Dave Sez

Expanded ACC Standings - 2/28/2006

It was a tough week for the ACC. Duke struggled against two weak teams, one a non-conference game, and the bubble teams all played like they didn't want the hassle of booking travel to the NCAAs. Virginia actually deserves credit for stepping up onto the bubble early in the week with a huge win over BC, but they slipped right back on the weekend in Clemson. Maryland continued their post-McCray slide (think maybe it's worth the money to pay someone to walk these chumps to class?) and FSU hurt themselves by dropping one in Blacksburg. The only team that clearly helped their position was Miami, but they only played once and are still a long shot.

But before you get too depressed and concede that the ACC will get only four teams in (and maybe only two good teams), consider this excellent Al Featherston article. If read through the whole thing (and you should), you'll come across this very interesting nugget - since the expansion to 64 teams, no BCS team with 20 wins by Selection Sunday has ever been left out of the tournament. Wow! I had never heard that before. Florida State is sitting at 17-8 with two regular season games remaining. Given how they played in Durham, it's conceivable that they could beat Duke at home, but failing that, they have a good chance to win in Miami. Given their seeding, they'll likely get a pretty weak team in their first ACC Tournament game and if they win, another chance for a win on that Friday. That's a lot of good opportunities to get three more wins. Yeah, it's Florida State and they aren't really known for stepping up and winning when they need to, but their chances are actually better than I thought.

Featherston also points out that, like last year, the bubble is pretty weak this year so some teams with what seems like lacking resumes are going to get in. Why not an ACC team (or two)?

But you didn't click on this to read my ramblings. You want pretty pictures and color and stuff. Here ya go!

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (27-1, 14-0)	prev	1	1	1	1	1	Absolute lock for a 1 seed
	cur	1	1	1	1	1
UNC (19-6, 10-4)	prev	18	12	20	19	17.25	Could sneak into a 3 seed or even higher with a big finish
	cur	12	9	14	13	12
NC State (21-7, 10-5)	prev	12	11	10	18	12.75	Could be anywhere from a 4 to a 6 seed, depending on their ACC Tourney
	cur	17	16	17	34	21
BC (22-6, 9-5)	prev	21	18	17	34	22.5	Same as NC State
	cur	25	19	18	35	24.25
FSU (17-8, 7-7)	prev	30	36	34	60	40	Sneaks in with a 12 seed (and angers talking heads)
	cur	35	39	39	65	44.5
Miami (15-12, 7-7)	prev	58	73	56	72	64.75	NIT
	cur	57	73	55	71	64
Virginia (14-11, 7-7)	prev	70	62	62	71	66.25	NIT
	cur	74	60	59	67	65
Maryland (16-11, 6-8)	prev	44	37	42	45	42	NIT (saving College Park from riots again)
	cur	54	43	47	51	48.75
Clemson (16-11, 5-9)	prev	72	62	66	66	66.5	NIT
	cur	65	56	64	72	64.25
VA Tech (14-13, 4-10)	prev	68	81	82	120	87.75	Team forgotten while fans wonder why Frank Beamer hired Mike O'Cain
	cur	67	80	77	116	85
GA Tech (11-15, 4-11)	prev	101	99	108	141	112.25	Getting ready for Thad Young's one year of college ball
	cur	94	90	106	137	106.75
Wake Forest (14-14, 2-12)	prev	92	92	99	105	97	Prosser can dust off his old copy of The Merchant of Venice
	cur	106	97	100	113	104

The Week That Was - 2/20 - 2/26/2006

02/21/06 Virginia 72, Boston College 58 - Charlottesville, VA
Maybe BC got a bit too lax after winning eight straight ACC games. They certainly didn't play like they respected Virginia in this one and they paid the price. The Cavs led from the opening bucket and looked impressive all the way.

This win produced a sudden surge in excitement in Charlottesville about Virginia's suddenly realistic NCAA Tournament chances. Unfortunately for the Cavs, the week had just begun ...

02/22/06 Duke 73, Georgia Tech 66 - Atlanta, Ga.
Is the pressure getting to Duke and J.J. Redick? They played tight in both games this week as the media pressure surrounding Redick's run at the ACC scoring record grew. Most people, including me, thought Redick would get the points he needed in this game, but he didn't and Duke almost took an L. Fortunately for them, Shelden Williams has been solid all season and kept them in this game.

02/22/06 Miami 70, Virginia Tech 59 - Coral Gables, Fla.
Too little, too late for the Hurricanes, but the win did stop a four-game losing streak.

02/22/06 Wake Forest 74, Clemson 68 (OT) - Winston-Salem, NC
I'm sure before the season Justin Gray envisioned himself hitting clutch threes to save the day for Wake Forest. I doubt he dreamed that those shots would be to force overtime at home against Clemson to help get the Deacs their second ACC win in late February.

02/22/06 North Carolina 95, NC State 71 - Raleigh, N.C.
Oof. I wrote last week that Carolina might well be the ACC's second best team. Of course, that implied that I thought they were better than both Boston College and NC State, the two teams above them in the standings. I think I was right.

I also wrote last week about the pressure on Herb Sendek to win this game. He's built State up in recent years and beaten back the howling wolves, but getting your ass kicked by the boys in light blue on your home court isn't the way to keep the critics away. Consider Herb's seat maybe not hot, but certainly warm.

02/22/06 Florida State 71, Maryland 60 - Tallahassee, Fla.
This was an official NCAA Tournament elimination game and congrats to the Terrapins who won elimination. It's not easy feat to miss out on the NCAA Tournament two years in a row with a roster full of high school all-Americans, but the Terps are in the process of doing it. Could they right the ship in their next game in Chapel Hill? (snicker)

02/25/06 Georgia Tech 76, Wake Forest 61 - Atlanta, GA
Wheee! It's hard to remember, but this was a big game last year!

02/25/06 Clemson 90, Virginia 64 - Clemson, SC
Ouch. Double ouch. That's what you get when you are a mediocre, but over-achieving team and you get too full of yourself. Virginia may have gotten too excited about their outside NCAA chances and forgotten that they still need to win several games to realize that possibility. Nothing says NIT like a 26-point loss to Clemson in February.

02/25/06 Duke 74, Temple 66 - Philadelphia, PA
Like I said, something's wrong with Duke. Maybe it was the attention on Redick. Maybe it's just the late-season doldrums. Or maybe it's fatigue from being at or near #1 all season while not using the bench very much. I suspect the Devils will play better this week, but Duke fans should be at least mildly concerned.

Congrats to J.J. Redick for finally claiming the ACC scoring title late in this game. He didn't get it in the manner that many would have liked, but it's his now nonetheless.

02/25/06 Boston College 74, NC State 72 (2OT) - Raleigh, N.C.
Pretty much by definition, an overtime game is exciting. A double-overtime game is thrilling.

But what about an overtime game where each team scores just four points? And if that was cringe-worthy, what about a second OT period where the winning team outscores the loser 3-1? Are you kidding? One point in overtime? Five points in two overtimes?

It was a bad week for the top league teams. Duke barely beat two weak teams. BC was spanked by Virginia and NC State lost two games.

02/25/06 Virginia Tech 72, Florida State 61 - Blacksburg, Va.
And it was a bad week for the bubble teams as well. FSU really could have put themselves in good position with a win in Blacksburg, but they couldn't pull it off. And is anyone surprised? Florida State never seems to be able to make things easy for themselves.

This was a good, solid win for the Hokies, a team that could have packed things in by now. It's been a long, difficult season, but clearly they are still fighting. That's a good sign for Seth Greenberg.

02/26/06 North Carolina 81, Maryland 57 - Chapel Hill, N.C.
Now that Roy Williams won his national championship, Gary Williams can't really use his same argument for not being "the other Williams." Maybe instead he should be "the Williams whose team of experienced players was clearly much less organized or motivated than the one full of freshman and inexperienced upperclassmen coached by the other Williams." Or is that too long? Maybe it should just be the "good Williams" and the "bad Williams." It's not that Gary Williams is a bad coach, he's clearly earned the benefit of the doubt, but he's doing a bad job with this team and he did last year as well. I think he's better suited to being the underdog and getting to the top of the mountain maybe just changed things too much. A couple of years of failure might help that.

There was never a point in this game, a game in which the Heels turned the ball over 17 times and shot just 41%, that it felt like Maryland might win. Sure they trimmed the lead a few times, but Carolina always quickly squashed the rebellion and the Terps seemed content to leave it at that. "Well, we tried." It was a bit sad, really.

Stealing From Blogs

It was bound to happen eventually. There is a lot of competition in the world of sports reporting. There are a lot of news sources and only so many stories. On top of that, you have the explosion of sports blogs in the past couple of years and it was inevitable that some chump with a paycheck would eventually steal from a blogger.

Now, I'll admit that the evidence in this case isn't rock solid, but it's pretty close. The guy may not have plagiarized the actual words of the article in question, but the topic certainly appears stolen, especially when you consider that it's the second such "coincidence."

It's a good thing I don't write well enough to be stolen from.

Getting Carried Away

Thanks to the guys at ACC BasketBlog for reminding me that I wanted to write about this.

Motivated by J.J. Redick's run at the ACC scoring record, Caulton Tudor of the Raleigh News & Observer wrote a piece this weekend on the greatest ACC backcourt and frontcourt players. To get right to the point, his list angered me.

I was mildly amused when he put Redick at #4, ahead of the much better Johnny Dawkins (don't confuse the difference between points and overall quality).

But while I thought his guard list was a bit out of whack, I was outraged at his list of big men. Ralph Sampson, one of only three players to win national player of the year three times, didn't crack Tudor's top five! Listen, I loved Shane Battier. Hell of a player, but would anyone, anyone, take him over Tim Duncan or Ralph Sampson? Are you serious? Would you take Battier over Grant Hill, Len Bias, James Worthy and Antawn Jamison?

And let me say this about Lennie Rosenbluth, Tudor's #3, he may well have been a great player, but I immediately discount any player who played in the all-white era. A blind man can see that basketball without black players just isn't the same game. Maybe Rosenbluth would have dominated in any era, but we'll never know, so I'm going to assume that his numbers are vastly inflated (and he was only a 1st team All-American once even then). If you took all of the black players out the ACC now, Nik Caner-Medley would probably be first team All-ACC!

If you want to see a much better list of ACC greats, check out Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's effort. I think he too is forgetting some guys, but it's not an easy task. He certainly gave it more thought than Tudor did.

Why Sports Are Great

You've probably seen this by now, but I'll risk an obvious post for this story. An autistic kid served as his high school basketball team's manager for several years. It was a great job for him, as he loved basketball and loved being around it. In the last game of the season, the decided to reward the young man's hard work by letting him suit up. With four minutes left in the game, which was already decided, the coach decided to send him in. All of his teammates tried to get him some points, but he missed his first two tries. Then, he got "hot as a pistol." One after another, shots started falling until he had hit six consecutive three-pointers and scored 20 points. Watch the clip. Trust me.

It's getting a little dusty in here, isn't it?

Alternate source here.

Simmons At The NBA All-Star Game

I'm sure you've all ready this by now, but bear with me. I hardly ever make it over to the World Wide Leader's website anymore. When I do, it's usually to read a Bill Simmons column and this one about his visit to the NBA All-Star game is a great one. In particular his stories about running into Charles Oakley and Michael Jordan are fantastic.

The closest I've ever come to having similar stories is seeing Chuck Nevitt at a 3-on-3 tournament in Cary a few years back. Not really the same thing, is it?

Featherston On Redick And Morrison

This J.J. Redick versus Adam Morrison race really has been remarkable. In my history of following college basketball, I can only recall one player from a major school leading the nation in scoring - Glenn Robinson of Purdue (to be fair, I didn't even remember that he led the nation until this Featherston article). There were a couple of other All-American-type players from smaller schools - Hersey Hawkins and Lionel Simmons, but generally national scoring leaders are unknown players from unknown schools. It's just normally contraindacitive to have a great team and one guy scoring so many points.

But this year we have J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison. Both great players at great programs on teams having great seasons. Duke is #1 and Gonzaga is #5.

It's incredible really.

On top of that, I've found myself really enjoying watching Redick climb the list of the ACC's all-time scorers. I didn't realize just why I was liking it so much (other than the pleasure of watching a player compete at such a high level for a whole season) until I read Al Featherston's piece on the two scorers. He points out that as Redick moves up the list, we get to remember and reflect on those past great players. That's it! This season has been not just about the present, but the past. I've found myself reminiscing about past Virginia greats Curtis Staples and Bryant Stith as well as some of my favorite ACC players, like Johnny Dawkins. I loved watching Dawkins play - he was so smooth and fast.

So, even if you're getting tired of the Redick and Morrison hype, read Featherston's article. As always, he does a great job of looking into the past to explain the present.

The Week To Be - 2/21 - 2/27/2006

02/21/06 Boston College @ Virginia - Charlottesville, Va. RSN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
(I'm going to pretend that this game hasn't happened yet and write what I planned on writing before the game. My thoughts about the actual game will go in the comments.)
This game doesn't really have any particular meaning, but that probably goes to Virginia's advantage. Virginia actually matches up well with BC because they have opposite strengths. BC will win inside and if UVA can win outside, they have a real chance

(See, I'm a real Nostradamus.)

02/22/06 Duke @ Georgia Tech - Atlanta, Ga. ESPN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
This one could get ugly. The one redeeming aspect of this game is a big one though - J.J. Redick will very likely break the all-time ACC scoring record here. He needs 31 and that's pretty much an average game for him these days. Believe me, he, his coaches and his teammates are very aware of how many points he needs. Late against Miami, they ran a few set plays to try to spring him for a three so he could catch Johnny Dawkins. Look for that again tonight.

02/22/06 Virginia Tech @ Miami - Coral Gables, Fla. ESPNU (XM 193) 7:00 PM
The Hurricanes should win by a touchdown, but keep an eye out for a big play from the special teams.

02/22/06 Clemson @ Wake Forest - Winston-Salem, NC (XM 192) 7:00 PM
Don't put the kids to bed early tonight! Set your TiVo!!! This one's gonna be a classic!

Actually, the game does have some meaning, as it's Wake Forest's best, last chance for a second ACC win. Go team.

02/22/06 North Carolina @ NC State - Raleigh, N.C. RJ* (XM 192) 9:00 PM
Herb Sendek has very slowly but steadily built up the NC State program to the point where I think he's finally won over the majority of Wolfpack supports. Even his most ardent detractors would have to admit that things have been getting better over the past 4-5 seasons. Sure, they'd rather see greatness than very goodness, but there's no denying that things are headed in the right direction.

But here's the catch. There are always two measures of success at State - how a team does overall (winning percentage, NCAA tournament success, bowl games, etc) and how the team does against UNC. Les Robinson was an awful basketball coach, but he somehow kept beating much better Carolina teams and he ended up coaching a year or two more than he should have. Mike O'Cain was a pretty good football coach, but he couldn't beat the Tar Heels, so he was shown the door. Chuck Amato came in, beat the Heels right away and was an instant star. His light shined even brighter, because he came just when Carolina was hitting a deep slump. Unfortunately for Chuckles, the Heels have (somewhat) righted themselves and have beaten his teams twice in a row now. Any surprise that the Wolfpack nation is no longer in love with the Chest?

A few years back, when Carolina was crumbling under the iron fist of Matt Doherty, State fans were cautiously optimistic that Sendek could take advantage and overtake his rivals. And he did. For a couple of years. Things reverted back to normal last year and it looks like the future will be just like the past. But this year, State has the better team. Or at least, they should. They have better, more experienced players. But that didn't produce a win in Chapel Hill. If it doesn't produce a win in Raleigh tonight, all of Sendek's slow wood chopping might just amount to a pile of kindling.

02/22/06 Maryland @ Florida State - Tallahassee, Fla. RJ* (XM 191) 9:00 PM
Now, this is an interesting game. Consider it an elimination game. A first round tourney game, if you will (and I know you will). The winner keeps its NCAA Tournament hopes alive, while the other prints up NIT tickets. Sure, the loser could still go with a late hot streak, but that's probably not going to happen. Hell, the winner's not guaranteed of anything either, but you better believe that they'd both rather be 7-6 than 6-7.

It should be pretty damn fun for those of you who get to see it.

02/25/06 Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech - Atlanta, GA ABC (XM 192) 1:00 PM
One team is young, talented and aggressive but not too productive. The other is experienced, talented and somnolent but not too productive.

I'm going with the young guys.

02/25/06 Virginia @ Clemson - Clemson, SC (XM 193) 2:00 PM
If UVA wins this game, they'll assure themselves of at least a .500 ACC record. On top of that, their RPI will probably climb into the low 50's. Shhhhhh.

02/25/06 Duke @ Temple - Philadelphia, PA ESPN (XM 191) 2:30 PM
Temple's not exactly having a great season, but you never feel too comfortable playing them. The A-10 is really, really weak this year, so this game won't really have much impact on the ACC's overall strength. Well, unless Duke loses. But that's not going to happen. Temple has scored in the 50's four of their last five games. You can't score 50 and beat Duke unless we are only talking about the first half.

02/25/06 Boston College @ NC State - Raleigh, N.C. CBS (XM 192) 3:45 PM
Two big home games for the Wolfpack this week! State completely took BC apart in their first meeting, running their offense to perfection. My guess is that after BC's loss last night, they'll be a bit more fired up for this one. I still think State matches up well with them though. Simmons can guard Smith inside and BC doesn't play good enough perimeter defense. State's guards will find a lot of daylight to shoot their threes.

02/25/06 Florida State @ Virginia Tech - Blacksburg, Va. ESPNU (XM 191) 7:00 PM
An absolute must win for the Seminoles. The Hokies are pretty much only playing for pride at this point, but given the NIT's new rules, that tournament is not out of the question. After starting 0-6 in the conference, Tech is 3-3 in their last six games. This will be no pushover for the Noles. In fact, I bet the Hokies take it.

02/26/06 Maryland @ North Carolina - Chapel Hill, N.C. FSN (XM 191) 5:30 PM
I'm really looking forward to this game, but that's mainly because I'm going to be in the Dean Dome. The Terps really need a late signature win and this is the only game on their schedule that offers them that chance. The thing is, I don't think they're going to get it done. Not in the Dome this year. The Terps are just too damn inconsistent and disorganized. The Heels defensive pressure will cause problems for Maryland who often finds it hard to score if Nik Caner-Medley isn't hitting jumpers.

Expanded ACC Standings - 2/21/2006

It wasn't a good week for the ACC bubble teams. Maryland and Virginia both slipped in almost every poll while Miami and Florida State basically spun their wheels. For Miami and UVA, their only chance was to make some big gains in the final few weeks of the season, and that didn't happen this week. Maryland loss to Clemson dropped them from a high bubble team to a low one. Florida State sort of treaded water in most of the computer polls, but somehow impressed the RPI enough to bump them up seven notches. They still have some work to do in that department, but if just winning the games they should win and losing the ones they should will keep them moving up, then they should feel pretty safe.

That FSU bump is yet another piece of evidence that the RPI is a crappy rating system. I mean, they lost on the road - fairly convincingly - to a good NC State team and then won at home - also fairly convincingly - against a mediocre Virginia team. Neither outcome was unusual or unexpected in any way. The power ratings reflected that; the Noles dropped two spots in the Pomeroy ratings, but stayed the same in both Sagarin and Greenfield. The RPI however really liked that week and jumped them from 67 to 60. Miami had a similar week, losing at home to UNC and on the road at Duke, but yet jumped 10 spots in the RPI!

I just don't get why the NCAA uses that system.

And now for the standings ...

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (25-1, 13-0)	prev	1	1	1	1	1	Absolute lock for a 1 seed
	cur	1	1	1	1	1
NC State (21-5, 10-3)	prev	17	15	15	21	17	Either a 3 or 4 seed
	cur	12	11	10	18	12.75
UNC (17-6, 8-4)	prev	19	16	21	23	19.75	A dangerous 4 or 5 seed
	cur	18	12	20	19	17.25
BC (21-5, 8-4)	prev	20	19	20	29	22	Either a 5 or 6 seed
	cur	21	18	17	34	22.5
FSU (16-7, 6-6)	prev	28	36	34	67	41.25	Strong 10 seed
	cur	30	36	34	60	40
Maryland (16-9, 6-6)	prev	36	34	40	41	37.75	9 seed or NIT
	cur	44	37	42	45	42
Virginia (13-10, 6-6)	prev	65	62	55	56	59.5	NIT and happy
	cur	70	62	62	71	66.25
Miami (14-12, 6-7)	prev	58	73	52	82	66.25	NIT, but could finish .500 and get shut out
	cur	58	73	56	72	64.75
Clemson (15-10, 4-8)	prev	81	71	73	73	74.5	Squeaks into NIT
	cur	72	62	66	66	66.5
VA Tech (13-12, 3-9)	prev	63	81	76	114	83.5	Catching up on missed episodes of Lost
	cur	68	81	82	120	87.75
GA Tech (10-14, 3-10)	prev	104	100	109	136	112.25	Paul Hewitt can go shopping for some more gold ties
	cur	101	99	108	141	112.25
Wake Forest (13-13, 1-11)	prev	89	89	93	109	95	Eric Williams falls asleep during NBA workout.
	cur	92	92	99	105	97

The Week That Was - 2/13 - 2/19/2006

First off, a site note. I, and others, normally comment on games during the week in the "The Week To Be" threads. So, sometimes what I write here is redundant and other times I am just brief because I already discussed a game in that previous thread. Feel free to jump in and say what you want about any games. There are lots of people reading this site these days and it shouldn't be hard to get a conversation started.

02/13/06 Boston College 59, Stony Brook 47 - Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Can anyone explain why this game happened? There's really no good excuse for it.

02/14/06 Clemson 89, Maryland 77 - Clemson, SC
A torpedo right in the side of Maryland's NCAA chances. Kinda like the losses to Clemson last year, huh? The Terps aren't dead yet, but this one hurts. They need a big win to offset it. At Chapel Hill is their best opportunity. Coincidently, I'll be at that game, my first live game in a couple of years.

02/14/06 Duke 93, Wake Forest 70 - Durham, NC
Remember when this game meant something? Like, last year.

02/15/06 NC State 86, Florida State 64 - Raleigh, N.C.
A good, solid win for NC State. Honestly, considering how the season has been going and how they took care of things early, this might have been their best win of the year. For FSU, while this loss was expected, they can't afford too many more if they are going to go dancing.

02/15/06 Virginia 91, Longwood University 56 - Charlottesville, Va.
Unlike BC, Virginia has a pretty defensible position here. They were supposed to be bad this year - Wake Forest bad - so a scheduled win late in the year made some sense. Unfortunately for the Cavs (well, fortunately, but you know what I mean) they actually have outside NCAA chances, so a game like this is bad. Even a win likely hurts their computer numbers.

02/15/06 North Carolina 82, Georgia Tech 75 - Chapel Hill, N.C.
Tyler Hansbrough's performance in this game will enter UNC lore. Folks will bring it up years for now.

02/16/06 Boston College 65, Miami 54 - Chestnut Hill, Mass
A tree fell in a forest and no one noticed.

02/18/06 NC State 70, Virginia Tech 64 - Blacksburg, Va.
I still haven't decided - is it good that NC State just keeps on winning or is it bad that they seem to be incapable of winning games comfortably? Which attribute will be more important come NCAA Tournament time? My head says that they are playing with fire too much and are going to get burned, but my heart says that this is a team that just knows how to win. It'll be interesting to see.

02/18/06 Florida State 76, Virginia 62 - Tallahassee, Fla.
Exactly what the Seminoles needed. Virginia is dangerous and you can't let them stick around, not in a game like this that FSU absolutely had to have. Andrew Wilson hit seven threes and then headed out to Ryan's for the Early Bird special and some tapioca pudding.

02/18/06 Maryland 87, Georgia Tech 84 (OT) - College Park, Md.
Whew! Man, those Yellow Jackets are scaring the crap out of teams up and down the ACC. Sadly for them, they aren't actually beating too many teams. Good thing for the Terps, because another loss would have pretty much eliminated them from NCAA consideration. As for now, they are still alive, but the Machine That Goes Bing! is barely binging.

02/19/06 North Carolina 83, Wake Forest 72 - Winston-Salem, N.C.
Is Carolina now the second best team in the ACC? They sure look like it. As I expected, Wake Forest came out hungry and aggressive in this one. The Deacons actually played pretty good defense for much of the game, but this time it was their offense that deserted them. When the Heels clamped down on D in the second half, as they are making a habit of doing, Wake went cold.

For Wake, it's hard to think of what they have to play for now. The only game left that might get their attention is their last one, Senior Day with NC State as the guests. I'm guessing they win either that one or Clemson at home to finish the year 2-14.

02/19/06 Duke 92, Miami 71 - Durham, N.C.
Miami did two very good things in this game and one very bad one.

First, they employed a 2-3 zone defense in the middle of the first half and it completely flummoxed Duke. I'm not sure anyone's dared try that against Redick and company this year, but damn if it didn't work. Confused, the Blue Devils turned the ball over a bunch and the Hurricanes got right back into the game.

Second, they attacked Duke off the dribble (like everyone does) and then pulled up in the lane to avoid challenging Shelden Williams. Duke's guards just couldn't stay in front of the Hurricanes. I actually felt bad for Greg Paulus a few times when Guillermo Diaz turned him into a pretzel.

But they had one problem. I'm guessing before the game, Frank Haith and staff pointed out that Duke tends to rely on their shooting guard for points. Wears number 4. Well, about a minute and a half into the game, J.J. Redick already had 8 points. He hit another three about a minute later. It looked for a while there like he might catch Johnny Dawkins by halftime and then go ahead and get Dickie Hemric in the second. The dude is really, really good.

Beating Around The Bubble

Way back on January first, StateFans Nation wrote an excellent post looking at how the RPI affects bubble teams. They looked at every season back to 1999 and found that basically if you are in a power conference and have an RPI of 35 or better, you're in (duh). If you have an RPI between 36 and 45, you have a slightly better than 50% chance. Slip to 46 to 55 and your likelihood drops to about 30%. If you're 56 or over, you still have a shot, but it's mightly slim.

Nice work, fellas.

Roanoke Riflemen

As you've probably heard, last night J.J. Redick broke the NCAA record for career three-pointers. The man whose record he broke, Virginia's Curtis Staples, was actually in the house to watch the title switch hands (does anyone know how or why that came to be? Did Staples have to transfer a title belt or something?) During the game, Billy Packer pointed something out that I had never thought about before - Staples and Redick both grew up in Roanoke, Virginia.

On top of that, the number five all-time shooter, Doug Day is from Blacksburg and played at nearby Radford University.

Weird, huh? I can't explain what it is about southwest Virginia that creates these shooters. Maybe it's the mountains - number three all-time shooter Keith Veney played at Marshall in West Virginia.

p.s. Have I ever mentioned that I was born in Radford, VA? That must explain my silky-smooth stroke.

p.p.s. Check number four on that list. It's active player Keydren Clark of St. Peter's. It's possible that Redick may gain and then lose two career NCAA marks this year - three-pointers made and career free throw percentage (Missouri State junior Blake Ahearn will pass J.J. once he gets enough attempts to qualify).

Valentine's Day Wishes From Chris

Chris Chase has just what you need to make your Valentine's Day just a little sweeter.

The Adam Morrison mustache bit is particularly inspired.

The Week To Be - 2/13 - 2/19/2006

02/13/06 Boston College 59, Stony Brook 47 - Chestnut Hill, Mass. (XM 191) 7:00 PM
Hey BC, you're not in the Big East anymore. We don't play on Monday nights around here.

02/14/06 Maryland @ Clemson - Clemson, SC RJ* (XM 191) 8:00 PM
Maryland really needs this game to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Wait, didn't I write that same thing a few times last year? Remember how it turned out then?

02/14/06 Wake Forest @ Duke - Durham, NC RJ* (XM 192) 8:00 PM
This won't hurt a bit, Wake. Just lie down and take what's coming to ya.

02/15/06 Florida State @ NC State - Raleigh, N.C. ESPNU (XM 193) 7:00 PM
Hmmm. Interesting. Florida State sure could use a marquee win to bolster their resume and here's an opportunity right here. State seems to have a problem with aggressive, athletic teams. And FSU sure is athletic. If they can be aggressive and hit some shots, they could absolutely take this game. If that happens, I suspect State fans won't still be understanding.

02/15/06 Longwood @ Virginia - Charlottesville, Va. (XM 192) 7:00 PM
Did you know that 1980's NBA dunk contest sleeper Jerome Kersey went to Longwood University? Yeah well, I'm pretty sure they don't have anyone like that right now.

02/15/06 Georgia Tech @ North Carolina - Chapel Hill, N.C. ESPN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
The Heels better be careful here. North Carolina is coming into their own, but they are young and might be fooled by Georgia Tech's record. They shouldn't be. The Yellow Jackets can play. Sometimes.

Keep an eye on this one to see if Carolina has graduated from being a good team to a very good team (very good teams take care of bidness at home against lesser foes).

02/16/06 Miami @ Boston College - Chestnut Hill, Mass. RSN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
The John Swofford Classic!

02/18/06 NC State @ Virginia Tech - Blacksburg, Va. ABC (XM 191) 1:00 PM
Man, State has two trap games this week, don't they?

Sadly, Coleman Collins' father passed away on Monday. Don't be surprised if the team rallies around him in this game.

02/18/06 Virginia @ Florida State - Tallahassee, Fla. RJ* (XM 192) 4:00 PM
Can the Cavaliers keep it going? They lost to Florida State at home, but not before going to overtime. As I mentioned above, Florida State needs to win this one. It wouldn't shock me if they beat State on the road and then came home to lose this one.

02/18/06 Georgia Tech @ Maryland - College Park, Md. RJ* (XM 193) 4:00 PM
Despite their loss to Duke, I think Maryland has turned the corner. They've gotten over the loss of McCray and are playing better. Maybe they can't be as good as they could have been with McCray, but they still have enough players to be a Sweet Sixteen team. They should take this one.

02/19/06 North Carolina @ Wake Forest - Winston-Salem, N.C. ABC (XM 191) 1:30 PM
Can Wake muster the effort to beat their rival? Something tells me that they can. I'd be surprised if you don't see a dangerous Deacon team in this one.

02/19/06 Miami @ Duke Durham, N.C. FSN (XM 192) 5:30 PM
Duke is susceptible to teams that attack off the dribble, and Miami sort of does that. Diaz is great off the dribble and Hite and Harris are OK. I think Hite would rather come off curls and shoot jumpers though. I don't think they're organized enough to attack Duke's defense though and they have no answer for Shelden Williams inside (did you see Hansbrough carve them up inside the other night?).

Quin Snyder's Greatest Hits

And I'm not talking about "Eye Of The Tiger."

The Zou, a Mizzou blog (get it?) runs down the impressive list of lowlights of pretty-boy Quin Snyder's career in Columbia.

Yeah, it was a rough ride, but at least he can fall back on modeling (I mean look at that picture! Do you think the photographer asked him to make love to the camera? Ooooh, yes Quin, baby! You're sexy! You're an animal. Click. Click. I love it! Now, growl at me. You're a tiger! Click. Click.) or maybe selling hair product.

Expanded ACC Standings

It's getting to be the time of year when you can start to seriously evaluate teams' postseason chances. With about a month of play left to determine things, it's still a bit early for some teams, but we can certainly tell who the significant players are.

With that in mind, I'm reviving a feature I started last year where I look at several different computer ratings, including the RPI, and see how the ACC teams stack up. I use non-RPI ratings for two main reasons. First, the RPI just isn't a very good system and second, because if you look at past history, other computer ratings systems have been as effective or even more effective than the RPI in finding NCAA tournament teams. Remember, the RPI is only one tool that the selection committee uses. All of the other factors they weigh, overall record, good wins, bad losses, late season surges/slumps, etc. are factored into any good computer rating. Plus, there's nothing that says they don't crack open a USA Today and look at Sagarin's numbers.

So anyway, here is a table of the ACC teams and how they are doing. Starting next week, I'll have current and previous numbers in there along with an arrow showing if the team is rising or falling. For this week, I pointed the arrow the way I think the teams are going.

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (23-1, 11-0)	prev						Absolute lock for a 1 seed
	cur	1	1	1	1	1
NC State (19-5, 8-3)	prev						Either a 3 or a 4 seed
	cur	17	15	15	21	17
BC (19-5, 7-4)	prev						Either a 3 or a 4 seed
	cur	20	19	20	29	22
UNC (15-6, 6-4)	prev						Probably a 4 or 5 seed
	cur	19	16	21	23	19.75
Miami (14-10, 6-5)	prev						Just misses out on NCAA
	cur	58	73	52	82	66.25
Virginia (12-9, 6-5)	prev						NIT and happy
	cur	65	62	55	56	59.5
FSU (15-6, 5-5)	prev						Strong 10 seed
	cur	28	36	34	67	41.25
Maryland (15-8, 5-5)	prev						9 seed
	cur	36	34	40	41	37.75
VA Tech (13-11, 3-8)	prev						Watching spring football
	cur	63	81	76	114	83.5
Clemson (14-10, 3-8)	prev						Squeaks into NIT
	cur	81	71	73	73	74.5
GA Tech (10-12, 3-8)	prev						Looking forward to next year
	cur	104	100	109	136	112.25
Wake Forest (13-11, 1-9)	prev						Turmoil
	cur	89	89	93	109	95

Father Flanagan Still Has Spots

A couple of years ago, I wrote an article about Oklahoma State's Eddie Sutton. At the time he had just offered a scholarship to former Tar Heel recruit JamesOn Curry (who as you might remember, lost his opportunity to play for UNC when he was busted for selling drugs).

In that article I used the line "I'm not so sure a leopard can really change his spots."

It seems I may have been right. Sutton just took a leave of absence for the rest of the season after injuring himself in a car wreck. After the accident, Sutton was charged with DUI. One choice quote from that ESPN article:

Witnesses told police that shortly before the accident, Sutton was unsteady on his feet and struck his head after falling in the parking lot of Gallagher-Iba Arena before entering his vehicle, Stillwater police said Saturday.

The key part of this to me is the way that Sutton was handled by the media when his team made the 2004 Final Four. At that time, the media tripped over each other to write glowing articles about the man. One of the key angles they covered was a handy way to get around his serious NCAA troubles at Kentucky - he was a recovering alcoholic. It was made clear that he had confronted his demons and won. If there's one thing Americans love, it's a recovered scoundrel. Great stuff! Plus, it's just tacky to attack a man for being an alcoholic, so that allowed them to write great things about him without paying much attention to his past cheating.

Now don't get me wrong, I think Eddie Sutton is a great basketball coach. I love the way his teams play and clearly he has a great side to him, because those who get to know him seem to really love him. But to me once a cheater, always a cheater. And a cheater is no different than a liar (and addicts make great liars). Let's just say I'm not shocked to find out that the stories of him being dry and squeaky clean might not be 100% true.

The Week(end) That Was 2/11 - 2/12/2006

02/11/06 Duke 96, Maryland 88 - College Park, Md.
I wrote that Maryland would have to come out and play with the passion that they showed late against Virginia, and they did. But it still wasn't enough. Unfortunately for them, I think Duke played their most complete offensive game of the year, getting points from a bunch of different players. Maryland's only obvious failing was some shoddy interior defense at times. They gave up a few too many dunks and layups, but considering who they were playing and how well that team played, an eight-point loss isn't too shabby.

Now they just need to keep it up or they're gonna miss the Tournament again.

02/11/06 Wake Forest 59, Charlotte 56 - Winston-Salem, N.C.
Good for Wake. They needed something good to happen. Oddly enough, they won with Justin Gray scoring only 4 points.

One thing I learned when I read about this game is that Charlotte is now in the Atlantic 10. I did not know that. I guess the A-10 ain't so good this year, because Charlotte was hot coming into this one.

02/11/06 Virginia 81, Virginia Tech 77 (OT) - Charlottesville, Va.
The Cavaliers keep it going and now have a season sweep of their in-state rivals. I had to watch this one via GameTracker and it was brutal.

The weird stat in this one? UVA point guard Sean Singletary took 19 shots and had no assists. Shooting guard J.R. Reynolds took 13 shots and had 12 assists.

02/11/06 Boston College 67, Clemson 61 - Boston, MA
The Tigers made the Eagles sweat on their home court, but couldn't close the deal. Craig Smith had another sub-par performance, with 11 points and 7 rebounds.

02/12/06 Georgia Tech 71, NC State 68 - Atlanta, Ga.
I was sure that the NC State message boards would be aflame after this one - The Sky Is Falling! The Sky Is Falling! But, they were surprisingly (and disappointingly) reasonable about the result. NC State fan - I hardly know you anymore.

The Pack faithful took the right attitude here though. While GT had lost 8 in a row, they are not a bad team. In fact, they have several very good players. I particularly like Ra'Sean Dickey and Jeremis Smith down low - two big, strong athletes. I do wonder how Anthony Morrow leads that team in scoring though. Every time I've watched them play, he's done nothing.

For State, they just need to learn how to play hard every game. They were almost always a step slow in this game and while they kept it close, couldn't make the big play at the end this time. If they played as hard in every game as they do in their biggest games, they'd be a borderline top-ten squad.

02/12/06 Florida State 73, UMass 63 - Tallahassee, Fla.
I really thought the Seminoles were going to blow this one. I'm glad I was wrong, as the Noles represent the ACC's possible fifth or sixth NCAA team.

02/12/06 North Carolina 80, Miami 70 - Coral Gables, Fla.
Miami was doing great in the second half. They had eliminated the big Tar Heel lead and in fact, had the lead at times. Guillermo Diaz was hot and was dominating the Heels. No one could stay in front of him. Then, Frank Haith took Diaz out at about the 12 minute mark - Diaz was breathing pretty hard - and that was that. By the time Diaz got back in, the Hurricanes had relaxed and never again seemed to threaten. Diaz simply disappeared until he hit a Jordanesque reverse when the game was all but over.

I still don't understand why that team's not better. they have Diaz, who has All-American talent, Robert Hite, who has the best stats on the team, point guard Anthony Harris and big man Anthony King who has two or three pretty plays each game (but yet only scores 9 ppg), they should be a top-25 squad. When those upperclassmen leave, I predict bad things for this program.

For the Heels, it was a nice win. Reyshawn Terry (the best Ray-Shawn in the league) continues to play like I've never seen him before. Sometime about a week or two ago, for some reason, a light switch flipped for him. He's playing hard on both ends of the floor and doing things he's never done before. He's made the team so much tougher by taking pressure off of Hansbrough and David Noel, who can't handle being the #2 scorer.

Set Your TiVo

I just checked my TiVo's schedule of upcoming events and saw a couple of shows in there that you might not want to miss. Next Thursday, 2/16, at 2pm, ESPN Classic is airing the great 1992 Duke-Kentucky game, also known as the Laettner game. This is the NCAA Regional Final game where Laettner stomped (stepped, really) on the chest of Kentucky's Aminu Timberlake and hit every shot he took including the classic game-winner that we've all seen a million times. This is one the few games in my life where I can remember vividly where I was and who I was with when I watched it. I'm getting fired up just thinking about seeing it again.

And if that's not enough, the very next day, 2/17, at 2pm ESPN Classic is airing the 1991 Duke-UNLV Final Four game. The Kentucky game from 1992 rightly gets a lot of attention and is called possibly the greatest college basketball game ever, but don't forget this 1991 game. For the youngsters, UNLV had one of the most powerful and dominant college teams ever. They steamrolled Duke by 30 points in the 1990 NCAA Championship and then cruised through the 1991 nearly unchallenged. They played a fairly weak schedule, but blew everyone out, with the exception of Arkansas, who was also in (or near, really) their heyday. Duke got their chance for revenge in the 1991 Final Four and most thought it would end just like their previous matchup. But Bobby Hurley and Christian Laettner had grown up quite a bit in their junior year (and they now had a freshman named Grant Hill) and they went on to pull off one of the great upsets of college basketball history. It's funny to think of it that way since those 1991 and 1992 Duke title teams are considered some of the best teams ever, but that just tells you how good that UNLV squad, with Stacey Augmon, Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Moses Scurry, Richard "The Fixer" Perry and Anderson Hunt, was.

I am pumped to watch these games. ESPN Classic is the shizzle.

The Weekend To Be 2/11 - 2/12/2006

02/11/06 Duke @ Maryland - College Park, Md. CBS (XM 191) 1:00 PM
If you watched Maryland beat Virginia the other night, you saw two completely different Maryland teams - the one that played the first 32 minutes and the one that played the final 8. How they do in this game will depend entirely on which team shows up. Sure, they got hot late in the game against the Cavs, but it was their overall effort, particularly on the defensive boards that really made the difference. Sometimes when you take care of all the little things like fighting through screens and boxing out, the more obvious stuff like hitting jumpers just happens.

Do you think Gary is excited about all of the negative attention being paid to Duke in regards to officiating? Couldn't come at a better time for his team.

I guess it goes without saying, but this one could be an upset. Or, if the first-half-against-Virginia Terp team shows up, a blowout.

02/11/06 UNC Charlotte @ Wake Forest - Winston-Salem, N.C. ABC (XM 192) 3:30 PM
Seriously, it's getting hard to watch Wake play this year. It's like watching an alcoholic slowly drink himself to death. I don't think anyone in Deacon-land would complain if they just canceled the rest of this season.

02/11/06 Virginia Tech @ Virginia - Charlottesville, Va. RJ* (XM 192) 8:00 PM
A rivalry game! Well, almost. Maybe in another five or ten years this will really feel like a big game to Virginia fans. I can't say for sure, but I'm guessing it's already big for the Hokies. For Virginia though, Carolina has always been the most hated basketball rival, with Duke and Maryland as close alternates.

The winner of this one keeps their NIT hopes alive.

02/11/06 Clemson @ Boston College - Boston, MA RJ* (XM 193) 8:00 PM
Remember a few weeks ago when Clemson was 11-0? I think I wrote about how they always start that way and it's always a mirage. Well guess what?

On the flip side, BC's 0-3 ACC start is a distant memory and if you look at their remaining ACC schedule, it's easy to see them losing no more than one more conference game. They certainly won't lose this one.

02/12/06 NC State @ Georgia Tech - Atlanta, Ga. RJ (XM 191) 1:00 PM
Eight losses in a row for Georgia Tech. And counting. Their next four games? State at home, at UNC, at Maryland and home against Duke.
Anyone want to bet that the streak hits 12 games?

02/12/06 UMass @ Florida State - Tallahassee, Fla. FSN (XM 192) 5:30 PM
FSU still has realistic NCAA dreams. They can't afford to lose games like this. Lose to UMass at home and you don't deserve an NCAA bid, period.

02/12/06 North Carolina @ Miami - Coral Gables, Fla. FSN (XM 191) 8:00 PM
Hmm, this is an interesting one. Miami sort of exposed UNC a few weeks ago up in Chapel Hill, but since then the Heels have adjusted and improved. Meanwhile, Miami has also done pretty well, with the exception of the beating they took in Charlottesville. They haven't convinced me they are for real yet though. I like the talent, but I don't like the schemes (and I'm being generous with that word). I wonder if the Hurricanes wouldn't actually be better without Guillermo Diaz? He's the kind of talented player who has a game that ruins his teammates' games.

I say the Heels take the lessons they learned from Duke the other night and apply them in a road win over the Canes. If that does happen, look for Miami to drop three in a row (the two after UNC are Duke and BC on the road). This is not a team that I think will react well to a three-game skid.

The Devil's In The Details

Last night, Boston College beat Wake Forest 72-66 in Winston-Salem. In that game, BC attempted 50 free throws while Wake had just 14 - a 3.5 to 1 ratio. The Demon Deacons were whistled for 31 fouls, while the Eagles were nabbed just 17 times.

Oddly enough, unlike last week when Boston College lost to Duke, there was no hue and cry over the officiating. After the Duke game, BC coach Al Skinner gracefully commented that "[he didn't] remember us getting the benefit. Even the last play. There's contact on that last play and it's OK. We make contact and it's a foul. We played well enough and I thought we would earn the respect of the officials. Maybe it didn't work out that way." In that Duke game, the Blue Devils shot 37 free throws to the Eagles' 13 (a less-than-3 to 1 ratio). Duke committed 19 fouls to BC's 27.

Similarly, after the Duke-Florida State game, the nation erupted in articles debating not whether or not Duke "gets all the calls," but just how much benefit they get and why they get it. In that game, Duke shot 43 free throws to Florida State's 11. Duke committed 15 fouls to the Seminoles' 28.

The strange thing is that I don't recall any outrage after FSU's previous game, a win over Clemson. In that game, played at Clemson, the Seminoles shot twice as many free throws as the Tigers (35 to 18) and committed one third fewer fouls (17 to 26). In the game before that, a loss to Miami, FSU attempted 23 freebies to the Hurricanes' 9.

Such disparities, but no complaints? I wonder why that is? Could it be that these sorts of differences in fouls and free throws are completely ordinary? Could it be that the numbers don't add up to incontrovertible evidence of a double-standard?

Hmmmm.

p.s. In the game before they played Duke, BC shot nearly three times as many free throws as Georgia Tech (32 to 13) while committing 10 fewer fouls (13 to 23).

The Big Game

It's always a big deal when you can score a big upset over your arch-rival. We almost saw that on Tuesday night. With just a few minutes to play, in fact, the upset by the younger, less talented team seemed likely. But in the end, experience and talent won out, like it usually does and Virginia had to go home a loser.

What?

What game did you think I was writing about?

OK, yeah, that one was big too. Before I get to that one though, I want to talk a bit about UVA's near upset of Maryland. If you didn't see the game, you'd see the final score, 76-65 and think that Virginia played OK on the road, keeping the score close. But you'd be wrong. For 30 minutes, Virginia played excellent basketball and was beating the Terps up on both ends of the floor. Maryland finally got their act together late and forged their first tie with 8 minutes left. The lead went back and forth for a few minutes before the Terrapins had a timely hot streak and pulled away.

For the Cavs, it was the second consecutive near-upset on the road against a top-tier ACC team. So how are they doing it? You know all about Sean Singletary and you've probably noticed that J.R. Reynolds has been playing well lately, but those guys aren't really the story. They've been doing that all season. What's really fueled Virginia's surprising recent play has been their rebounding. Virginia isn't a particularly big team and they certainly don't have any interior players who anyone will consider for all-conference honors (unless Field & Stream votes on a team) but they have managed to out-rebound their last six opponents. They beat Wake Forest, the conference's best rebounding team at that point, by 20 boards! They grabbed three more boards than Maryland, but that's only because the Terps woke up late. Virginia had a huge lead on the glass in the first half (where they also had a big lead on the scoreboard).

So that's your lesson of the day kids. Even if you aren't a particularly efficient offensive team or even a great defensive team, you can stay in games by spanking teams on the glass. Simply put, extra rebounds are extra possessions and if you have 5-10 more possessions than your opponent, you can beat just about anyone.

OK, now on to the Duke-UNC game. As always, it was a lot of fun to watch. Say what you want about the rivalry being past its prime or overrated, but every time those teams face off, you know you are going to see talented players playing as hard they can for great coaches in front of a huge and rabid audience. It always makes for a great event.

This game was no exception, although the play was pretty ragged for most of the first half. UNC was playing so fast, probably due to over-excited youth, and Duke, knowing the UNC would cough it up if hurried, was content to play along. So we saw a mix of great plays and ugly turnovers.

When I briefly previewed the game, I mentioned the potential rivalry of point guards Bobby Frasor and Greg Paulus but somehow I forgot to mention the other potential rivalry between inside studs Tyler Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts. Both were among the top high school players in the country last year and both were expected to do great things this season. Because of their different teams, UNC has asked more of Hansbrough all season and he has answered. McRoberts, on the other hand, has struggled at times with his different role. Recently though, McRoberts has been showing signs of finally figuring things out. On Tuesday night, facing his old high school all-star game foe Hansbrough, McRoberts played his best game yet. You could argue that he outplayed Hansbrough, in fact. Maybe that spark and the success it brought will carry over to the rest of the season. Duke needs that to be the case.

In the second half of the game, when Duke built their big lead and then lost it, the pace slowed slightly, but was still quite frantic. Again, I attributed that to the energy in the building until about 8-5 minutes were left in the game. At that point, Roy had played just about everyone on his bench, including some guy named Copeland that I'd never even heard of. Duke only played seven guys all game and at this point, they were clearly tired. It was then that I realized that the pace was not just the result of young bucks running wild. It was Roy Williams' strategy from the get go. He thought he could tired out Duke's team and it was working! A brilliant stroke. Unfortunately for Roy, with the various TV timeouts and other stoppages, Duke got their legs back. Or at least, J.J. Redick did. And this season, that's all Duke needs. The shots that Redick hit late in that game were incredible. Honestly, I shouldn't be surprised at anything the guy does anymore, but yet I am. I seriously think that Redick may be having the best offensive season I've ever seen in the ACC, and that includes guys like Len Bias, Michael Jordan, Dennis Scott, Rodney Monroe, Christian Laettner, Walt Williams and all the other stars I've watched over the past 25 years. Redick hits difficult shots against tight defense and he hits them at critical times. Even the folks that hate him are begrudgingly admitting that this season has been special.

In the end, Carolina lost and I'm sure it hurt, but they really did play a good game. Not a perfect game, but a good one. They should be able to learn some things about consistent effort and execution that they can take with them the rest of the season. For Duke, they have to feel good about McRoberts' recent improvement, but should be worried about their late turnovers and apparent fatigue. They've built a two-game lead in the conference (and there's another two-game gap between second and third), so they might want to consider tinkering a bit with things to get ready for the post-season tournaments. I hope to have another article with more of my thoughts on that in the next few days.

Duke - UNC

Odds are that I won't get time to do any sort of decent preview of tonight's UNC-Duke game, so I'm going to reward the efforts of others.

Check out the link compilations at the ACC BasketBlog and the Duke Basketball Report. You'll find way more than you'll ever need.

Quickly, I'll say that I really don't have a good read on this game. I don't think Carolina is exactly the sort of team that gives Duke trouble (long, athletic teams that drive to the basket), but they are pretty close. Hansbrough should be able to score inside, but I'm concerned about their ball-handling (insert Chris Paul joke here). You just can't turn the ball over 25 times against Duke and hope to win. On the flip side, given the current climate, I suspect that Carolina might expect to get some favorable calls tonight. I'm sure the refs will be extra careful after the bashing they've taken after the past two Duke games.

BTW, if I were Carolina, I'd put a good defender on Redick and otherwise just let him go. Don't build any elaborate schemes for him. If he gets 30 or 40, so be it. Just don't allow the focus on him enable the other Blue Devils to beat you.

I'm looking forward to an exciting, intense game. I'm also interested in seeing the first installment in what could be a nice rivalry between Greg Paulus and Bobby Frasor (although Frasor will probably lose his job next year to Tywon Lawson).

Prosser Feeds Monster

For the first time (that I've noticed), Skip Prosser talked a bit about the rumors that have him going to Cincinnati next year. He only talked about it because a recruit brought it up, nervous that the coach he thinks he's gonna play for may not be at Wake Forest next year.

The thing is, Prosser didn't come out and state unequivicably that he would not pursue the Cincy job. Instead Prosser pointed out that he has a personal policy of not talking about coaching rumors. Well, that's fine and actually I agree with that stance. Mostly. It's a great attitude to have for most college jobs. You just never know for sure what opportunities you will or won't have in the future and there's just no advantage to saying you will or will not look at other jobs.

But Wake Forest isn't most jobs. Prosser says that he formed his policy while at Xavier. That's fine, but let's be honest, Xavier isn't a final destination job. Xavier has a long history of hiring good coaches and then watching them go on to bigger programs. It's the way things are. But Wake Forest is a final destination job (Dave Odom excepted). You don't normally leave a place like Wake for another school unless a super-elite program like Kansas or Kentucky comes calling.

Skip Prosser says that speculation is "a monster that's never satiated," but he's wrong. He could not only satiate the monster, but kill it by simply stating that he will not interview for the Cincinnati job. He could say that he will stay at Wake Forest for as long as they'll have him. What's the harm in that unless he really thinks he might pursue other jobs?

The Week That Was - 1/30 - 2/5/2006

01/31/06 Virginia Tech 63, Georgia Tech 62 - Blacksburg, Va.
A good win for the Hokies in that they needed another conference win, but honestly, it's hard to see it being that significant for either team in the long run. Georgia Tech is already too deep in the hole to realistically consider any postseason tournament and Virginia Tech is in nearly as much trouble. The best news for the Hokies is that it was their second consecutive ACC win. The bad part is that they don't get to see Wake Forest or Georgia Tech again.

01/31/06 Miami 78, Wake Forest 69 - Coral Gables, FL
It's telling that this result is not surprising at all at this point. It would have been almost a shock if Wake Forest had gone down to Miami and won. Miami has quietly established themselves as a top-half ACC team. A little too quietly, apparently. Only 4124 fans deemed the game worth the effort to attend. Is that an indictment of Miami's program or Wake Forest's?

02/01/06 NC State 66, Virginia 64 - Raleigh, N.C.
NC State looked to me to be the better team all night, but they couldn't shake the tenacious Cavaliers. Virginia is like an ugly mutt that just keeps hanging on to a chew toy no matter how much you shake it. While they aren't quite pretty enough to love, you have to admire their effort.

Virginia actually could make an argument that they should have won this game. They built a late lead after trailing all game, but the Wolfpack woke up just in time and made just enough plays to seal the win. A Sean Singletary 30-footer that would have won the game clanged off the rim at the buzzer. Pack fans can take solace in the fact that they used to lose games like this.

02/01/06 Florida State 69, Clemson 59 - Tallahassee, FL
Like Miami, Florida State is quietly having a good year. One thing good teams do is take care of business against lesser teams at home. FSU has already dropped two home games, so getting this one was important for them. The win put them at 4-4 at the midway part of the conference schedule. Clemson dropped to 3-5.

02/01/06 Duke 83, Boston College 81 - Chestnut Hill, Mass.
This was the marquee matchup of the week and it certainly lived up to its billing. BC packed the house and even sprinkled in some celebrities who wanted to see the traveling Duke show. They probably didn't like what they saw. Duke built a big lead and then inexplicably got tentative. The Eagles are not a terribly pretty team, but they are tenacious and Duke's relaxed attitude really gave them life. Jared Dudley in particular is an emotional player and he damn near rode a wave of energy to a huge comeback win.

After the game, most of the attention was focused on a bad missed call in the final seconds. Shelden Williams pretty clearly fouled Tyrese Rice with just about 8 seconds left but no foul was called. It's important to note though that even if Rice had gotten the call and hit both free throws, BC would still have been down one and would have been forced to foul. The game was far from won yet.

The missed call and the free throw disparity - Duke attempted 37 while BC shot just 13 - led to a frenzy of "Duke Gets All The Calls" missives and just stoked the fire for Duke's second game of the week. Read on for more on that one.

02/02/06 North Carolina 77, Maryland 62 - College Park, Md.
I'm not sure if this win meant more for UNC than it hurt Maryland. It was certainly important for both. Carolina's had a nice season, but they hadn't yet proven whether they were a good story or a good team. Road wins in College Park, especially 15-point wins, are signs of a good team.

For Maryland, this game sort of exemplified their whole post-Blake/Dixon/Baxter existence - a whole lot of running around and shouting, but not a lot of good basketball. It's really interesting to look at the three non-Duke-or-UNC ACC programs who recently stepped up into national prominence. Maryland won a national title in 2002. Last year, they missed the NCAA tourney and it looks likely that they'll miss it again this year. Georgia Tech played in the national title game in 2004. They will finish with a losing record this year. Wake Forest hit #1 in the country early last season. They have completely fallen apart this year and may well finish with a losing record.

You see, it's hard to stay on top. Many teams reach the pinnacle, or near it. In fact, a few teams do every year. But very, very few programs can sustain that excellence. It's very hard to to. Think about that and appreciate what Duke and UNC have done for decades now.

02/04/06 Duke 97, Florida State 96 (OT) - Durham, N.C.
This was a great, exciting game. Florida State came into Cameron and played with no fear and came about as close as you can (well OK, Virginia Tech came closer) to winning. If only Leonard Hamilton could bottle the intensity that his teams bring when they play Duke. The Noles seem to upset Duke every other season or so, but still manage to muddle around the lower reaches of the league. Why can't they bring their A game against everyone?

For Duke, two big issues came out of this game, issues that I don't have room to address here. I'll try to get to them later. The first is the one I alluded to above - Duke getting the calls. The Blue Devils attempted 43 free throws in this game while Florida State attempted just 11. At the same time, Duke attempted 22 three-pointer while FSU tried just 10. Those numbers, plus a few very questionable calls (including one the ACC suspended the refs for) have really ignited the Duke haters out there into an inferno of conspiracy theories. Since I could write a lot of words on this issue, I'll wait until I can give it the space it deserves. For now, just read this excellent Al Featherston piece that addresses most of the key points.

The other key issue this game illuminated to me was Duke's stubborn use of man-to-man defense. Again though, I don't have the time or space to address it here. Look for an article on this soon.

02/04/06 Virginia 75, Wake Forest 73 - Charlottesville, VA
Another solid win by the Cavaliers and another feeble effort from Wake Forest. While sharing the court with all-conference players Justin Gray and Eric Williams, Sean Singletary further cemented my opinion that he is a first-team caliber player. Singletary completely dominated the run of play at times - scoring, passing and even rebounding. The numbers may not fully justify it, but Singletary should be on the first team All-ACC squad (at this point).

02/04/06 Miami 70, Georgia Tech 53 - Atlanta, Ga.
Make it three straight ACC wins for Miami, including two on the road. I think they are still an NCAA bubble team, but they are putting themselves on the high side of that bubble.

02/04/06 North Carolina 76, Clemson 61 - Chapel Hill, NC
Taxes and death and all that.

BTW, I didn't realize that Reyshawn Terry was such a talented impressionist. The last couple of games, he's done an outstanding impression of a good player!

02/04/06 Boston College 74, Virginia Tech 73 - Blacksburg, Va.
Heartbreak #342 for the Hokies. Despite my words above, a win here might have sparked a late run for the Turkeys. Not only would it have been an upset over a ranked team, but it would have been their third straight conference win. Alas, ''twas not to be.

For BC, I'm starting to think that I need to swap Craig Smith and Jared Dudley. Dudley is playing fantastic basketball and he's the heart of this team. Craig Smith seems a bit disinterested at times.

02/05/06 NC State 62, Maryland 58 - Raleigh, N.C.
Just enough to win - that's NC State's modus operandi of late. This game was pretty damn ugly, but the Pack got the result that they needed. They don't include style points in the standings.

The Terps have now lost three straight. They beat Georgia Tech just after losing Chris McCray, but they are o-fer since. It's looking bleak for this team right now. They have a good collection of players, but they just seem lost. They don't fit together or something. It just goes to show the value of a good, authentic point guard. DJ Strawberry is a nice player, but he's not a point guard.

Rolling In The WRGPT

I apologize in advance. This post is pure vanity. Feel free to move on without reading this one.

Back in September, I posted about an email poker tournament called the WRGPT (The World rec.gambling.poker Tournament). It's a very slow poker tourney and it's for free, but it does attract some poker heavyweights, or at least, it has. Chris Ferguson and Greg Raymer have both played in it in the past. I don't really know a lot of poker pros, but I understand that there are several in this tournament.

Anyway, I'm posting to brag. Not only am I still alive in the tourney, but I've moved up to third place! (That's the live standings. Click here for an archived version.) Considering that I've never played no-limit hold-em against real people before, I'm pretty pleased with myself. Over 1200 people started the tournament and about 285 are left.

I'm looking to win this thing.

Missing Free Throws, A Tiger Tradition

We all know that Clemson has likely cost themselves a win or two this year with their poor free throw shooting. What you may not know is that the 2006 Tigers are on pace to set a new ACC record for free throw shooting futility.

The really interesting thing about Barry Jacobs' look at the worst free throw shooting times of all time is just how many of them are Clemson squads. It's funny, because it does just feel like Clemson should suck at free throws. I guess it feels like that because they so often do. Counting this season, the Tigers have the four worst shooting seasons in ACC history and seven of the worst nine. Seven of the worst nine!

We all know that Clemson has the poorest basketball tradition in the conference, but that doesn't really explain this. It seems to me that free throw shooting is almost orthogonal to overall success. Many crappy players can hit their freebies while guys like Tim Duncan struggle. So what explains Clemson's institutional free throw futility? I can't even think of a good joke for it.

2006 Mid-Season Prouty Ratings

Now that we are at the middle of the ACC season (except for Carolina and Maryland who have still only played seven conference games), it's a good time to take a look at how players are doing. Just like I did last year (here, here and here), I calculated the Prouty Ratings of all ACC players who play at least 15 minutes per game. Since each team has played only eight (or seven) conference games, I'm using the full season stats here. Normally, I like to look at conference-only stats when comparing conference players, but you need more games played to make that fair.

I explained the Prouties a bit in my first post last year with this explanation:

The whole Prouty calculation is this: [{Points / (Field Goals Attempted*2 + FTA)} + {(Points + Assists*2 - Turnovers) / Minutes} + {(Rebounds + Steals + (Blocks/2) - Personal Fouls) / Minutes} + {(Minutes / (TEAM TOTAL Minutes / 5)) * Team Winning Pct} ] / 4

If you look closely, you'll see that there are four main sections. I'll call them Offensive Efficiency (how many points you score per shot), Points Per Minute (how many points you score or help others score per minute), Possessions Per Minute (how many possessions you gain or lose your team per minute) and Win Effect (how responsible you are to your team's win percentage, based on minutes per game).

Before I calculated this year's numbers, I worked out in my head who I thought the current choices for All-ACC should be. If I were voting, I'd select the following five for first team:
J.J. Redick - duh
Shelden Williams - duh again
Tyler Hansbrough - he's really been sensational, particularly in conference games
Craig Smith - quietly putting up monster numbers
Sean Singletary - the best PG in the conference and almost single-handedly lifted Virginia to 4-4.

It gets a bit murkier for second team, but I think you'd have to consider Jared Dudley, Justin Gray (maybe) and Cedric Simmons. For Miami, who do you pick? Same with NC State. Nik Caner-Medley might be a reasonable choice as well. With 12 teams and not too many stand-out stars, it gets tough.

So that's where the stats come in. Without further ado, the top 50 ACC players according to Prouty:

A few observations:

• Chris McCray is ranked #8 in the conference. I think his loss will hurt more than I realized.


• I may have underrated Jared Dudley. If so, it's because he acts like such an ass on the court.


• J.J. Redick's rating is much higher than anyone had the past two years. If he keeps it up, I suspect it would rate with the best ever. (See Kentucky's best ever for a comparison.)


• The highest rated Hokie is Jamon Gordon at 31.


• The highest rated Yellow Jacket is Jeremis Smith at 40.


• Even with their balanced offense, all five of NC State's starters rank in the top 22.


• Reyshawn Terry rates higher than David Noel (and this doesn't even include the Maryland game).


• Robert Hite rates higher than Guillermo Diaz.


• After Al Thornton, the next best Seminole is Isaiah Swann at 34.


• After Sean Singletary, the next best Cav is J.R. Reynolds at 42.

More Calhoun Bashing

A few months ago I linked to a very interesting column from Gregg Doyel savaging UConn coach Jim Calhoun. The article was fascinating because it's so rare for a reporter to be so honest in their feelings about a college coach.

You may recall that a few years ago, Maryland coach Gary Williams went public all but accusing Calhoun of bribing the AAU coach of Rudy Gay. Calhoun paid the coach $50,000 to have an all-star team play UConn in an exhibition game. It was largely because of this controversy that the NCAA changed the rules and said that NCAA schools could not play non-college teams.

Well, now there's this. Jeff Jacobs, a sportswriter for teh Hartford Courant wrote a whole article about his ongoing fued with Calhoun. While I think it might have been poor form to use the newspaper to air his problems with Calhoun, it's equally bad for Calhoun and the Connecticut athletic department to single out and ostracize certain reporters. Worse still, Calhoun physically threatened Jacobs in a press conference. Apparently Jacobs had had enough.

Regardless of what you think about Jacobs' writing the article, you have to agree that he must have felt pretty frustrated to have reached that point. He knew the criticism he would receive by attacking a popular local coach - one with the #1 team in the country.

At least one other local writer has spoken up and taken Jacobs' side.

So what does this all mean? In the long run, probably nothing. Calhoun isn't going anywhere and he'll win this pissing contest. But people shouldn't forget. You have to be a hell of a miserable person to get this many different writers making public personal attacks against you. Writers frequently criticize coaches for their coaching or their handling of discipline, but rarely do they make the generalizations that have been made here. Jim Calhoun must be a special kind of asshole to bring about this many articles bashing him. The only other coaches I can remember being attacked this way are Bobby Knight and Jerry Tarkanian (well, and Dave Bliss, but that was different).

Chase On Prosser

With Wake Forest not just on the decline but in full blown death spiral, I've been thinking a lot of Chris Chase. You see, Chris has always hated Skip Prosser. I thought he was overly hard on Wake's coach the last couple of years, but now I'm seeing that maybe Chris was right all along.

Sadly, I've fallen way behind in reading Chris's hilarious blog. I was certain that a quick persousal would find me some Prosser-bashing.

I was right. Chris takes his most recent shot here, courtesy of a damaging quote from freshman Harvey Hale. Chris previously went after Coach Skip here and here.

Sadly, it's not Chris's funniest stuff, but he does work Keanu Reeves into his criticism. You can never go wrong with Keanu Reeves.

ACC Football Recruiting - Not Good

The football recruiting period for the class of 2006 wrapped up yesterday and the ACC didnt' do very well. At all.

The growth to twelve teams with the addition of football powers Miami and Virginia Tech along with northern school Boston College was supposed to vault the ACC to the top of the national conference rankings. That may still happen, but if this year's recruiting is an indicator, things aren't going as planned.

According to Scout.com, only four ACC programs have top-25 classes. Rivals.com thinks it was even worse - only three teams. Scout.com's rankings. Rivals.com's rankings.

Scout lists FSU as having the best class, but rates them at only #12 nationally. Rivals likes FSU's class better - they have them at #3, but both services agree that no other ACC landed a premier haul.

Of particular interest is how mediocre NC State's and Virginia's classes are. Both schools had been recruiting well, but neither did well this year. Scout has State at #41 while Rivals puts them down at #56. Worse for the Pack, they came in well behind rival UNC (#25 and #30). Further accenting the disparity, Carolina landed 17 in-state recruits while State got only four. Four! Chuck Amato claims that's because it was a down year in the state for talent, but you have to keep the local pipeline lubricated if you want long-term success.

It should be noted that Duke actually did fairly well. Their class is rated #40 and #55, in both cases, better than NC State's.

The News & Observer has an overview along with a listing of each school's classes here.

A Look At The Future

The DBR has a number of interesting recruiting columns up today.

The first is a brief review (and list of links) about a high school game featuring two Duke recruits and two UNC recruits. Of particular interest is the love being given to future Tar Heel point guard Tywon Lawson. From what I read here and what Oak Hill coach Steve Smith has said about him, he's going to be an impact player from day one.

David Glenn says to relax and don't put too much of your life's energy into following recruiting.

And lastly, Paul Hewitt looks to be adding some quality talent to his young (and already talented) team. And it sounds like he's going to make that a habit.

Name That Site 5

It's been a while, but the time has come for Name That Site episode 5. If you remember past editions (one, two, three, four), you'll know that the way this works is that I post a Google Earth image of a significant ACC venue. It may not be a venue on an ACC campus, but it will have some significant history. Your job is to figure out what it is.

If you think you know, leave a comment. I wait a day or so before I reveal the proper answer.

So anyway, here goes. Anyone know what this is (click for larger picture)? (and yes, it's been slightly edited to remove the more obvious hints.)