Dave Sez

Expanded ACC Standings - 2/28/2006

It was a tough week for the ACC. Duke struggled against two weak teams, one a non-conference game, and the bubble teams all played like they didn't want the hassle of booking travel to the NCAAs. Virginia actually deserves credit for stepping up onto the bubble early in the week with a huge win over BC, but they slipped right back on the weekend in Clemson. Maryland continued their post-McCray slide (think maybe it's worth the money to pay someone to walk these chumps to class?) and FSU hurt themselves by dropping one in Blacksburg. The only team that clearly helped their position was Miami, but they only played once and are still a long shot.

But before you get too depressed and concede that the ACC will get only four teams in (and maybe only two good teams), consider this excellent Al Featherston article. If read through the whole thing (and you should), you'll come across this very interesting nugget - since the expansion to 64 teams, no BCS team with 20 wins by Selection Sunday has ever been left out of the tournament. Wow! I had never heard that before. Florida State is sitting at 17-8 with two regular season games remaining. Given how they played in Durham, it's conceivable that they could beat Duke at home, but failing that, they have a good chance to win in Miami. Given their seeding, they'll likely get a pretty weak team in their first ACC Tournament game and if they win, another chance for a win on that Friday. That's a lot of good opportunities to get three more wins. Yeah, it's Florida State and they aren't really known for stepping up and winning when they need to, but their chances are actually better than I thought.

Featherston also points out that, like last year, the bubble is pretty weak this year so some teams with what seems like lacking resumes are going to get in. Why not an ACC team (or two)?

But you didn't click on this to read my ramblings. You want pretty pictures and color and stuff. Here ya go!

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (27-1, 14-0)	prev	1	1	1	1	1	Absolute lock for a 1 seed
	cur	1	1	1	1	1
UNC (19-6, 10-4)	prev	18	12	20	19	17.25	Could sneak into a 3 seed or even higher with a big finish
	cur	12	9	14	13	12
NC State (21-7, 10-5)	prev	12	11	10	18	12.75	Could be anywhere from a 4 to a 6 seed, depending on their ACC Tourney
	cur	17	16	17	34	21
BC (22-6, 9-5)	prev	21	18	17	34	22.5	Same as NC State
	cur	25	19	18	35	24.25
FSU (17-8, 7-7)	prev	30	36	34	60	40	Sneaks in with a 12 seed (and angers talking heads)
	cur	35	39	39	65	44.5
Miami (15-12, 7-7)	prev	58	73	56	72	64.75	NIT
	cur	57	73	55	71	64
Virginia (14-11, 7-7)	prev	70	62	62	71	66.25	NIT
	cur	74	60	59	67	65
Maryland (16-11, 6-8)	prev	44	37	42	45	42	NIT (saving College Park from riots again)
	cur	54	43	47	51	48.75
Clemson (16-11, 5-9)	prev	72	62	66	66	66.5	NIT
	cur	65	56	64	72	64.25
VA Tech (14-13, 4-10)	prev	68	81	82	120	87.75	Team forgotten while fans wonder why Frank Beamer hired Mike O'Cain
	cur	67	80	77	116	85
GA Tech (11-15, 4-11)	prev	101	99	108	141	112.25	Getting ready for Thad Young's one year of college ball
	cur	94	90	106	137	106.75
Wake Forest (14-14, 2-12)	prev	92	92	99	105	97	Prosser can dust off his old copy of The Merchant of Venice
	cur	106	97	100	113	104

The Week That Was - 2/20 - 2/26/2006

02/21/06 Virginia 72, Boston College 58 - Charlottesville, VA
Maybe BC got a bit too lax after winning eight straight ACC games. They certainly didn't play like they respected Virginia in this one and they paid the price. The Cavs led from the opening bucket and looked impressive all the way.

This win produced a sudden surge in excitement in Charlottesville about Virginia's suddenly realistic NCAA Tournament chances. Unfortunately for the Cavs, the week had just begun ...

02/22/06 Duke 73, Georgia Tech 66 - Atlanta, Ga.
Is the pressure getting to Duke and J.J. Redick? They played tight in both games this week as the media pressure surrounding Redick's run at the ACC scoring record grew. Most people, including me, thought Redick would get the points he needed in this game, but he didn't and Duke almost took an L. Fortunately for them, Shelden Williams has been solid all season and kept them in this game.

02/22/06 Miami 70, Virginia Tech 59 - Coral Gables, Fla.
Too little, too late for the Hurricanes, but the win did stop a four-game losing streak.

02/22/06 Wake Forest 74, Clemson 68 (OT) - Winston-Salem, NC
I'm sure before the season Justin Gray envisioned himself hitting clutch threes to save the day for Wake Forest. I doubt he dreamed that those shots would be to force overtime at home against Clemson to help get the Deacs their second ACC win in late February.

02/22/06 North Carolina 95, NC State 71 - Raleigh, N.C.
Oof. I wrote last week that Carolina might well be the ACC's second best team. Of course, that implied that I thought they were better than both Boston College and NC State, the two teams above them in the standings. I think I was right.

I also wrote last week about the pressure on Herb Sendek to win this game. He's built State up in recent years and beaten back the howling wolves, but getting your ass kicked by the boys in light blue on your home court isn't the way to keep the critics away. Consider Herb's seat maybe not hot, but certainly warm.

02/22/06 Florida State 71, Maryland 60 - Tallahassee, Fla.
This was an official NCAA Tournament elimination game and congrats to the Terrapins who won elimination. It's not easy feat to miss out on the NCAA Tournament two years in a row with a roster full of high school all-Americans, but the Terps are in the process of doing it. Could they right the ship in their next game in Chapel Hill? (snicker)

02/25/06 Georgia Tech 76, Wake Forest 61 - Atlanta, GA
Wheee! It's hard to remember, but this was a big game last year!

02/25/06 Clemson 90, Virginia 64 - Clemson, SC
Ouch. Double ouch. That's what you get when you are a mediocre, but over-achieving team and you get too full of yourself. Virginia may have gotten too excited about their outside NCAA chances and forgotten that they still need to win several games to realize that possibility. Nothing says NIT like a 26-point loss to Clemson in February.

02/25/06 Duke 74, Temple 66 - Philadelphia, PA
Like I said, something's wrong with Duke. Maybe it was the attention on Redick. Maybe it's just the late-season doldrums. Or maybe it's fatigue from being at or near #1 all season while not using the bench very much. I suspect the Devils will play better this week, but Duke fans should be at least mildly concerned.

Congrats to J.J. Redick for finally claiming the ACC scoring title late in this game. He didn't get it in the manner that many would have liked, but it's his now nonetheless.

02/25/06 Boston College 74, NC State 72 (2OT) - Raleigh, N.C.
Pretty much by definition, an overtime game is exciting. A double-overtime game is thrilling.

But what about an overtime game where each team scores just four points? And if that was cringe-worthy, what about a second OT period where the winning team outscores the loser 3-1? Are you kidding? One point in overtime? Five points in two overtimes?

It was a bad week for the top league teams. Duke barely beat two weak teams. BC was spanked by Virginia and NC State lost two games.

02/25/06 Virginia Tech 72, Florida State 61 - Blacksburg, Va.
And it was a bad week for the bubble teams as well. FSU really could have put themselves in good position with a win in Blacksburg, but they couldn't pull it off. And is anyone surprised? Florida State never seems to be able to make things easy for themselves.

This was a good, solid win for the Hokies, a team that could have packed things in by now. It's been a long, difficult season, but clearly they are still fighting. That's a good sign for Seth Greenberg.

02/26/06 North Carolina 81, Maryland 57 - Chapel Hill, N.C.
Now that Roy Williams won his national championship, Gary Williams can't really use his same argument for not being "the other Williams." Maybe instead he should be "the Williams whose team of experienced players was clearly much less organized or motivated than the one full of freshman and inexperienced upperclassmen coached by the other Williams." Or is that too long? Maybe it should just be the "good Williams" and the "bad Williams." It's not that Gary Williams is a bad coach, he's clearly earned the benefit of the doubt, but he's doing a bad job with this team and he did last year as well. I think he's better suited to being the underdog and getting to the top of the mountain maybe just changed things too much. A couple of years of failure might help that.

There was never a point in this game, a game in which the Heels turned the ball over 17 times and shot just 41%, that it felt like Maryland might win. Sure they trimmed the lead a few times, but Carolina always quickly squashed the rebellion and the Terps seemed content to leave it at that. "Well, we tried." It was a bit sad, really.

Stealing From Blogs

It was bound to happen eventually. There is a lot of competition in the world of sports reporting. There are a lot of news sources and only so many stories. On top of that, you have the explosion of sports blogs in the past couple of years and it was inevitable that some chump with a paycheck would eventually steal from a blogger.

Now, I'll admit that the evidence in this case isn't rock solid, but it's pretty close. The guy may not have plagiarized the actual words of the article in question, but the topic certainly appears stolen, especially when you consider that it's the second such "coincidence."

It's a good thing I don't write well enough to be stolen from.

Getting Carried Away

Thanks to the guys at ACC BasketBlog for reminding me that I wanted to write about this.

Motivated by J.J. Redick's run at the ACC scoring record, Caulton Tudor of the Raleigh News & Observer wrote a piece this weekend on the greatest ACC backcourt and frontcourt players. To get right to the point, his list angered me.

I was mildly amused when he put Redick at #4, ahead of the much better Johnny Dawkins (don't confuse the difference between points and overall quality).

But while I thought his guard list was a bit out of whack, I was outraged at his list of big men. Ralph Sampson, one of only three players to win national player of the year three times, didn't crack Tudor's top five! Listen, I loved Shane Battier. Hell of a player, but would anyone, anyone, take him over Tim Duncan or Ralph Sampson? Are you serious? Would you take Battier over Grant Hill, Len Bias, James Worthy and Antawn Jamison?

And let me say this about Lennie Rosenbluth, Tudor's #3, he may well have been a great player, but I immediately discount any player who played in the all-white era. A blind man can see that basketball without black players just isn't the same game. Maybe Rosenbluth would have dominated in any era, but we'll never know, so I'm going to assume that his numbers are vastly inflated (and he was only a 1st team All-American once even then). If you took all of the black players out the ACC now, Nik Caner-Medley would probably be first team All-ACC!

If you want to see a much better list of ACC greats, check out Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's effort. I think he too is forgetting some guys, but it's not an easy task. He certainly gave it more thought than Tudor did.

Why Sports Are Great

You've probably seen this by now, but I'll risk an obvious post for this story. An autistic kid served as his high school basketball team's manager for several years. It was a great job for him, as he loved basketball and loved being around it. In the last game of the season, the decided to reward the young man's hard work by letting him suit up. With four minutes left in the game, which was already decided, the coach decided to send him in. All of his teammates tried to get him some points, but he missed his first two tries. Then, he got "hot as a pistol." One after another, shots started falling until he had hit six consecutive three-pointers and scored 20 points. Watch the clip. Trust me.

It's getting a little dusty in here, isn't it?

Alternate source here.

Simmons At The NBA All-Star Game

I'm sure you've all ready this by now, but bear with me. I hardly ever make it over to the World Wide Leader's website anymore. When I do, it's usually to read a Bill Simmons column and this one about his visit to the NBA All-Star game is a great one. In particular his stories about running into Charles Oakley and Michael Jordan are fantastic.

The closest I've ever come to having similar stories is seeing Chuck Nevitt at a 3-on-3 tournament in Cary a few years back. Not really the same thing, is it?

Featherston On Redick And Morrison

This J.J. Redick versus Adam Morrison race really has been remarkable. In my history of following college basketball, I can only recall one player from a major school leading the nation in scoring - Glenn Robinson of Purdue (to be fair, I didn't even remember that he led the nation until this Featherston article). There were a couple of other All-American-type players from smaller schools - Hersey Hawkins and Lionel Simmons, but generally national scoring leaders are unknown players from unknown schools. It's just normally contraindacitive to have a great team and one guy scoring so many points.

But this year we have J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison. Both great players at great programs on teams having great seasons. Duke is #1 and Gonzaga is #5.

It's incredible really.

On top of that, I've found myself really enjoying watching Redick climb the list of the ACC's all-time scorers. I didn't realize just why I was liking it so much (other than the pleasure of watching a player compete at such a high level for a whole season) until I read Al Featherston's piece on the two scorers. He points out that as Redick moves up the list, we get to remember and reflect on those past great players. That's it! This season has been not just about the present, but the past. I've found myself reminiscing about past Virginia greats Curtis Staples and Bryant Stith as well as some of my favorite ACC players, like Johnny Dawkins. I loved watching Dawkins play - he was so smooth and fast.

So, even if you're getting tired of the Redick and Morrison hype, read Featherston's article. As always, he does a great job of looking into the past to explain the present.

The Week To Be - 2/21 - 2/27/2006

02/21/06 Boston College @ Virginia - Charlottesville, Va. RSN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
(I'm going to pretend that this game hasn't happened yet and write what I planned on writing before the game. My thoughts about the actual game will go in the comments.)
This game doesn't really have any particular meaning, but that probably goes to Virginia's advantage. Virginia actually matches up well with BC because they have opposite strengths. BC will win inside and if UVA can win outside, they have a real chance

(See, I'm a real Nostradamus.)

02/22/06 Duke @ Georgia Tech - Atlanta, Ga. ESPN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
This one could get ugly. The one redeeming aspect of this game is a big one though - J.J. Redick will very likely break the all-time ACC scoring record here. He needs 31 and that's pretty much an average game for him these days. Believe me, he, his coaches and his teammates are very aware of how many points he needs. Late against Miami, they ran a few set plays to try to spring him for a three so he could catch Johnny Dawkins. Look for that again tonight.

02/22/06 Virginia Tech @ Miami - Coral Gables, Fla. ESPNU (XM 193) 7:00 PM
The Hurricanes should win by a touchdown, but keep an eye out for a big play from the special teams.

02/22/06 Clemson @ Wake Forest - Winston-Salem, NC (XM 192) 7:00 PM
Don't put the kids to bed early tonight! Set your TiVo!!! This one's gonna be a classic!

Actually, the game does have some meaning, as it's Wake Forest's best, last chance for a second ACC win. Go team.

02/22/06 North Carolina @ NC State - Raleigh, N.C. RJ* (XM 192) 9:00 PM
Herb Sendek has very slowly but steadily built up the NC State program to the point where I think he's finally won over the majority of Wolfpack supports. Even his most ardent detractors would have to admit that things have been getting better over the past 4-5 seasons. Sure, they'd rather see greatness than very goodness, but there's no denying that things are headed in the right direction.

But here's the catch. There are always two measures of success at State - how a team does overall (winning percentage, NCAA tournament success, bowl games, etc) and how the team does against UNC. Les Robinson was an awful basketball coach, but he somehow kept beating much better Carolina teams and he ended up coaching a year or two more than he should have. Mike O'Cain was a pretty good football coach, but he couldn't beat the Tar Heels, so he was shown the door. Chuck Amato came in, beat the Heels right away and was an instant star. His light shined even brighter, because he came just when Carolina was hitting a deep slump. Unfortunately for Chuckles, the Heels have (somewhat) righted themselves and have beaten his teams twice in a row now. Any surprise that the Wolfpack nation is no longer in love with the Chest?

A few years back, when Carolina was crumbling under the iron fist of Matt Doherty, State fans were cautiously optimistic that Sendek could take advantage and overtake his rivals. And he did. For a couple of years. Things reverted back to normal last year and it looks like the future will be just like the past. But this year, State has the better team. Or at least, they should. They have better, more experienced players. But that didn't produce a win in Chapel Hill. If it doesn't produce a win in Raleigh tonight, all of Sendek's slow wood chopping might just amount to a pile of kindling.

02/22/06 Maryland @ Florida State - Tallahassee, Fla. RJ* (XM 191) 9:00 PM
Now, this is an interesting game. Consider it an elimination game. A first round tourney game, if you will (and I know you will). The winner keeps its NCAA Tournament hopes alive, while the other prints up NIT tickets. Sure, the loser could still go with a late hot streak, but that's probably not going to happen. Hell, the winner's not guaranteed of anything either, but you better believe that they'd both rather be 7-6 than 6-7.

It should be pretty damn fun for those of you who get to see it.

02/25/06 Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech - Atlanta, GA ABC (XM 192) 1:00 PM
One team is young, talented and aggressive but not too productive. The other is experienced, talented and somnolent but not too productive.

I'm going with the young guys.

02/25/06 Virginia @ Clemson - Clemson, SC (XM 193) 2:00 PM
If UVA wins this game, they'll assure themselves of at least a .500 ACC record. On top of that, their RPI will probably climb into the low 50's. Shhhhhh.

02/25/06 Duke @ Temple - Philadelphia, PA ESPN (XM 191) 2:30 PM
Temple's not exactly having a great season, but you never feel too comfortable playing them. The A-10 is really, really weak this year, so this game won't really have much impact on the ACC's overall strength. Well, unless Duke loses. But that's not going to happen. Temple has scored in the 50's four of their last five games. You can't score 50 and beat Duke unless we are only talking about the first half.

02/25/06 Boston College @ NC State - Raleigh, N.C. CBS (XM 192) 3:45 PM
Two big home games for the Wolfpack this week! State completely took BC apart in their first meeting, running their offense to perfection. My guess is that after BC's loss last night, they'll be a bit more fired up for this one. I still think State matches up well with them though. Simmons can guard Smith inside and BC doesn't play good enough perimeter defense. State's guards will find a lot of daylight to shoot their threes.

02/25/06 Florida State @ Virginia Tech - Blacksburg, Va. ESPNU (XM 191) 7:00 PM
An absolute must win for the Seminoles. The Hokies are pretty much only playing for pride at this point, but given the NIT's new rules, that tournament is not out of the question. After starting 0-6 in the conference, Tech is 3-3 in their last six games. This will be no pushover for the Noles. In fact, I bet the Hokies take it.

02/26/06 Maryland @ North Carolina - Chapel Hill, N.C. FSN (XM 191) 5:30 PM
I'm really looking forward to this game, but that's mainly because I'm going to be in the Dean Dome. The Terps really need a late signature win and this is the only game on their schedule that offers them that chance. The thing is, I don't think they're going to get it done. Not in the Dome this year. The Terps are just too damn inconsistent and disorganized. The Heels defensive pressure will cause problems for Maryland who often finds it hard to score if Nik Caner-Medley isn't hitting jumpers.

Expanded ACC Standings - 2/21/2006

It wasn't a good week for the ACC bubble teams. Maryland and Virginia both slipped in almost every poll while Miami and Florida State basically spun their wheels. For Miami and UVA, their only chance was to make some big gains in the final few weeks of the season, and that didn't happen this week. Maryland loss to Clemson dropped them from a high bubble team to a low one. Florida State sort of treaded water in most of the computer polls, but somehow impressed the RPI enough to bump them up seven notches. They still have some work to do in that department, but if just winning the games they should win and losing the ones they should will keep them moving up, then they should feel pretty safe.

That FSU bump is yet another piece of evidence that the RPI is a crappy rating system. I mean, they lost on the road - fairly convincingly - to a good NC State team and then won at home - also fairly convincingly - against a mediocre Virginia team. Neither outcome was unusual or unexpected in any way. The power ratings reflected that; the Noles dropped two spots in the Pomeroy ratings, but stayed the same in both Sagarin and Greenfield. The RPI however really liked that week and jumped them from 67 to 60. Miami had a similar week, losing at home to UNC and on the road at Duke, but yet jumped 10 spots in the RPI!

I just don't get why the NCAA uses that system.

And now for the standings ...

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (25-1, 13-0)	prev	1	1	1	1	1	Absolute lock for a 1 seed
	cur	1	1	1	1	1
NC State (21-5, 10-3)	prev	17	15	15	21	17	Either a 3 or 4 seed
	cur	12	11	10	18	12.75
UNC (17-6, 8-4)	prev	19	16	21	23	19.75	A dangerous 4 or 5 seed
	cur	18	12	20	19	17.25
BC (21-5, 8-4)	prev	20	19	20	29	22	Either a 5 or 6 seed
	cur	21	18	17	34	22.5
FSU (16-7, 6-6)	prev	28	36	34	67	41.25	Strong 10 seed
	cur	30	36	34	60	40
Maryland (16-9, 6-6)	prev	36	34	40	41	37.75	9 seed or NIT
	cur	44	37	42	45	42
Virginia (13-10, 6-6)	prev	65	62	55	56	59.5	NIT and happy
	cur	70	62	62	71	66.25
Miami (14-12, 6-7)	prev	58	73	52	82	66.25	NIT, but could finish .500 and get shut out
	cur	58	73	56	72	64.75
Clemson (15-10, 4-8)	prev	81	71	73	73	74.5	Squeaks into NIT
	cur	72	62	66	66	66.5
VA Tech (13-12, 3-9)	prev	63	81	76	114	83.5	Catching up on missed episodes of Lost
	cur	68	81	82	120	87.75
GA Tech (10-14, 3-10)	prev	104	100	109	136	112.25	Paul Hewitt can go shopping for some more gold ties
	cur	101	99	108	141	112.25
Wake Forest (13-13, 1-11)	prev	89	89	93	109	95	Eric Williams falls asleep during NBA workout.
	cur	92	92	99	105	97

The Week That Was - 2/13 - 2/19/2006

First off, a site note. I, and others, normally comment on games during the week in the "The Week To Be" threads. So, sometimes what I write here is redundant and other times I am just brief because I already discussed a game in that previous thread. Feel free to jump in and say what you want about any games. There are lots of people reading this site these days and it shouldn't be hard to get a conversation started.

02/13/06 Boston College 59, Stony Brook 47 - Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Can anyone explain why this game happened? There's really no good excuse for it.

02/14/06 Clemson 89, Maryland 77 - Clemson, SC
A torpedo right in the side of Maryland's NCAA chances. Kinda like the losses to Clemson last year, huh? The Terps aren't dead yet, but this one hurts. They need a big win to offset it. At Chapel Hill is their best opportunity. Coincidently, I'll be at that game, my first live game in a couple of years.

02/14/06 Duke 93, Wake Forest 70 - Durham, NC
Remember when this game meant something? Like, last year.

02/15/06 NC State 86, Florida State 64 - Raleigh, N.C.
A good, solid win for NC State. Honestly, considering how the season has been going and how they took care of things early, this might have been their best win of the year. For FSU, while this loss was expected, they can't afford too many more if they are going to go dancing.

02/15/06 Virginia 91, Longwood University 56 - Charlottesville, Va.
Unlike BC, Virginia has a pretty defensible position here. They were supposed to be bad this year - Wake Forest bad - so a scheduled win late in the year made some sense. Unfortunately for the Cavs (well, fortunately, but you know what I mean) they actually have outside NCAA chances, so a game like this is bad. Even a win likely hurts their computer numbers.

02/15/06 North Carolina 82, Georgia Tech 75 - Chapel Hill, N.C.
Tyler Hansbrough's performance in this game will enter UNC lore. Folks will bring it up years for now.

02/16/06 Boston College 65, Miami 54 - Chestnut Hill, Mass
A tree fell in a forest and no one noticed.

02/18/06 NC State 70, Virginia Tech 64 - Blacksburg, Va.
I still haven't decided - is it good that NC State just keeps on winning or is it bad that they seem to be incapable of winning games comfortably? Which attribute will be more important come NCAA Tournament time? My head says that they are playing with fire too much and are going to get burned, but my heart says that this is a team that just knows how to win. It'll be interesting to see.

02/18/06 Florida State 76, Virginia 62 - Tallahassee, Fla.
Exactly what the Seminoles needed. Virginia is dangerous and you can't let them stick around, not in a game like this that FSU absolutely had to have. Andrew Wilson hit seven threes and then headed out to Ryan's for the Early Bird special and some tapioca pudding.

02/18/06 Maryland 87, Georgia Tech 84 (OT) - College Park, Md.
Whew! Man, those Yellow Jackets are scaring the crap out of teams up and down the ACC. Sadly for them, they aren't actually beating too many teams. Good thing for the Terps, because another loss would have pretty much eliminated them from NCAA consideration. As for now, they are still alive, but the Machine That Goes Bing! is barely binging.

02/19/06 North Carolina 83, Wake Forest 72 - Winston-Salem, N.C.
Is Carolina now the second best team in the ACC? They sure look like it. As I expected, Wake Forest came out hungry and aggressive in this one. The Deacons actually played pretty good defense for much of the game, but this time it was their offense that deserted them. When the Heels clamped down on D in the second half, as they are making a habit of doing, Wake went cold.

For Wake, it's hard to think of what they have to play for now. The only game left that might get their attention is their last one, Senior Day with NC State as the guests. I'm guessing they win either that one or Clemson at home to finish the year 2-14.

02/19/06 Duke 92, Miami 71 - Durham, N.C.
Miami did two very good things in this game and one very bad one.

First, they employed a 2-3 zone defense in the middle of the first half and it completely flummoxed Duke. I'm not sure anyone's dared try that against Redick and company this year, but damn if it didn't work. Confused, the Blue Devils turned the ball over a bunch and the Hurricanes got right back into the game.

Second, they attacked Duke off the dribble (like everyone does) and then pulled up in the lane to avoid challenging Shelden Williams. Duke's guards just couldn't stay in front of the Hurricanes. I actually felt bad for Greg Paulus a few times when Guillermo Diaz turned him into a pretzel.

But they had one problem. I'm guessing before the game, Frank Haith and staff pointed out that Duke tends to rely on their shooting guard for points. Wears number 4. Well, about a minute and a half into the game, J.J. Redick already had 8 points. He hit another three about a minute later. It looked for a while there like he might catch Johnny Dawkins by halftime and then go ahead and get Dickie Hemric in the second. The dude is really, really good.

Beating Around The Bubble

Way back on January first, StateFans Nation wrote an excellent post looking at how the RPI affects bubble teams. They looked at every season back to 1999 and found that basically if you are in a power conference and have an RPI of 35 or better, you're in (duh). If you have an RPI between 36 and 45, you have a slightly better than 50% chance. Slip to 46 to 55 and your likelihood drops to about 30%. If you're 56 or over, you still have a shot, but it's mightly slim.

Nice work, fellas.

Roanoke Riflemen

As you've probably heard, last night J.J. Redick broke the NCAA record for career three-pointers. The man whose record he broke, Virginia's Curtis Staples, was actually in the house to watch the title switch hands (does anyone know how or why that came to be? Did Staples have to transfer a title belt or something?) During the game, Billy Packer pointed something out that I had never thought about before - Staples and Redick both grew up in Roanoke, Virginia.

On top of that, the number five all-time shooter, Doug Day is from Blacksburg and played at nearby Radford University.

Weird, huh? I can't explain what it is about southwest Virginia that creates these shooters. Maybe it's the mountains - number three all-time shooter Keith Veney played at Marshall in West Virginia.

p.s. Have I ever mentioned that I was born in Radford, VA? That must explain my silky-smooth stroke.

p.p.s. Check number four on that list. It's active player Keydren Clark of St. Peter's. It's possible that Redick may gain and then lose two career NCAA marks this year - three-pointers made and career free throw percentage (Missouri State junior Blake Ahearn will pass J.J. once he gets enough attempts to qualify).

Valentine's Day Wishes From Chris

Chris Chase has just what you need to make your Valentine's Day just a little sweeter.

The Adam Morrison mustache bit is particularly inspired.

The Week To Be - 2/13 - 2/19/2006

02/13/06 Boston College 59, Stony Brook 47 - Chestnut Hill, Mass. (XM 191) 7:00 PM
Hey BC, you're not in the Big East anymore. We don't play on Monday nights around here.

02/14/06 Maryland @ Clemson - Clemson, SC RJ* (XM 191) 8:00 PM
Maryland really needs this game to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Wait, didn't I write that same thing a few times last year? Remember how it turned out then?

02/14/06 Wake Forest @ Duke - Durham, NC RJ* (XM 192) 8:00 PM
This won't hurt a bit, Wake. Just lie down and take what's coming to ya.

02/15/06 Florida State @ NC State - Raleigh, N.C. ESPNU (XM 193) 7:00 PM
Hmmm. Interesting. Florida State sure could use a marquee win to bolster their resume and here's an opportunity right here. State seems to have a problem with aggressive, athletic teams. And FSU sure is athletic. If they can be aggressive and hit some shots, they could absolutely take this game. If that happens, I suspect State fans won't still be understanding.

02/15/06 Longwood @ Virginia - Charlottesville, Va. (XM 192) 7:00 PM
Did you know that 1980's NBA dunk contest sleeper Jerome Kersey went to Longwood University? Yeah well, I'm pretty sure they don't have anyone like that right now.

02/15/06 Georgia Tech @ North Carolina - Chapel Hill, N.C. ESPN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
The Heels better be careful here. North Carolina is coming into their own, but they are young and might be fooled by Georgia Tech's record. They shouldn't be. The Yellow Jackets can play. Sometimes.

Keep an eye on this one to see if Carolina has graduated from being a good team to a very good team (very good teams take care of bidness at home against lesser foes).

02/16/06 Miami @ Boston College - Chestnut Hill, Mass. RSN (XM 191) 7:00 PM
The John Swofford Classic!

02/18/06 NC State @ Virginia Tech - Blacksburg, Va. ABC (XM 191) 1:00 PM
Man, State has two trap games this week, don't they?

Sadly, Coleman Collins' father passed away on Monday. Don't be surprised if the team rallies around him in this game.

02/18/06 Virginia @ Florida State - Tallahassee, Fla. RJ* (XM 192) 4:00 PM
Can the Cavaliers keep it going? They lost to Florida State at home, but not before going to overtime. As I mentioned above, Florida State needs to win this one. It wouldn't shock me if they beat State on the road and then came home to lose this one.

02/18/06 Georgia Tech @ Maryland - College Park, Md. RJ* (XM 193) 4:00 PM
Despite their loss to Duke, I think Maryland has turned the corner. They've gotten over the loss of McCray and are playing better. Maybe they can't be as good as they could have been with McCray, but they still have enough players to be a Sweet Sixteen team. They should take this one.

02/19/06 North Carolina @ Wake Forest - Winston-Salem, N.C. ABC (XM 191) 1:30 PM
Can Wake muster the effort to beat their rival? Something tells me that they can. I'd be surprised if you don't see a dangerous Deacon team in this one.

02/19/06 Miami @ Duke Durham, N.C. FSN (XM 192) 5:30 PM
Duke is susceptible to teams that attack off the dribble, and Miami sort of does that. Diaz is great off the dribble and Hite and Harris are OK. I think Hite would rather come off curls and shoot jumpers though. I don't think they're organized enough to attack Duke's defense though and they have no answer for Shelden Williams inside (did you see Hansbrough carve them up inside the other night?).

Quin Snyder's Greatest Hits

And I'm not talking about "Eye Of The Tiger."

The Zou, a Mizzou blog (get it?) runs down the impressive list of lowlights of pretty-boy Quin Snyder's career in Columbia.

Yeah, it was a rough ride, but at least he can fall back on modeling (I mean look at that picture! Do you think the photographer asked him to make love to the camera? Ooooh, yes Quin, baby! You're sexy! You're an animal. Click. Click. I love it! Now, growl at me. You're a tiger! Click. Click.) or maybe selling hair product.

Expanded ACC Standings

It's getting to be the time of year when you can start to seriously evaluate teams' postseason chances. With about a month of play left to determine things, it's still a bit early for some teams, but we can certainly tell who the significant players are.

With that in mind, I'm reviving a feature I started last year where I look at several different computer ratings, including the RPI, and see how the ACC teams stack up. I use non-RPI ratings for two main reasons. First, the RPI just isn't a very good system and second, because if you look at past history, other computer ratings systems have been as effective or even more effective than the RPI in finding NCAA tournament teams. Remember, the RPI is only one tool that the selection committee uses. All of the other factors they weigh, overall record, good wins, bad losses, late season surges/slumps, etc. are factored into any good computer rating. Plus, there's nothing that says they don't crack open a USA Today and look at Sagarin's numbers.

So anyway, here is a table of the ACC teams and how they are doing. Starting next week, I'll have current and previous numbers in there along with an arrow showing if the team is rising or falling. For this week, I pointed the arrow the way I think the teams are going.

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (23-1, 11-0)	prev						Absolute lock for a 1 seed
	cur	1	1	1	1	1
NC State (19-5, 8-3)	prev						Either a 3 or a 4 seed
	cur	17	15	15	21	17
BC (19-5, 7-4)	prev						Either a 3 or a 4 seed
	cur	20	19	20	29	22
UNC (15-6, 6-4)	prev						Probably a 4 or 5 seed
	cur	19	16	21	23	19.75
Miami (14-10, 6-5)	prev						Just misses out on NCAA
	cur	58	73	52	82	66.25
Virginia (12-9, 6-5)	prev						NIT and happy
	cur	65	62	55	56	59.5
FSU (15-6, 5-5)	prev						Strong 10 seed
	cur	28	36	34	67	41.25
Maryland (15-8, 5-5)	prev						9 seed
	cur	36	34	40	41	37.75
VA Tech (13-11, 3-8)	prev						Watching spring football
	cur	63	81	76	114	83.5
Clemson (14-10, 3-8)	prev						Squeaks into NIT
	cur	81	71	73	73	74.5
GA Tech (10-12, 3-8)	prev						Looking forward to next year
	cur	104	100	109	136	112.25
Wake Forest (13-11, 1-9)	prev						Turmoil
	cur	89	89	93	109	95

Father Flanagan Still Has Spots

A couple of years ago, I wrote an article about Oklahoma State's Eddie Sutton. At the time he had just offered a scholarship to former Tar Heel recruit JamesOn Curry (who as you might remember, lost his opportunity to play for UNC when he was busted for selling drugs).

In that article I used the line "I'm not so sure a leopard can really change his spots."

It seems I may have been right. Sutton just took a leave of absence for the rest of the season after injuring himself in a car wreck. After the accident, Sutton was charged with DUI. One choice quote from that ESPN article:

Witnesses told police that shortly before the accident, Sutton was unsteady on his feet and struck his head after falling in the parking lot of Gallagher-Iba Arena before entering his vehicle, Stillwater police said Saturday.

The key part of this to me is the way that Sutton was handled by the media when his team made the 2004 Final Four. At that time, the media tripped over each other to write glowing articles about the man. One of the key angles they covered was a handy way to get around his serious NCAA troubles at Kentucky - he was a recovering alcoholic. It was made clear that he had confronted his demons and won. If there's one thing Americans love, it's a recovered scoundrel. Great stuff! Plus, it's just tacky to attack a man for being an alcoholic, so that allowed them to write great things about him without paying much attention to his past cheating.

Now don't get me wrong, I think Eddie Sutton is a great basketball coach. I love the way his teams play and clearly he has a great side to him, because those who get to know him seem to really love him. But to me once a cheater, always a cheater. And a cheater is no different than a liar (and addicts make great liars). Let's just say I'm not shocked to find out that the stories of him being dry and squeaky clean might not be 100% true.

The Week(end) That Was 2/11 - 2/12/2006

02/11/06 Duke 96, Maryland 88 - College Park, Md.
I wrote that Maryland would have to come out and play with the passion that they showed late against Virginia, and they did. But it still wasn't enough. Unfortunately for them, I think Duke played their most complete offensive game of the year, getting points from a bunch of different players. Maryland's only obvious failing was some shoddy interior defense at times. They gave up a few too many dunks and layups, but considering who they were playing and how well that team played, an eight-point loss isn't too shabby.

Now they just need to keep it up or they're gonna miss the Tournament again.

02/11/06 Wake Forest 59, Charlotte 56 - Winston-Salem, N.C.
Good for Wake. They needed something good to happen. Oddly enough, they won with Justin Gray scoring only 4 points.

One thing I learned when I read about this game is that Charlotte is now in the Atlantic 10. I did not know that. I guess the A-10 ain't so good this year, because Charlotte was hot coming into this one.

02/11/06 Virginia 81, Virginia Tech 77 (OT) - Charlottesville, Va.
The Cavaliers keep it going and now have a season sweep of their in-state rivals. I had to watch this one via GameTracker and it was brutal.

The weird stat in this one? UVA point guard Sean Singletary took 19 shots and had no assists. Shooting guard J.R. Reynolds took 13 shots and had 12 assists.

02/11/06 Boston College 67, Clemson 61 - Boston, MA
The Tigers made the Eagles sweat on their home court, but couldn't close the deal. Craig Smith had another sub-par performance, with 11 points and 7 rebounds.

02/12/06 Georgia Tech 71, NC State 68 - Atlanta, Ga.
I was sure that the NC State message boards would be aflame after this one - The Sky Is Falling! The Sky Is Falling! But, they were surprisingly (and disappointingly) reasonable about the result. NC State fan - I hardly know you anymore.

The Pack faithful took the right attitude here though. While GT had lost 8 in a row, they are not a bad team. In fact, they have several very good players. I particularly like Ra'Sean Dickey and Jeremis Smith down low - two big, strong athletes. I do wonder how Anthony Morrow leads that team in scoring though. Every time I've watched them play, he's done nothing.

For State, they just need to learn how to play hard every game. They were almost always a step slow in this game and while they kept it close, couldn't make the big play at the end this time. If they played as hard in every game as they do in their biggest games, they'd be a borderline top-ten squad.

02/12/06 Florida State 73, UMass 63 - Tallahassee, Fla.
I really thought the Seminoles were going to blow this one. I'm glad I was wrong, as the Noles represent the ACC's possible fifth or sixth NCAA team.

02/12/06 North Carolina 80, Miami 70 - Coral Gables, Fla.
Miami was doing great in the second half. They had eliminated the big Tar Heel lead and in fact, had the lead at times. Guillermo Diaz was hot and was dominating the Heels. No one could stay in front of him. Then, Frank Haith took Diaz out at about the 12 minute mark - Diaz was breathing pretty hard - and that was that. By the time Diaz got back in, the Hurricanes had relaxed and never again seemed to threaten. Diaz simply disappeared until he hit a Jordanesque reverse when the game was all but over.

I still don't understand why that team's not better. they have Diaz, who has All-American talent, Robert Hite, who has the best stats on the team, point guard Anthony Harris and big man Anthony King who has two or three pretty plays each game (but yet only scores 9 ppg), they should be a top-25 squad. When those upperclassmen leave, I predict bad things for this program.

For the Heels, it was a nice win. Reyshawn Terry (the best Ray-Shawn in the league) continues to play like I've never seen him before. Sometime about a week or two ago, for some reason, a light switch flipped for him. He's playing hard on both ends of the floor and doing things he's never done before. He's made the team so much tougher by taking pressure off of Hansbrough and David Noel, who can't handle being the #2 scorer.

Set Your TiVo

I just checked my TiVo's schedule of upcoming events and saw a couple of shows in there that you might not want to miss. Next Thursday, 2/16, at 2pm, ESPN Classic is airing the great 1992 Duke-Kentucky game, also known as the Laettner game. This is the NCAA Regional Final game where Laettner stomped (stepped, really) on the chest of Kentucky's Aminu Timberlake and hit every shot he took including the classic game-winner that we've all seen a million times. This is one the few games in my life where I can remember vividly where I was and who I was with when I watched it. I'm getting fired up just thinking about seeing it again.

And if that's not enough, the very next day, 2/17, at 2pm ESPN Classic is airing the 1991 Duke-UNLV Final Four game. The Kentucky game from 1992 rightly gets a lot of attention and is called possibly the greatest college basketball game ever, but don't forget this 1991 game. For the youngsters, UNLV had one of the most powerful and dominant college teams ever. They steamrolled Duke by 30 points in the 1990 NCAA Championship and then cruised through the 1991 nearly unchallenged. They played a fairly weak schedule, but blew everyone out, with the exception of Arkansas, who was also in (or near, really) their heyday. Duke got their chance for revenge in the 1991 Final Four and most thought it would end just like their previous matchup. But Bobby Hurley and Christian Laettner had grown up quite a bit in their junior year (and they now had a freshman named Grant Hill) and they went on to pull off one of the great upsets of college basketball history. It's funny to think of it that way since those 1991 and 1992 Duke title teams are considered some of the best teams ever, but that just tells you how good that UNLV squad, with Stacey Augmon, Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Moses Scurry, Richard "The Fixer" Perry and Anderson Hunt, was.

I am pumped to watch these games. ESPN Classic is the shizzle.

The Weekend To Be 2/11 - 2/12/2006

02/11/06 Duke @ Maryland - College Park, Md. CBS (XM 191) 1:00 PM
If you watched Maryland beat Virginia the other night, you saw two completely different Maryland teams - the one that played the first 32 minutes and the one that played the final 8. How they do in this game will depend entirely on which team shows up. Sure, they got hot late in the game against the Cavs, but it was their overall effort, particularly on the defensive boards that really made the difference. Sometimes when you take care of all the little things like fighting through screens and boxing out, the more obvious stuff like hitting jumpers just happens.

Do you think Gary is excited about all of the negative attention being paid to Duke in regards to officiating? Couldn't come at a better time for his team.

I guess it goes without saying, but this one could be an upset. Or, if the first-half-against-Virginia Terp team shows up, a blowout.

02/11/06 UNC Charlotte @ Wake Forest - Winston-Salem, N.C. ABC (XM 192) 3:30 PM
Seriously, it's getting hard to watch Wake play this year. It's like watching an alcoholic slowly drink himself to death. I don't think anyone in Deacon-land would complain if they just canceled the rest of this season.

02/11/06 Virginia Tech @ Virginia - Charlottesville, Va. RJ* (XM 192) 8:00 PM
A rivalry game! Well, almost. Maybe in another five or ten years this will really feel like a big game to Virginia fans. I can't say for sure, but I'm guessing it's already big for the Hokies. For Virginia though, Carolina has always been the most hated basketball rival, with Duke and Maryland as close alternates.

The winner of this one keeps their NIT hopes alive.

02/11/06 Clemson @ Boston College - Boston, MA RJ* (XM 193) 8:00 PM
Remember a few weeks ago when Clemson was 11-0? I think I wrote about how they always start that way and it's always a mirage. Well guess what?

On the flip side, BC's 0-3 ACC start is a distant memory and if you look at their remaining ACC schedule, it's easy to see them losing no more than one more conference game. They certainly won't lose this one.

02/12/06 NC State @ Georgia Tech - Atlanta, Ga. RJ (XM 191) 1:00 PM
Eight losses in a row for Georgia Tech. And counting. Their next four games? State at home, at UNC, at Maryland and home against Duke.
Anyone want to bet that the streak hits 12 games?

02/12/06 UMass @ Florida State - Tallahassee, Fla. FSN (XM 192) 5:30 PM
FSU still has realistic NCAA dreams. They can't afford to lose games like this. Lose to UMass at home and you don't deserve an NCAA bid, period.

02/12/06 North Carolina @ Miami - Coral Gables, Fla. FSN (XM 191) 8:00 PM
Hmm, this is an interesting one. Miami sort of exposed UNC a few weeks ago up in Chapel Hill, but since then the Heels have adjusted and improved. Meanwhile, Miami has also done pretty well, with the exception of the beating they took in Charlottesville. They haven't convinced me they are for real yet though. I like the talent, but I don't like the schemes (and I'm being generous with that word). I wonder if the Hurricanes wouldn't actually be better without Guillermo Diaz? He's the kind of talented player who has a game that ruins his teammates' games.

I say the Heels take the lessons they learned from Duke the other night and apply them in a road win over the Canes. If that does happen, look for Miami to drop three in a row (the two after UNC are Duke and BC on the road). This is not a team that I think will react well to a three-game skid.