thought that UNC game was possibly an aberration for the Yellow Jackets, but I may have been wrong. Their freakish win at Clemson may actually be the aberration (although if Clemson continues to play poorly, that may not be accurate either).

So, Maryland's good and Georgia Tech isn't. Add to that the revenge factor - Tech upset Maryland 7-3 last year in a nationally televised Thursday night game. Maryland's gonna win this one, and it could get ugly.

Florida State at Syracuse - Two weeks ago, I accurately predicted that Virginia would beat Syracuse, probably in a blowout. I think Florida State is better than Virginia. Now, guess what I think is going to happen in this game?

Actually, this game may not be quite a blowout, at least not in the sense of three or four touchdown win. The Seminoles just don't have their typical explosive offense. They've only hit 40 points once, in their 41-22 win over Clemson. I expect they'll score pretty close to that against the Orange (what a dumb name). The key is that their defense is still stifling. Syracuse has the 94th best offense in the country. They ain't gonna score a ton of points on the Seminoles, even in the Carrier Dome.

So look for this one to be a game where the outcome is never really in doubt, but don't expect something like 56-3.

NC State at North Carolina - You never really know with rivalry games right? Well, sometimes you do.

North Carolina is more than capable of putting everything together and whomping up on the Wolfpack, but I wouldn't bet my mortgage on it. Hell, I wouldn't even bet your mortgage on it. I think the Tar Heels are a very fragile bunch that is perilously close to complete collapse.

NC State, on the other hand, is starting to round into shape. Their quarterback play still isn't what they'd like and it may never get there, but they did start to get some more yards out of the passing game against Wake Forest. At the same time, T.A. (Trainer Anytime) McClendon had his best game of the year, and their defense is still ranked #1 in the country. So, the defense is great, the offense is good and getting better and they are going to be fired up against a psychologically weak opponent. On top of all of that, expect Kenan stadium to have copious amounts of red in it on Saturday as aggressive Wolfpack fans have been gobbling up tickets. They love nothing better than embarrassing their powder blue friends and beating them in their own house is a great way to do that.

So, I expect State will roll in this one, winning big. At the same time, I have this small thought way in a back janitor's closet of my brain that thinks the Tar Heels might put it together for once and steal this one. Naaaaah. State in a cakewalk.

The Hawks Soar?

No, this isn't a link to a video of John Ascroft singing. Thank God for that. Nope. It's a link to a SportsProf article about St. Joe's and their prospects this year.

Why do I care, you ask? Well, because they've been a great story the last couple of years. The little school that could. That and because damn if the SportsProf can't write a little. Read this article and compare it to the head sportswriter at your local newspaper. Pretty funny that one's a professional and one's a Guy With A Blog.

Gillentine

I really hate to do this. I do. I'm a Virginia fan, Pete Gillen seems like a genuinely good guy and this kid seems like a good kid. But I just can't figure out why Virginia offered Stephan Kendall a scholarship. Kendall is a rising junior, meaning he is a recruit for the 2006 class.

Now, I've already bitched about Gillen's signing of players that are not nationally ranked, but bear with me as I do it again. I understand that many college stars weren't ranked coming out of high school, but I also know that you can't count on finding those players all the time. In the ACC, you need to land a few top 100 players every year or you're gonna get your ass handed to you by all the other teams that do.

So, let me run down three problems here. First, the kid just doesn't sound like he's an ACC-level player. He plays at Blue Ridge School in Virginia and scored about 10 points a game last year as a shooting guard. I went to high school and played a bunch of sports (not including varsity basketball) in the same league as Blue Ridge, and it's NOT a top high school league. It's a league of top private schools, some boarding, made up mostly of rich white kids. 6' 4" players like Kendall are usually centers or power forwards in the Prep League. If he's only scoring 10 points a game, then he's not elite. I understand he was only a sophomore, but he repeated his sophomore year, so he was actually a junior in age. Guys the other ACC teams are recruiting are scoring 20-25 points a game at that age. If you don't believe me that Kendall is not a top recruit, google on his name and see how much info you find about him.

The second problem is that Kendall will be the fifth shooting guard on the team. UVA already has rising sophomores Gary Forbes and JR Reynolds, both who deserve starting minutes. In next year's freshman class, UVA will add two more SGs in Mamadi Diane and Brian Moten, neither of which are highly rated.

The third problem is that Kendall represents the last scholarship UVA has for the class of 2006. So, unless a player transfers, they are already done recruiting every junior and senior in the country! They have no chance to get in late with a rising star, the kind of player UVA really needs to find at this point.

I just don't get what Gillen is doing. Maybe he's practicing up for his next job in the MAC.

Ricky: It's High Times To Return

This Ricky Williams story just keeps getting weirder. Now he says wants to play football again. Incredible.

A guess a month was all the traveling he really needed to do. He's done with that now and is ready to play again. Riiiight.

We all know that this really has to do with the $8.6 million that he was ordered to repay to the Dolphins. Remember, Ricky had that really crappy contract in his first few years in the league, so he doesn't have quite the nest egg that some other NFL stars do. He has still made quite a bit of money, but $8.6 large is nothing to sneeze at. After buying a house, some cars and lots and lots of Cheez-Its, Ricky probably doesn't really have much more than $8.6 mil lying around the house.

It's a whole lot easier to be a world-traveling bohemian when you know that you never need to work another day in your life. Take away that financial security, and it just ain't as much fun. I mean, have you seen the price of weed these days? (note to my mom - I haven't either. I'm just guessing.)

So, it turns out that while Ricky may not be the most normal guy in the world, in many ways he's just like so many other pro athletes. He's just in it for the cash (and the stash).

Just A Game

This is a great read about UNC center Jason Brown, whose brother was killed in Iraq just before last year's UNC-NC State game. Brown went ahead and played in the game, but as you might imagine, didn't play his best.

Now, Brown has developed into an NFL prospect and he credits his older brother with being his inspiration. It's a good read.

Dropping A Najeh

I'm about as pleased as could be to see that a new angle has been squeezed out of my favorite NFL training camp story. If you don't recall, a few years back, Green Bay Packers fullback Najeh Davenport was arrested after a woman woke up in her college dorm room to find Davenport squatting in her closet taking a dump. Think about that for a moment. She woke up to find a very large man crapping in her laundry basket!

I think it's the greatest story ever told. Anyway, she's suing him. I have no idea why she waited so long, but she did. Since it's a civil case, as my friend pope ttb xxx (of the Sports Shack) emailed me, "they'll only have prove that a preponderence of the dookie was his."

Do you think she burned her clothes? Did she ever sleep in that room again? What did he say to her when she found him? So many questions...

'04-'05 NCAA Hoops Analysis

This is a pretty interesting article breaking down the 2004-05 NCAA basketball season using four statistics: Pace Factor, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency and Points per Shot. The numbers are pretty interesting, but the analysis is a bit flawed.

The point of the article at the beginning is that the Big Ten was probably unfairly targetted as being bad last year. Well, then his numbers backed up that assertion, but he defended the Big Ten by pointing out that the Pac 10 was even worse. Fair enough.

One aspect he never mentioned is that by running these numbers by conference, you need to account for the fact that the teams play a lot of games against each other, so the Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies are not unrelated.

Anyway, it's a good read and as you might expect, it makes the ACC look pretty good.

Thanks once again to Yoni at the College Basketball Blog for digging this one up.

Good Herb

This is a great little recruiting story that makes NC State coach Herb Sendek sound like The Man. State is recruiting star point guard JP Prince. Evidently, Prince asked for a guarantee of 20 minutes per game in his freshman season. Sendek's reply? Good luck wherever you end up. Punk.

That story is courtesy of Thad Mumau. There is some other good info in the article, including some praise (and a nice-sounding recruit) for Wake coach Skip Prosser.

Thanks to Yoni for the link.

ACC Review - Week 5

Wake Forest at NC State - Once again, I was a bit off in my prediction for an NC State game. I was right in that they won, but I thought it would be easier. This team is just difficult to figure out. I guess the same could be said of Wake Forest, a team that seems to be capable of playing everyone close. Maybe I should learn my lesson and assume that every game involving either Wake or State will be close.

While this game was certainly much closer than State or its fans wanted (or expected), it really was a pretty good win. Wake came in and smacked them in the mouth, rolling to a 14-0 lead while running the ball down State's throat. The Wolfpack maintained composure though, tightened up their defense in the second half and came out with the overtime win. NC State is not a team that's going to blow out too many teams, so it's important that they learn to win the close ones. So far this year, they've done a good job with that.

For Wake, I think they played a great game. They had every opportunity to win and that's all you can really ask for in a road game against a good team. The one really curious thing to me was that coach Grobe pulled QB Cory Randolph for freshman Ben Mauk. Mauk played well, leading the Deacs to two touchdowns, but I question why he was in the game at all. Randolph has played very well this season, maybe the best QB in the ACC so far, so I don't understand the quick hook. Now, they have a bit of a quarterback controversy and that could spell doom for a team with little margin for error.

West Virginia at Virginia Tech - Hey, I got this upset right! And I'm pretty glad of it to. The Mountaineers needed to lose. Don't get me wrong - I have nothing against West Virginia. My beef is with the idiot poll voters who put them in the top ten to begin with. Do you know why they were ranked so high? It had little to do with their 4-0 start. No, they were ranked so high because a bunch of overthinking analysts had looked at their easy schedule and guessed that they might go undefeated and play for the national championship. So, because their schedule was easy and they might win all of their games, the voters went ahead and ranked them high now, even though they had yet to earn anything. Ridiculous. They had to lose.

It was fitting that Virginia Tech was the team to knock them out, because the Mountaineers did the same thing to a similarly overrated Tech team last year. What goes around comes around.

North Carolina at Florida State - I think a pretty good barometer of the quality of North Carolina's football team is this - I checked on this game and saw that it was 31-16 and thought, "hey, Carolina's playing pretty well!" The next day, the articles in the newspaper said basically the same thing. At work on Monday, the Carolina fans said the same thing. So, this is what it's come to. Carolina is happy with losing by only three touchdowns to a not-what-they-used-to-be Florida State team.

For Florida State, it was good and bad. Wyatt Sexton played fairly well, which is good. What's not so good, is that they should have scored more points against the Heels. Don't misunderstand, I think 38 points and a three touchdown win is fine. It's just that if FSU is really as good as their ranking indicates, they need a more explosive offense. Carolina's defense is bad. William & Mary scored 38 points on the Heels. Maybe FSU is just being conservative, but that has never been their style, so I think it's more likely that they just don't have a great offense this year. Teams can win without great offense of course, but that's not the way FSU plays. They aren't Ohio State. I have a feeling that this will hurt them at some point later this year.

The Citadel at Duke - Duke won. Yay! Now, they have to get back to playing real football schools. I hope they had their fun.

Miami at Georgia Tech - In my preview, I pointed to two issues for Miami in this game - would Miami be disinterested and how well would Brock Berlin play? The answers to both of those questions bode well for the Hurricanes. While they didn't light up the scoreboard, their defense was just as dominant as it has been all year, allowing the Yellow Jackets only three points. Berlin also played well, despite losing some series (as was the pregame plan) to his backup. If he can stay steady and the defense can stay focused, this team could be growing into a legitimate national title contender. Like Florida State though, I wonder if they have the offense to match their mighty D.

For Georgia Tech, I'm more than a bit concerned about Reggie Ball, yet another returning QB who's having troubles. He threw three picks for the second game in a row. The Jackets don't have the luxury of having enough all-around talent to be able to withstand sub-par quarterback play. Ball has the ability to be one of the more dangerous double threats in the country. Instead, he's looking more like a threat to his own team.

Joe Must Go - Part II

A while back I linked to a good article by the SportsProf on the sad state of Penn State football. The big problem of course is that coaching legend Joe Paterno no longer seems able to produce a winning team and he doesn't realize it. Lots of people have come here searching on info about JoePa, so this is obviously a popular (and sensitive) subject.

Well, the SportsProf has put up a Part II. As always, it's well thought-out and well-written. One of his main points is that as a coach, Paterno always expected his players to put the team first and not think as much about themselves. If they weren't quite good enough to start, then they should accept their role and do the best they can without complaining. The irony is that Paterno isn't doing that now with himself. He is no longer the best coach for Penn State, but he refuses to admit it.

I really hope it doesn't end badly. Coach Paterno has earned an honorable and graceful exit.

Pure

It's pretty obvious from this site that I like to watch, talk and write about sports. If I didn't, you wouldn't be here. But I also like to play sports. In fact, in almost all cases, I'd rather play than watch. There are many reasons, all the standard ones, why I love to play sports - competition, exercise, winning, teammates, improving, etc. There is one more motivator though that you hear much less about. I don't think people talk about it as much, because it's something that's rare, fleeting and unplanned. These are those special moments where everything comes together just right so that you perform flawlessly without even thinking about what you are doing. I'm not talking about a great game or season, but just one play where your body does exactly as it should while your mind focuses only on the goal of the movement, not the movement itself.

Every sport has these moments. Some sports naturally produce more, sports like tennis or golf that are a constant repetition of similar moments. In other sports, they are much more rare, maybe happening only a few times in a career.

In golf, a pure moment is one of those rare (for me) drives or fairway irons where you don't even feel the club hit the ball. The ball rises in a majestic arc, flying down the fairway perfectly straight, as if you'd shot it out of a bow. These are the shots that make you want to come back and play again, forgetting those half dozen chili dips and three putts.

For runners, these are the moments where you no longer feel your legs - no fatigue, no impact. You are floating above the earth, not thinking about your feet, but only about your speed and direction. You change speed as easily and effortlessly as if you were pressing the accelerator in a Ferrari.

In basketball, I occasionally have these moments when I'm curling up from the baseline, maybe to catch a pass at the free throw line. As I catch the ball, I simultaneously turn, set my feet, jump, align and shoot. As soon as I release the ball, I know it's in. I swear I can feel the ball on its arc, like I'm floating along with it the whole way to the rim. My follow through is me just softly dunking the ball through the rim. As soon as the play ends, the feeling goes away, although I can feel the energy for a while afterward, an extra jolt of adrenaline.

The reason I'm bringing all of this up is that I had just such a moment this past weekend playing soccer. Soccer is a difficult sport for this sort of thing, because for a play to be significant, it has to be a goal or at least a great shot and those things are rare. I don't score goals like I used to, so I can't remember the last time I had a pure soccer moment.

In this game, I had just come in the game as a forward. The opposing team hit a bad goal kick right to me, about 35 yards out and right in the center of the field. I knocked the ball down with my first touch and my brain immediately screamed SHOOT! That's always my brain's first reaction, trained after years of being a striker in youth soccer. Well, like I said, I don't score goals like I used to, so my older, wiser conscience stepped in and suggested we consider the alternatives. There were two defenders in front of me, about 20 yards away and another to my right and a bit in front of me. My other forward was up and to my left, near one of the other defenders. The rest of my teammates were behind me. As I stepped to the ball, I realized that a dribble would put me in a situation where all three defenders would likely converge on me at the same time. A pass might work, but he really wasn't in a better position than I was. No, my instincts were right; the best play really was a shot. So, I hit it. I hadn't trapped the ball dead off the hard goal kick, so it was still bouncing a few inches off the ground. As soon as I hit it, I knew. I had hit it perfectly. I barely even felt the impact; I had struck it right in the sweet spot - it wasn't going to swerve in any direction and it wasn't going to rise, as most of my old man kicks do now. The only chance for failure was the goalkeeper, but I looked up to see him several yards out in the middle of the box. He hadn't reacted immediately, so he now had no chance as the ball rocketed by him into the top of the goal - a beautiful 25 yard strike.

Now, don't think I'm bragging here. I'm fully aware of meager worth of bragging about goals in men's C league soccer - one of seven goals in this game mind you - a game my team lost. No, what really struck me about it was just the feeling of hitting that ball so perfectly. I haven't had that feeling on a soccer field in a long time and it felt great. I went to bed a few nights in a row still seeing that shot in my mind. If I knew I could feel that even once a season, I'd play forever.

That's what these moments of purity are. They are not our motivation for playing. You don't go out to play because of these rare events. But they are why you play again.

ACC Preview - Week 5

Since Clemson doesn't play a game this week, I'm going to just squeeze this paragraph in here at the top. I didn't want to skip making a few comments about the incredible performance last week by their return man Justin Miller. As you probably know (if you didn't know, you wouldn't be reading this), Miller returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against Florida State and totaled 282 return yards. 282 return yards! That's one incredible performance, and not surprisingly, an NCAA record. Miller has no rushing or receiving yards this year, but still leads the ACC in all purpose yardage with 137.2 yards per game.

And now on to teams who are actually playing this week.

Wake Forest at NC State - There are only two intra-conference games this week of interest, and this is the better of the two. Wake is one of those teams that can beat anyone, but could probably lose to anyone too. They aren't that talented, but they use what they have very effectively. Let me assure you, no one wants to face this team because they could rush for 300 yards on you. Well, unless "you" means NC State.

NC State proved last weekend that they have a defense to be feared. All that recruiting and scheming that Chuck Amato has been doing to try to build FSU-North is starting to pay off. The Wolfpack defense looks positively Seminolish (let's see what the ole spell checker thinks of that one). They are fast and aggressive and try to dictate to the offense what it can and can't do. Usually, a defense reacts to the offense and tries to stop them. Not with this State team. Opposing offenses have to try to stop State's defense. That's quite an advantage.

On the offensive side of the ball, State's been pretty mediocre so far, despite having a number of game breakers in the skill positions. State is even talking about how they want to be more conservative this year on offense. What's that tell me? It tells me that they might just try to change that this week and open things up a bit on Wake's relatively soft defense.

Wake has the kind of offense that can make a too-aggressive defense look bad. They use misdirection, run reverses and try everything but the old hidden ball trick. Commit too early and you might find yourself watching the play go the other way. That said, those tricks aren't quite as effective against a defense with the speed to run them down. State has that speed.

I think State avenges last year's whipping up in Winston-Salem and takes Wake by a couple of scores.

West Virginia at Virginia Tech - And now here's the best inter-conference game of the week. This is a nice, old rivalry of schools that don't like each other - sort of a Hatfields vs. McCoys thing in more way than one.

Two weeks ago, the overrated Mountaineers were extremely lucky to get out of their own stadium with a victory against Maryland. This week, they won't be so lucky. The Hokies are as good as the Terrapins and they have this one in their house. They'll cherish having a top ten team come by for a little butt-kicking. It's not so much that the Hokies are that much better than the Mountaineers. They aren't. It's just that West Virginia is not good enough to go undefeated and this is their hardest game left. Virginia Tech knows that they can pop a cap (a black powder cap) in the Mountaineers dream season, and they will.

North Carolina at Florida State - Florida State is still trying to get their offense clicking this season. I can't think of any better recipe for offensive headaches than the Tar Heels defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Noles go for 60 in this one. Afterwards, Bobby Bowden will declare that the starting quarterback job is Wyatt Sexton's even after Chris Rix returns from his ankle injury. Bobby's old, but he's not really old school, so I don't think he's going to buy into that you-can't-lose-your-starting-job-while-injured theory. Granted, having a good game against Carolina shouldn't really prove that Sexton is the man. It's sort of like scoring with a Hilton sister. It's not that difficult, but it's pretty fun anyway.

The Citadel at Duke - I did some pretty detailed analysis of The Citadel's recent offensive and defensive trends and I think that when you look at how they .... ah, who am I kidding? I know nothing about the Bulldogs except that you don't want to cross The Ten.

Game ball to whoever it is in Duke's athletic department who scheduled this one. Every team needs a gimme game or two per season, and let's face it, that's not an easy task for Duke.

Miami at Georgia Tech - This is the other conference game that has some interest. Some. By all accounts, this one should be pretty easy for Miami, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's close. The Yellow Jackets seem to always play good teams tough at home. I would have considered picking this for an upset except for what happened up in Chapel Hill two weeks ago. Now, I mentioned earlier that I thought that game was a anomaly game - Georgia Tech isn't that bad and UNC (clearly) isn't that good. But still. You don't lose to Carolina by three touchdowns and then beat Miami. Doesn't happen.

So, one of two things will happen. Miami will appear disinterested, since this is third in a series of ho-hum games for them until they get Louisville and NC State in consecutive games, or Miami will come out with their speed and aggression and blow this one open early. It really could go either way. Georgia Tech is just too young and inconsistent to be able to do anything with the Hurricanes if Miami is serious.

Keep an eye on Brock Berlin in this game. This is Miami's fourth game and he hasn't really put it together yet. If he can't do it this week, you have to think that he's not going to this year. That's a pretty serious weakness in an otherwise championship-caliber team. A bad quarterback is the kind of flaw that will eventually catch up to you over the course of a season even if the rest of the team is sensational.

"This Is MJ"

This is one bizarre, incredible story. A high school golf coach happened upon Michael Jordan playing golf and asked for some autographs. Instead, he ended up on a three day golf vacation with Jordan a few of his buddies. You know, the usual guys - Ahmad Rashad, Lawrence Taylor, Chris Chelios, Mario Lemieux, Kid Rock and others.

Sound too far-fetched to be true? It may be, but it's a fun tale anyway. Read all about it here.