Dave Sez

NBA All-Ugly Team

All-Ugly teams are always fun. It's just a fact. There's something about pointing out the particularly gruesome among a group of millionaire athletes.

This list is particularly funny.

BTW, if there is an ACC All-Ugly team (and by God, I'm gonna make one some day), Johnny Rhodes has to be the captain.

Tobacco Road Hegemony

Barry Jacobs has a great table up at the DBR listing Duke and Carolina's Final Four appearances. It really is remarkable to see it displayed like that. In the past 20 years, or since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, there have been only four years that neither team made the Final Four. The longest span without either team was two years - 2002 and 2003.

And Maryland won the title in 2002.

Rumor Mongering

Since I'm not a responsible member of any sort of media institution, I have the ability - nay, the obligation - to spread rumors.

An intrepid reader (and power-blogger himself) sent me two juicy rumors last night. I figured I'd share them, because that's what the Internets are for, right?

The first is the highly improbably rumor that Herb Sendek had agreed in principal to walk away from NC State at the end of the season. After advancing to the Sweet Sixteen however, he had a change of heart and decided to stay. I can't see Herbie The Love Buddha making such a deal, but I love the idea of Lee Fowler thinking he had things under control and then having the tables turned on him. He would have been the big strong AD, letting a coach go and making all the fans happy. And then the coach reversed on him, giving him no choice but to acquiesce. There's no way Fowler could fire Sendek after advancing to the second week of the tourney!

The other rumor is one that actually has some legs, but I haven't yet seen any confirmation. This one is that promising Indiana freshman Patrick Ewing Jr. is set to transfer. The rumor goes on to suppose that he wants to follow in his father's footsteps at Georgetown, playing for John Thompson's son. Does the Ewing Theory run in the family? If so, look for a banner year in Hoosierland.

Lastly is the rumor that actually may be fact. Coaching searches are so full of twists and turns and misinformation though, that really anything you hear before an official press conference can be considered at best a half-fact. In this case, the news is that Kentucky coach Tubby Smith has declared that he is going nowhere. According to that espn.com link (written by Andy Katz), Rick Barnes has made a similar decision, meaning Virginia Athletic Director Craig Littlepage has some more shopping to do.

Any other juicy stories out there that any birdies want to whisper in my ear?

Weekend Update

Yeah, the weekend games are long over now and have been rehashed to death by everyone with a keyboard ... but I'm gonna have a quick go at them too. Better late than never, right?

First of all, I think I'll point out the obvious - that was a quality collection of regional finals! Incredible. That was the best group I can ever remember watching. If there's been a better set ever, I haven't heard about it.

In the first game on Saturday, West Virginia did their best Villanova ('85 edition) impersonation, but without the cocaine (I'm guessing this is more of an OxyContin group, ya know?). Actually, the Mountaineers were shooting way more often and from farther out than those Wildcats did. With no shot clock or three-point line in those days, Nova attempted just ten shots in the second half (making nine) and most were from close in. In the first half alone, WVU hit 10 of 14 three pointers. That's nuts!

The thing is, big leads can do something funny to an underdog's psyche. When a favorite goes up big early, they tend to roll, as both teams just assume it's the natural order of things. When the two teams are fairly evenly matched or if the hot team is the underdog, things are different. The hot team starts getting cautious, worried that they are gong to lose their big lead. Meanwhile, the favorite gets mad, insulted even, and starts playing harder. When one team is cautious and the other is aggressive, you know what happens. The lead dwindles and dwindles and now the early leader starts playing even worse, because failure is on their minds. They don't want to be a team that blows a huge lead.

So, that's pretty much what happened here. Louisville maintained their composure and nipped and nibbled at the lead until it was gone. The Neers never really went away - I was very impressed with their play all tournament - but they just weren't able to stop the Cardinals when it counted.

Who would have thought that a 20-point comeback game that went to overtime wouldn't be the best game of the day? Arizona and Illinois put on an even better show. The two teams are each among the most talented teams in the nation and for most of the game put on a show that matched their talent. Illinois fans might dispute that, saying that they were a bit ratty until the end, but man, what an ending.

Illinois' comeback from 15 points down with only four minutes left will go down in NCAA lore. It may not quite match that great Duke-Kentucky regional final, but it was close. All year, I've been impressed with the Illini's mental toughness. They are usually more talented than their opponents, but they don't let that physical advantage make them lazy. They play hard and smart. The end of that game was a perfect example. When they needed to make plays, they did. On the flip side, Arizona, a team that has underachieved most of the year, fell apart at the end. That last play when they had the ball down one in overtime and never really got a look was emblematic of their struggles all year.

So, on Saturday we got two huge comebacks and two overtime games. We also got the better team winning in each case, making a solid first half of the Final Four (and matching my pool picks, I might humbly add. OK, maybe not humbly.)

For the Sunday games, I'll start with the second one and do the Carolina game last. Michigan State's win over Kentucky was possibly the best game of the weekend. There was no big comeback, but you had two excellent teams fighting back and forth the whole game. While it appeared to me that the Spartans were the better team, it was only slightly so. Neither team was able to establish a clear advantage over the other. They banged inside, they attacked from outside, they shot jumpers, they pressed, they brought swarms off the bench - each team did everything they could. It was everything you'd want a regional final (hell, a national final) to be.

And then it all came down to one last prayer. That shot by Sparks was amazing for all the elements it contained. First, you had a guy who had just earlier missed a critical free throw that could have cost his team the game. You had the clock running down to zero. You had contact on the shot that easily could have been whistled for a foul. You had the ball hitting the rim, the backboard, the rim, and then the rim again, before dying in the bucket long after the buzzer - it was like one of those shots you see in a movie where they show the ball in slow motion along with crowd shots, views of the coaches screaming and the players' hopeful gazes. And then you had his feet. I don't think I've ever seen a foot so close to the line. At first, my opinion was that his toe was barely on the line, but that since it wasn't conclusive, the refs should give him the three. But they waited. And waited. They looked at it again and again. I can't imagine a ref having the stones at that point to overrule the call and say it was a two, ending Kentucky's season (the man would have had to have his death threats delivered by tractor trailer), but obviously the refs were considering exactly that. Finally, CBS did a great job of blowing up the image, giving us a very clear view that had not stepped on the line. Overtime.

In the overtime, it seemed like maybe Kentucky was spent. They had poured out all their passion on that one last play and the long, wrenching decision that followed. They just couldn't match Michigan State's intensity.

Which brings me to the Carolina game. Close as it was throughout, it was a relative blowout compared to the other three games. Wisconsin fought admirably, but just could never quite compensate for the Tar Heels' talent advantage. Like in the Villanova game two nights earlier though, one or two shots going the other way could have ended the Heels' season.

Overall, I liked the Heels' effort against the Badgers much more than what they showed against Nova. Sean May was unstoppable, turning in the best performance I've seen in the tournament. He seemed determined to personally carry the team to the Final Four. Raymond Felton and Rashad (don't call me Raymond, Vern Lundquist) McCants also played much better, and that was the difference. When those three were on the court, Wisconsin couldn't stop them.

But that's the thing. Those three weren't always on the court. Specifically, Felton wasn't always there. Roy Williams took Felton out with just a few minutes left in the first half because Felton had two fouls. When he sat, UNC had an 11 point lead. At the half, the game was tied. Later in the second half, Felton sprained his ankle during a play. The Badgers scored on that possession and then again on the next (and maybe a couple more) after he sat to attend to his ankle.

Basically, when Felton wasn't playing, Wisconsin killed the Heels. The UNC offense was not as sharp, but the real problem was on the defensive end. Melvin Scott couldn't keep Terri Schiavo from taking the ball to the hole. He was beaten off the dribble time and again, leading to easy layups.

The same thing had happened to the Heels in the Villanova game. After Felton fouled out, they couldn't keep the Wildcats from scoring. After the game, all the newspaper articles raved about how Scott didn't turn the ball over in his few minutes at the helm (talk about damning with faint praise), but they failed to notice that he played defense like that old guy at the gym who just wants to shoot.

And that's why I'm not optimistic about Carolina's chances this weekend. Michigan State may not have the best point guard in the world, but they have a good, aggressive offense and if Felton isn't on the floor, they will kill the Heels. UNC has a single point of failure and everyone in the country has seen it now. Don't think that Tom Izzo (and maybe even Rick Pitino and Bruce Weber) isn't working on a plan to attack Felton and get him in foul trouble. If they can scare Ole Roy into sitting Felton for a while or foul him out, the Heels will lose. As good as Wisconsin was (and they were good. If Virginia is really shopping for coaches from whatever school they want, they should add Bo Ryan to their wish list.), Michigan State is better. They play a similar style, but with mostly better players.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see the Heels losing on Saturday (don't tell my wife).

And now for the conference performance update.

Obviously the big story is the outstanding late play by the Big Ten. They've now passed the ACC for winning percentage in the NCAA tournament and maintained their advantage for the whole postseason. There are still some games to be played that could change that, but I expect the Big Ten to keep their lead. I think Illinois is the best team left and Michigan State might well be the next best.

Postseason conference performance through 3/28/2005:

Gray Friday

Man, what a great long weekend of basketball! We had it all - upsets, heartbreakers, buzzer-beaters, great individual performances, comebacks, etc. Basically, last weekend served as an example of everything that is great about college basketball.

The thing is, there was so much goodness, that I couldn't find time to write about it. I'll try to catch up now.

Gray Friday
Back before last weekend, I wrote about the doom I felt for the Sunday's slate of four ACC games. I was genuinely worried that one or no ACC teams would survive. I was pleasantly surprised when three made it through.

Then came Friday.

The situation was pretty similar - all three Triangle teams playing in one night. One team, NC State, was a bit of an underdog and the other two were wobbly favorites. I said then that I expected State to lose and I was very concerned about Duke. I figured that the Heels would win, but I had a gnawing feeling that they were due for a letdown.

I was pretty much right all around.

State built a nice lead in the first half of their game against Wisconsin, but it never felt safe. The Badgers looked like the better team, but State was just hot for a while. Once the shots stopped falling, the Pack was in trouble. Wisconsin is such a tough team, both physically and mentally, and they wear you down. One thing this State team has proven over the last few years is that they are not mentally tough. Sure, they have great stretches that sometimes last for multiple games, but bad play is always just around the corner. When the Badgers got hot and seized control in the second half, it seemed like the Wolfpack had no answer. It was a tough end to a mixed-bag of a season. I'm sure Pack fans are disappointed, but a loss in the Sweet Sixteen really seems about right for that squad.

The Duke game also went exactly like I feared. I wrote in the Sports Shack that I had concerns about the way Duke had been playing. They looked tired late in the season, even while they were winning the ACC Tournament. Lee Melchionni's shot turned back into a pumpkin a few weeks ago, leaving the Blue Devils with only three scoring options. Without another outside shooter, teams could focus on Redick and have one guy always ready to help, while pestering Ewing (who isn't a great ballhandler and can be rattled) and collapsing on Williams. That's pretty much exactly what Michigan State did.

Early in the game, it was obvious that the Spartans' strategy was to attack Shelden, using their size and depth to wear him down. He looked great for a while, doing a very nice Emeka Okafor impersonation, but eventually playing 1 on 3 got to him. Meanwhile Redick couldn't get free, leaving Ewing to try to do it all himself. That's too much to ask against a good, well-coached team like Michigan State.

One side story about this game was the budding rivalry between coaches Krzyzewski and Izzo. With the win, Tom Izzo exactly matched Coach K's NCAA Tournament winning percentage. It's a great accomplishment, but a tough one to hold onto. For one thing, K has three times as many wins (66), meaning Izzo (22) needs to maintain his current pace for twice as long as he's already coached. Think about that - for every great year Izzo's had, he'll need two more just like it! Also, due to the nature of the tournament, the Spartans need to win the whole thing to maintain his lead. If he loses any game this year, his percentage will dip back below Krzyzewski. Bet you won't read that anywhere else.

Friday was going poorly. Two games, two ACC losses - both to Big Ten schools. Then the Carolina game started and things got even worse. The Heels came out cold and uninspired and quickly found themselves down by double figures. Villanova was playing hard and loose and was really taking it to Carolina.

Not one player, other than maybe Marvin Williams, had a good game for UNC. Sean May scored 12 of their first 14 points, but ended the game with 14. Raymond Felton was often out of control and never seemed to grab control of the game like he usually does. Rashad McCants had a good scoring game, but took a lot of bad shots and often looked like he didn't really want to be there. I don't think Jawad Williams even made the trip to Syracuse.

The Heels slowly chipped away at the lead over the course of the game and eventually Carolina's size and talent advantage won out over the pesky Wildcats. One or two shots here and there in the last couple of minutes could have changed the overall outcome though. Obviously, there was one huge call too. Perhaps you've heard mention of it? For the record, I thought the traveling call on Allan Ray was absolute crap. He didn't take three steps (although it did look a little funky) and a ref has no business making a call at that point unless he's absolutely sure of it. One thing about it though - they showed the replay a zillion times and you'll notice that Ray didn't travel and he also wasn't fouled. So, if we're correcting the call, let's just give him the two points, not three as many critics seem to want. If the refs hadn't screwed the call, Carolina would have had the ball and a one-point lead with 12 seconds left. Certainly that would have given Villanova a better chance than being down 3, but they were by no means in position yet to win.

With Carolina dodging a bullet, we avoided a reprise of the fabled Black Sunday - a Black Friday. Instead it was just Gray Friday - a tough night when the ACC was fed some cold revenge by the Big Ten but still managed to keep the conference alive for one more game.

I'll cover the weekend games in a later entry, along with the updated conference standings.

Conference Performance Update

So long Big 12. It was nice playing with you, but I believe you need to run along home now. You have no teams left in the Big Dance (or the little one either).

There have only been four NCAA games since my last update, but there have been a handful of NIT games on their weird schedule. Bottom line - the ACC still leads in NCAA performance, but has been passed by the Big 10 in overall postseason winning percentage. The weird thing? The ACC has bested the Midwestern boys in both NCAA and NIT performance, but the overall percentages favor the Big 10. Odd, huh?

Of course this will all be moot in about eight hours. There are two ACC-Big 10 matchups tonight, along with ACC-Big East and SEC-Whatever Conference Utah Is In tilts. Should be lot of fun!

Link Overload

With three area teams playing on the same day in the NCAA Tournament, it's a bit pointless to try to point out links where you can read about the game. It's kind of like pointing out a fat person at Ryans - they're everywhere so why single any out?

Instead of surfing all over for interesting links, I'll just send you to the News & Observer. As the primary newspaper (I'm discounting the Durham Herald-Sun) for all three teams, you'd expect they would put together some pretty good stories. You'd be right. The N&O did a fine job producing
this series of stories on every ACC game tonight.

As for my picks, I'm going with UNC, Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke. I'm not comfortable with either of those last two. I think NC State could certainly win, but I'm just impressed with the way Wisconsin has played the last couple of years. They look really well coached and just don't beat themselves.

The Michigan State-Duke game smells a bit like an upset to me for reasons I can't fully explain. It's just a gut feeling. I hope my gut is wrong.

I kind of hope I'm wrong about the Wildcats too, so that UVA can move ahead with their pursuit of Tubby Smith. Wouldn't that be something if they could land him? What a coup for them and the ACC that would be.

NBA Blog

Sorry for the NBA post on a day when all three Triangle ACC teams play in the Sweet Sixteen, but this is too good to pass on. NBA scrub Paul Shirley (never heard of him) has a little blog over on NBA.com. Now, not too many NBA players would be capable of writing a grammatically correct sentence, much less an interesting one.

Shirley is surely (get it? Ha!) an exception.

Check this excerpt from his first entry:

The poker games started way back in the preseason. I think I had the idea while Casey Jacobson had the chips. I probably got to play in about six games (poker, not basketball) before I was sent packing, released just days into the regular season. The fact that I am here and available for poker games on the Phoenix Suns’ charter plane (along with being theoretically available to play in basketball games) is a little remarkable. All it took was my return from a two-month hiatus in Russia, a trade by the Suns that sent away Casey and two others, and the Suns’ subsequent need for a warm body to keep the bench from tipping toward the coaches. Without those events, I would be a lot less happy with my life right now. On the other hand, had all of this not happened, I would be $40 richer right now. But I think we can all agree that it was a small price to pay.

Read it for yourself here.

Pomeroy on Louisville v. Washington

Ken Pomeroy gives a nice, stat-laden preview/analysis of tonight's Louisville-Washington game.

I agree with him that this is the best game of the night, but Oklahoma State-Arizona is a damn close second.

Yesterday, Ken gave a nice preview of all eight games along with plenty o' links on the Illinois v. Bruce Pearl story (have I mentioned that one?).

ACC In The NCAAs

I had plans earlier this week to do some combing through Charlie Board's fantastic site along with the official ACC site to get some good, interesting stats about the ACC's performance in the NCAA tournament. Then, when I looked at the ACC's weekly release, I realized that they'd already done a great job! So, instead, I'll do just one table showing performance by the major conferences since 1985.

You hear all year long from various whiners about how the ACC gets too much media attention and love. The argument is that the other conferences get screwed because all the national media outlets are in infatuated with and blinded by the ACC. If that were completely true, you'd expect that bias to result in extra bids for ACC teams. Bids are one are where subjective measures come in to play. If everyone loves the ACC, it should have the most teams in the field, right? Well, it hasn't worked out that way. Since 1985, the ACC has had 102 bids, the same number as the Big East, but nine fewer than the Big Ten.

If you look at what ACC teams did once they were in the tournament, you'll see that if anything, the ACC is underrated. While the ACC has the same number of bids as the Big East and nine fewer than the Big Ten, the ACC placed 13 and 14 more teams in the Sweet Sixteen than those two conferences. That lead continues through every other round in the tournament. The ACC has seven more teams (or 54%) in the Final Four than the second place Big Ten.

Basically, it's a whitewash. The ACC wins every single round, some by a significant margin. Considering that there are still three teams alive this year, the disparity is likely to grow even greater.

Check it out fo yoself:

(The total numbers for the Big 8/12 only include years since 1997, when the league expanded to 12 teams)

Maryland Advances

Maryland obviously had a trying season. Everyone, including themselves, expected much better things than an NIT berth.

When a team fails like that, it's usually because of one of two reasons - either the players were overrated or the team just never meshed. In this case, I'd say it's mostly the later. A nearly identical team won the ACC tournament and won a game in the NCAA tournament last year.

So, while this season was a disaster, it's still somewhat salvagable. Often, when a team underperforms and isn't happy about being in the NIT, they lose to some up-and-coming school in the first round, ending their season with a whimper. That didn't happen for Maryland. They won their first game and then won again last night against Davidson.

The Terps are now in the NIT quarterfinals, one win away from a trip to Madison Square Garden. If they can put together two or three more victories, that might be the perfect stepping stone to get back on the pedestal the program has been on for the past decade. Playing in the NIT usually sucks, but winning the NIT is not too shabby, particularly for a team that seemed to get used to losing this year.

It Was Bound To Happen

Well, it's about time!

Finally, the unheralded J.J. Redick is getting some deserved attention. It seemed like this day would never come, but now it has, and the sun seems a little brighter, the flowers a little more colorful and the birds more sonorous.

Yes, J.J. Redick at long last has a fan site.

Thanks to the DBR for pointing out this gem.

The Century Club

I haven't linked much to the Mid-Majority website ("blog" just doesn't do it justice), largely because I just don't have the time to read it. It's a phenomenal site written by Kyle Whelliston about mid-major (duh) basketball programs. One of the guiding frameworks to the content of his site was Kyle's quest to attend 100 mid-major hoops games this season. He completed that quest last weekend with Vermont's loss to Michigan State. Kyle writes about that game (a little) and about the end of his road (a lot) in this great entry.

Like I said, the site is incredible. He's a great and prolific writer and not a bad web designer either. From his post it sounds like he's not sure what the future of his site is. To me, the obvious next step, and a great way to fund future efforts, is to compile all of his posts into a book. It would a Feinsteinian inside look at a full season at schools that don't normally get much national attention. If the book managed to incorporate much of the look and feel of the site, it would be an awesome accomplishment.

When I read (and just look at even) the Mid-Majority, I'm glaringly reminded of the difference between an amateur (myself) and a pro (Kyle). His effort and output shame me.

BTW, don't miss the great cartoon Kyle drew in honor of Julius Hodge. (another hat tip to Lorenzo Charles).

Update: The Sports Prof has a nice post about this as well.

State Started Snipping Celebration

Here's something I did not know. According to the USA Today (and we know they are never wrong), the tradition of cutting down the nets after a big victory began with Everett Case at NC State.

Hat tip to Lorenzo Charles (no, I don't think it's the real one) of the Sports Shack for the link.

Redick, Paul All-Americans

J.J. Redick and Chris Paul were each named to the first team AP All-America team.

Sean May was selected for the second team and Shelden Williams and Raymond Felton landed on the third team.

The selections mean that all five first team All-ACC performers were named as All-Americans.

Illinois' entire three-guard backcourt made the team, with Dee Brown and Luther Head on the second team and Deron Williams on the third.

Apparently, Jason Cain narrowly missed out in the voting.

Blood Feud

With all the focus locally on the three ACC teams and the possibility that NC State and UNC could meet for a trip to the Final Four, it's easy to gloss over the other upcoming NCAA games.

There are several interesting games - Texas Tech and Bobby Knight vs. West Virginia, Utah vs. Kentucky and Louisville vs. Washington - but none rival the Illinois vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee game.

What's that, you ask? UWM vs. Illinois? How in the world is that an interesting game?

It's all because of the UWM coach, Bruce Pearl.

He was involved in alleged recruiting violations by Illinois back in the late 80s and has never been forgiven by the Illini faithful. Pearl was an assistant coach at Iowa at the time and recorded a phone conversation with star recruit Deon Thomas in which Thomas admitted to being offered inducements by Illinois assistant coach Jimmy Collins.

I wrote about this story last summer, when Collins' name hit the wires (he had just signed a contract extension) and it reminded me of a story from college.

When I wrote that article, I had no idea it would attract as much attention as it has. It has been linked over a half dozen times by various Illinois, Iowa, University of Illinois-Chicago (where Collins now coaches) and UWM sites. The Illinois fans, blinded by hate and suspected reading comprehension, have accused me of being an Iowa fan and "Bruce Pearl apologist."

One such article popped up on Sunday. It's actually a pretty good review of the history of the case, at least from a biased Illinois perspective. From that article, you can link to several other articles to get an idea of what really happened, at least from what was reported publiclly.

To sumarize, Illinois fans think that Pearl induced Thomas to lie about being offered money and a car by Illinois. In fact, they say, it was Iowa who really offered Thomas money and a house. They also add that the conspiracy was joined by Notre Dame coach Digger Phelps and Indiana coach Bobby Knight who also made allegations against the Illini at that time. We all know that Phelps and Knight are longtime friends who would gladly conspire to smear Illinois.

Whatever really happened doesn't matter anymore. No one but Collins, Pearl and Thomas will ever know and their accounts don't match up, so you have to choose whom to believe. What is for sure is that Illinois fans have a hatred of Pearl and all that he has touched that borders on pathologic. There will be LOUD boos and cheers throughout this game and when Illinois smashes the Panthers, they'll feel a satisfaction that goes way beyond just earning a trip to the Elite Eight.

But if UWM should win .... well, there aren't any cliffs in Champaign-Urbana, but they should lock up the silos, because fans are going to be looking for something to jump off of.

It should be a lot of fun.

E-5 on A Rod?

I don't normally post about baseball, especially during basketball season, but this is too weird to pass up.

While watching the tournament this weekend (or maybe it was while watching SportsCenter) I saw an old Alex Rodriguez commercial. It's the one where his doorman throws him a ball while he's jogging and later a reporter asks him "So Alex, only one homerun today?" before he smiles and says "Tough town." It's an old commercial that they've brought back for baseball season. I can't even remember what it's for. Right Guard, maybe? (or is it for a lip gloss?)

Anyway, at the end of the commercial, there's a shot of a ballfield at night. There is a bank of stadium lights in the lower center of the screen. As is normal, several of the lights are out. The pattern of lights seems to clearly spell out E5.

Is this a coincidence? Was there a Red Sox fan involved in post-production who thought maybe he'd play a little prank? I don't know, but I think it's pretty damn funny.

If I can find a screenshot, I'll post it here. Let me know if you know where I can get one.

Update: I'm not the only one who's noticed. The Boston Dirt Dogs picked up on it last week. Scroll down a bit.

Sweet Revenge

When I first saw that four ACC teams would be playing on Sunday, I had a bad feeling. I had this ominous gnawing in my gut that things would go poorly and the ACC would lose three or four of those teams. That feeling grew even even stronger when Wake was bounced on Saturday night. I thought we were gonna see a reprise of Black Sunday.

Fortunately, that premonition turned out to be wrong. Nostradamus I'm not.

Things began looking good in the second half of the NC State game when the Pack turned into Dr. Jekyll and started carving up UConn. No team in the country has been more schizophrenic than State over past couple of seasons. When things are going poorly, their offense is dog ugly and they'll go 8, 10, 12 minutes without a field goal. Then things will suddenly snap, and they're Hickory High, picking, cutting and shooting with a purity that James Naismith never dreamed of. Fortunately, yesterday was a good day (and the State fans are happy).

The win over UConn was a great revenge game on several levels:

• For the conference, it was a perfect mirror of the Wake loss the night before. In that game, a team from the Big East, the ACC's fiercest rival, rose up to knock out a mighty ACC 2 seed. The next day, State turned things around, knocking out the Big East's 2 seed. UConn's loss left the Big East without a real Final Four contender, and probably ended their argument for the title of toughest conference in 2005.
• For the program, the win over UConn avenged the loss in 2002, when UConn knocked State and a young Julius Hodge out in the second round. That game was probably the toughest of Herb Sendek's tenure.
• For the team, the game exorcised the demons of last year's collapse against Vanderbilt. In that game, the Wolfpack blew a late eleven-point lead. Yesterday, State lost a late eleven point lead, but managed to recover in time to get a lead - the final lead - back.
• For Julius Hodge, the win was nice retribution for a slight he has never forgotten. Back in 2002 he lost out in the voting for ACC Freshman of the Year to Georgia Tech's Ed Nelson. Nelson was by no means a great player, but it was a weak year for conference frosh and he had the best numbers even though Hodge was the flashiest contender. Nelson transfered to UConn after that season and Hodge no doubt relished knocking in the game winner over him. To rub some salt in the wound, Nelson was called for a blocking violation on the play, giving Hodge one more point.
• For Sendek, the win was a sort of revenge over his critics, who are legion. Pack fans have long since moved past the phase where they are satisfied with just making the tournament. Making the Sweet Sixteen is different though. When you play on to the second week, it proves that you are a top program. Being among the final sixteen teams playing cements the fact that a team is top-25 material, which is what NC State fans think they should be. Very few programs have legitimate yearly Final Four aspirations, and State has never been one of those schools. So, making the Sweet Sixteen puts this team and program exactly where they should be. Pack fans have no room to complain until next season.

The one conference team to lose, Georgia Tech, lost poorly but really has little room to complain. They never lived up to their potential this season and rarely looked like a team that belonged in the Sweet Sixteen. The team they lost to is a legitimate Final Four contender (they are my pick). Yeah, the Jackets got whacked, but that's how it happens sometimes when you play a team like Louisville with their up-tempo pace.

Carolina moved on with ease with their second big win in a row. The Tar Heels were the only high seed to win by 20+ points in each game. Unfortunately, that means nothing at this point. What matters more for Carolina is that their most talented regional rivals have all lost. The numbers 2, 3 and 4 seeds have all lost, meaning the Heels need only win a four team tournament with Villanova, Wisconsin and NC State. You have to like their odds in that field.

Duke had a much tougher fight, but did what they needed to do. Late in the season, Lee Melchionni had become a critical third outside scorer for the Blue Devils, but he has just disappeared in the last few games. With Redick struggling yesterday, Duke had a dogfight. They were lucky to survive. For them to get out of their region, they are going to need one of the role players, Melchionni, Sean Dockery, DeMarcus Nelson or Shavlik Randolph, to step up and score 12+ points.

With the good day, the ACC expanded their lead over the other power conferences. The ACC is now 8-2 in the NCAA Tournament, with three teams advancing to the second week. Only the Big 10 has as many teams. With Duke playing Michigan State and NC State meeting Wisconsin, the Big Ten(Eleven) has their big chance to exact revenge for the butt-kicking they took earlier this season.

Postseason performance through 3/20/2005:

NCAA - Day 4

(note: I wrote most of this Sunday morning before games were played. I'll address today's games, including State's upset of UConn later.)

This is gonna be a quick update, so I won't have time to go into all the ways I'm disappointed in Wake Forest. Like I said all season, their defense just wasn't Final Four caliber. I was wrong. It wasn't Sweet Sixteen caliber. It was fitting that they gave up 111 points in the game that they lost. Yeah, it went to two overtimes, but that's only two minutes longer than NBA games and NBA games have 24-second shot clocks. Last night, one NBA team scored as many as 111 points in regulation.

West Virginia scored on seven of their last eight possessions in regulation. They scored on eight of ten possessions in the first overtime. The Mountaineers then scored (or missed two free throws) on ten of twelve possessions in the second overtime.

The Deacs deserved to lose.

The other games of note so far were the upsets of Kansas and Syracuse by Bucknell and Vermont. I gotta tell you, seeing Cuse lose in the first round was great. It was like meeting an old friend again after not seeing him for several years. If only Arizona had joined the reunion...

OK, enough commentary. Now some stats. Here is a basic table running down major conference performance so far in the NCAA Tournament. I added the NIT as well, to include all teams in the postseason, giving conferences more of a chance to display their depth.

Postseason performance through 3/19/2005:

Pomeroy on Georgia Tech

Ken Pomeroy does his usual excellent statistical analysis on Georgia Tech, focusing on the efficiency of Isma'il Muhammad.

He makes a point that I wondered about, that Muhammad's absence actually helped Tech during the ACC Tournament.

Pomeroy also points out that the numbers back up my contention that Jarrett Jack is the most valuable member of that team, not B.J. Elder.

NCAA Day 2

That was quite a fun first day, wasn't it? It wasn't chock full of upsets, but a couple double-digit teams (UWM and UAB) did advance. Even though the seeds say otherwise, I'd also consider Pacific's win over Pittsburgh, because anytime a team from a power conference loses to a team like Pacific, it's an upset in my book.

Day 2 should be even more fun for the local folks, because due to some odd scheduling, four of the five ACC teams play today. Duke and Carolina should both roll, although you may have noticed that neither of the #1 seeds yesterday won in blowout fashion. I have a hunch the Tar Heels and Blue Devils (read this article about the troubles of Delaware State's coach. Tough story) will be different.

The tougher games are for NC State and Georgia Tech. Both are in games I'd consider toss-ups. State plays just after noon and I'll be in a packed sports bar cheering them on against the cross-state Charlotte 49ers. Tech plays late tonight against an erratic George Washington team. When you get two schizophrenic teams like the Yellow Jackets and Colonials playing, you never really know what you're gonna get.

Some thoughts from yesterday's games:

Wake looked shaky, but that's not unusual or terribly worrisome. Many high seeds struggle in their first game and then go on to roll for the next couple of games. I do worry about Chris Paul though. As good as he is, he seems to have a problem with consistently exerting his will on games. He didn't really take over last night's game until the middle of the second half. The great point guards control games from start to finish. Think about Mateen Cleaves. He had half the talent of Paul, but he always dominated games from the opening tip. If he wanted a fast tempo, the game was fast. When he wanted to slow down, the game slowed down. Paul could learn from that.

By the way, I was impressed with Chattanooga's game. They played some tough defense. I admit that as Virginia fan, I'm watching these games like an offensive lineman at a buffet table. I'm keeping my eye out for tasty coaches who might be suited for the Cavaliers. I liked what I saw of John Shulman's team.

Speaking of potential Virginia targets, Rick Barnes is now available for interviews!

In the Sports Shack, someone asked me about UAB's coach and whether he'd fit in Charlottesville. While he's obviously doing a great job down there, making the Sweet Sixteen last year and spanking LSU last night, I don't think that 40 Minutes Of Hell style would work in the ACC. Sure, it might be effective for a half season or so, but once the ACC coaches and players got some time to learn it, they'd tear it up. Unless you have superior talent, which is very hard to have in the ACC, you can't run that constant pressing style against top teams. Pete Gillen learned that lesson the hard way. You'll notice that Gary Williams doesn't press too much anymore either.

I think Washington fans should be concerned that their team raced out to a 13-0 lead over 16 seed Montana - and then won by 11. Do the math (I hate that expression, but it actually makes sense here).

Congrats to Bobby Knight and Bob Huggins for actually winning first round games this year. When's the last time they both won? I actually picked Cincinnati this year because I had no faith in Iowa winning without lover boy Pierre Pierce. I got the Texas Tech game wrong because I learned years ago to stop picking Knight's teams to win any games in the NCAAs. I guess playing the perennial underachieving UCLA did the trick for them.

Caulton Tudor has an article today on how the tournament is a coach's tournament. I'm not so sure I agree with him. Over a span of years, sure, but in one year, I think talent matters more. Tudor's own example is a good one for my argument - Tom Crean at Marquette. Sure, he took them to the Final Four and was everybody's favorite hot coach, but that team had Dwyane Wade, who is now one of the 20 best players in the NBA. What has Crean done since then, even though he still has Travis Diener and Steve Novak? Talent wins.

Like yesterday, I'll use the comments from this post as a running thread on the day's games. If you're watching the games, or just watching the scores online, drop in and write what you're thinking.

Classic Dean Smith Quote

Those of you who are relatively new to the ACC certainly know who Dean Smith is. He's the legendary coach from North Carolina, known not only for his Xs and Os, but for his gentlemanly manners and the love of his players.

What you may not remember though is that Smith was not just one of the best coaches ever, but he was one of the best ever at the back-handed compliment. Coach Smith loved to jab his rivals while pretending to compliment them. Take the quotes from this article about Mike Krzyzewski catching Dean Smith's NCAA win record.

"I didn't realize that," Smith said recently by phone from his office in the Dean E. Smith center, nine miles from Cameron Indoor Stadium and Coach K Court. "It isn't fair for John Wooden, Frank McGuire, Pete Newell and Henry Iba. Mike and I had it great, when more than one team from each conference got in. You used to have to win the conference tournament to get in."

Yes, in fairness to Smith — not to mention those championship coaches of an earlier era — in his first 14 years at North Carolina, ACC teams had to win the conference tournament to advance. When he made his first NCAA tournament in 1967, the field was 23 teams, nine of which had first-round byes. There were fewer games to play and tougher matchups sooner.

When Krzyzewski made his second NCAA tournament in 1985, almost 20 years later, the field was expanded to 64 teams.

"Mike certainly has done a great job in the tournament," said Smith, who has 11 Final Fours and two national championships to Krzyzewski's 10 Final Fours and three titles. "I thought he'd probably have had it a long time ago."

I thought he'd probably have had it a long time ago.

The man still has the touch!

Thanks to the ACC Basketblog for the find.

NCAA Day 1 - Open Thread

I've never done one of these, but today seems like a good time to give it a run. This way those of us stuck in an office today can post thoughts on the games going on.

Chat away.

Dan Bonner Is OK

Whew! I was worried for a while there. It turns out that Dan Bonner is OK. He's working one of the first round games today.

When Bonner wasn't working the local broadcasts of the ACC Tournament, I was concerned. I honestly thought that maybe Mike Hogewood had eaten him.

Featherston On The NCAA Tournament

I've become Al Featherston's marketing page!

He has yet another great article at the Duke Basketball Report. This one is on the NCAA Tournament and has some great anecdotes about beat reporters and covering the tournament.

He also has a section highlighting Coach K's success at Duke (well, he is writing for a Duke site).

My one beef is his bringing up that Virginia loss to NC State in the regional finals of 1983. It's still a sore spot.

Calm Before The Storm

Man, do I wish I were back in college. In those days, this week was always Spring Break and I could sit and watch basketball all day from Thursday through Sunday. I even remember being in Dayton Beach and sitting in my hotel room in front of the TV while everyone else was outside (of course that had nothing to do with a wicked sunburn and brutal hangover). Great times.

Life with a job and kids isn't all bad (well, the kids part isn't all bad), but it just doesn't give me hoops-watching time I crave. I'll have to do with long lunches at the sports bar and some good Internet scoreboards.

Anyway, enough with the wishful thinking. It's nearly time to play ball and I want to get a few thoughts out there before the games start. I don't have time to run through the whole bracket, so I'll focus on the ACC teams.

All year long, the ACC has been the Big Three and the Eight Dwarves. Just because NC State and Georgia Tech squeaked into the Dance, I don't think things have changed. Both State and Tech could lose in the first round. I very nearly picked the Jackets to get upset tonight, but decided not to (ACC pride and all). Instead, I have them bowing out to Louisville and State getting whacked by UConn. I wouldn't be shocked if neither gets that far though.

As for the Big Three of Wake Forest, North Carolina and Duke? I have my concerns with them as well. Maybe it's just that familiarity breeds contempt, but all three teams scare me. All three have Final Four talent, but I have a hunch that only one will make it.

I've said several times that I think Wake's defense is too porous to make a deep run, and I'm sticking with that. I have them losing in the regional finals to the Ville. I wouldn't be surprised to see them knocked out by Gonzaga a round earlier though.

With Carolina and Duke, I just feel that only one will make it. I couldn't decide which one that would be, so I picked both to make the Final Four in my bracket. I know I'll be wrong, but I decided to just play the odds.

All year, I've thought to myself that I'd pick UConn to make the Final Four. They just have so much talent, particularly up front. But when I was actually filling out my bracket I couldn't shake the notion that this team has failed to show heart and has underachieved all year. I couldn't put my trust in them. I sort of feel the same way about Kansas too. They shouldn't have had as many rough spots as they've had this year. Florida? Same thing as Kansas and UConn - Final Four talent and first round loss heart. So, the Heels got my nod in the Syracuse Regional (God, do I hate those region names!).

Syracuse is the trendy pick in the Austin region. They've got Hakim Warrick and Gerry McNamara, but I'm a bit wary of teams that muddle along and then get hot and win their conference tourney. Everyone gets excited about them and picks them for the Final Four, but they end up losing to Western Michigan in the second round. There's one team like that every year.

Another reason I feel that Cuse is in trouble is that they're playing Michigan State in the second round. The Spartans are being overlooked, but they are a tough team. Both the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings think they are better than the Orange.

So Syracuse is out and Kentucky and Oklahoma just aren't that great. Duke wins the region by default.

Those are my four regions - Illinois, Louisville, UNC and Duke. I have Illinois beating the Heels in the Finals. Sounds pretty decent, huh? Won't happen, of course, but it sure would be fun. The great thing about the NCAA tournament is that it'll be fun no matter what.

Dave Sez NCAA Pool

Update: Only a few more hours to sign up! We have 21 people in the pool now, which is a pretty nice contest. Lets see if we can get some more!

Want to impress your coworkers? Shame your friends? Score with the ladies (or gentlemen)?

Then you need to join my Dave Sez NCAA Pool. I set it up through Yahoo, because it's free and pretty easy to use.

Just head here and sign up. The Dave Sez group id is 60054 and the password is davesez.

No prizes other than bragging rights and frankly, it don't get no better than that. I'll also post info on the winners on my world-famous site, so you'll be able to live a few moments in the blinding spotlight of Internet fame.

Sign up!

Computer Picks

I decided to do a quick run through of the brackets using just a few computer ratings to pick teams. It turns out that whether you use Pomeroy, Sagarin or RPI, you get pretty similar results. Surprisingly, each of the computer ratings would pick only six or seven upsets (lower seed beating higher seed) in the whole tournament.

Sagarin has UNC, Illinois, Wake Forest and Duke in the Final Four with Illinois winning it all.

Pomeroy has the exact same Final Four and winner as Sagarin.

The RPI has Kansas, Illinois, Washington and Duke in the Final Four with Kansas (!!) winning it all. Outside of Kansas' surprising run, the RPI picks only two upsets in the whole tourney, which I guess isn't too surprising since that's the computer model they use for their seeding.

When you consider that Sagarin and Pomeroy pick only six and seven upsets, I wonder why the RPI is used at all. It seems to come to basically the same conclusions as the more sensible computer ratings. The main difference is Kansas, a team whose RPI the committee largely ignored.

Link-O-Rama

Like I did last week, I'm gonna cheat again today. This time of year there are just so many good links that I'm a bit overwhelmed. So instead of giving you what I think is a good list, I'm gonna go meta on yo ass. Check out the ACC Basketblog's links of the day.

After you finish that list, you can check out the Duke Basketball Report for a cornucopia of ACC and NCAA Tourney links.

And of course, Yoni is cranking out list after list as well (from a national perspective).

Champions Again

Before we move on to the college basketball feast that is the NCAA Tournament, I want to look back at the ACC Tournament. Ned Barnett of the News & Observer rightly points out that the timing of the tournament final, just a few hours before the NCAA brackets are revealed, makes it easy to overlook the champ. Well, not here. I couldn't be more excited about the Big Dance, but it can wait one more day.

I think I'll just do a quick rundown of each team and how they did and what it means for them now.

Starting at the top...

Duke - Congrats to the Blue Devils for winning their sixth title in seven years. Despite the claims of some, it's not a shock that they won. It's never a shock when Duke wins, but it was impressive nonetheless. What's particularly interesting is that Duke didn't really look great in any of the games. They never put Virginia away in round one. They trailed NC State at the half in the semis and they almost blew a late 13 point lead in the finals. Redick was spectacular on Saturday and Sunday, but on the flip side Melchionni turned back into a pumpkin.

It's really hard to know what to do with this team for my tourney picks. They don't seem to win with ease, but they do just keep on winning. I haven't convinced myself that they are a Final Four team yet, but I hate to pick against them. I'll have to think more about this.

For you Duke haters, this is pretty funny.

Georgia Tech - I think they have to be the happiest of all the teams. They played very well in all three games and finally looked like the team everyone thought they would be. You know what the key was? Not the return and reintegration of B.J. Elder, but the inspired play of Luke Schenscher. He played great, particularly against Carolina.

The Yellow Jackets don't need Big Red to score a ton or even rebound a ton, but they do need him active. When he's scoring a little here, rebounding a bit there and blocking a few shots, they are a completely different team. The difference is most noticeable on defense, where they've been lacking this year. Adding him in is like putting the keystone in stone bridge. It's just one rock, but when you place in there, the structure goes from a fragile hunk of stones to a sturdy arc that can last centuries. Notice that Tech nearly won the title without Elder doing much at all on the weekend.

I hope the big Aussie keeps up his good play in the tourney. If you remember, it was his play that made the difference for them last year as well. They won't go to the finals again (lightening doesn't strike twice), but they could make the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina - Not a great tourney for them. They nearly gagged to a surprisingly game Clemson team and then were taken out by the hot Jackets. McCants looked good, but for some reason May lost his focus. Maybe it's just too hard to keep up that intensity that he's had the last several weeks.

I said a while back that I wanted to see them in some close games to see their heart. They've proven the heart, but now they're in too many close games. Their talent will help them cruise to the second week, but they need to get sharper.

NC State - Yet another great tourney for Herb Sendek' Wolfpack. He's like an idiot savant. His teams are mediocre throughout the season and then catch fire in the ACC Tournament. It makes sense doesn't it? He's not much of a people person and has a pretty bland personality. Instead of being able to count toothpicks, he has an unnatural feel for ACC Tournament games. Time for Wapner.

For State fans, it was a conflicting turn of events. Of course they want their team to win, but there's no way that Sendek will be fired now. A Phyrric victory?

Wake Forest - It's hard to know what to say about them. Considering the stakes, drama and play of State, I'd say the loss doesn't mean much. It just means they get a little more rest before the NCAAs. I'm still not convinced they play enough defense to win four games though. Don't believe the hype.

Nice suit for Chris Paul though. Anyone wonder where he got the cash for a suit like that?

Clemson - They played some strong basketball at the end of the season. If Oliver Purnell can get some talent in there, it's looking like he has something going on. Clemson is a tough place to sustain success, but it they have some reason to be optimistic in Tigerland.

Virginia - A nice ending to Pete Gillen's Virginia career. His team fought for him at the end, which says a lot. I don't think any Virgina fans think ill of Gillen. He just can't cut it at this level.

Virginia Tech - That wasn't a terribly good way to end things, was it? While I didn't buy, many people seemed to think that they were still on the bubble. You'd like to see a team step up in that situation.

Speaking of Maryland...

Maryland - What is there to say? This team needs to be blown up. Maybe the Terps can buy some heart and attitude on eBay.

Miami - Like Virginia Tech, they were on the outside of the bubble and probably should have played better. Actually, to be fair, they didn't really play that poorly, but they didn't execute at the end. Like the Hokies though, the Canes are playing with house money at this point. There's no way for this season to be seen as anything but a success.

Florida State - Spring football is just around the corner!

Bubble Update

Maryland and Miami both blew their chances at an at-large bid yesterday. Miami was a bit of a long shot, but Maryland really only need to win one game to get in. They didn't and they deserve to be left out, even though some people still think they have a shot.

A brief rundown of projections:

Dance Card - Georgia Tech in. NC State (ten teams to leap), Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech all out.
Tony Mejia - GT in. State in if it wins today. Maryland, Miami and VT out.
Joe Lunardi - GT, MD and State (MD and State among last four in) all in. Miami, VT (among last four out) and sanity out.
ESPN.com - GT, MD, State and VT all maybes. Way to take stand, ESPN.
Yoni Cohen (when did he start writing for FoxSports?) - State, GT in with wins today. MD, Miami, VT out.
Stewart Mandel - State, GT in. MD, Miami, VT out.

Bottom line? The ACC still only has three bids wrapped up.

Georgia Tech will likely get in even with a loss today, but it's not a lock.

State is almost certainly in with a win today.

Maryland doesn't deserve it, but they could still get in if other bubble teams falter and no surprise teams get automatic bids.

Virginia Tech needs to win today and probably tomorrow too. In some projections, their only real shot is to win the ACC Tournament.

Miami is out.

Technically, Clemson and Virginia are still alive, but obviously they need to win the whole thing. If they do, stock up on dry goods, potable water and ammo because the End Days are near.

Final 2005 Prouty Ratings

I finally got the final Prouty ratings done for the 2005 season. I did some fancy cut'n and past'n to get stats from conference games only, which I think is the fairest way to compare performance. It was a bit of a pain, but I did it for you. You know why? Because I love you; that's why.

You may have noticed that the team I picked for first team All-ACC was exactly the same as the official team. I said at the time that those five guys were pretty much no-brainers for the honor. Well, lo-and-behold, those five are the top finishers in the Prouty ratings as well. That's a pretty good sign that the ratings are accurate. They should more-or-less match your subjective views.

Where they get a bit more interesting is in comparing the guys a bit lower. It's easy to pick out the best players in the conference, but it gets trickier when you are comparing guys who don't stand out quite as much. Who is more effective, Jamaal Levy or Jackie Manuel? What about Zabian Dowdell versus Sharrod Ford? That's where numbers like this come in. They can't be the final word of course, but they are a handy metric.

One thing you might notice right off is that the top ten players all come from the big three of Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest. That sounds a bit biased, but then those teams are loaded with talent and did finish three or more games ahead of every other team in the league. It makes sense that they had the best players.

Another stat that jumped out at me was Sean May at the top of the list. I've seen several sites pick him as their player of the year, but I argued that while he finished great, I didn't feel he was the best over the whole season. After looking at these numbers, I think I've changed my mind. His numbers are good-to-great across