Dave Sez

ACC Review - 12/22/2006

We're just now coming out exam period for most schools, so it's been a pretty thin week of games. Teams either barely played or played weak teams, worried that their players wouldn't be at their best. Do you think Dave Leitao wishes he had followed this prescription and stayed home instead of taking his team to Puerto Rico? The Cavs couldn't have had a worst tournament down there.

Wednesday, Dec. 13
Maryland 101, UMKC 50

A little scrimmage before exams. Hope the Kangaroos enjoyed their trip east.

DePaul 78, Wake 63

Who didn't see this coming? Wake had already lost two straight, so it probably wasn't a good time to take a road trip, even to play a mediocre DePaul team. Well, the Demon Deacons were just what the Blue Demons needed. They thumped Wake up and down the court.

Now is the point where Skip Prosser needs to be very careful with this team. They completely imploded last year and then their three best players graduated. This squad is inexperienced and the guys who DO have experience probably have shaky confidence. A losing streak at this point of the season could easily put this team into a tailspin. Maybe Skip needs to dig into his Shakespeare anthology and find just the right quote.

The Big East is now up 6-2 on the ACC.

Saturday, Dec. 16
UNC 93, UNCA 62

Did you see that 7'7" dude on Asheville? Damn, he made Tyler Hansbrough look like a toy. Unfortunately for coach Eddie Biedenbach, which you can't teach height, you also can't teach coordination. When the giant came in, freshman Brandan Wright got fouled attacking the basket, had two dunks and then got fouled again. Maybe that's why a guy that big is playing at UNC-A and not UNC. It was interesting to see the Bulldogs put two seven-footers on the floor though. When's the last time you saw that in college?

UVa 91, Hampton 69
N.C. State 80, Mount St. Mary's 65
Miami 89, Stetson 64

Ho, Hum and Hummer.

Sunday, Dec. 17
BC 101, Sacred Heart 68

Wouldn't you hate to play sports for a school named "Sacred Heart." How tough can you feel with that on your jersey? Are their games shown on Lifetime?

Va. Tech 63, Wake 60

This was one of those games that both teams could be either happy or disappointed with. For the Hokies, they probably would rather have not had such trouble with the league's worst team at home. But then, a win's a win and Tech has had a hard time getting wins the past year and a half.

For the Deacons, given that they had lost their previous three, coming close in an ACC road game was probably encouraging. Except for the fact that they lost. Four in a row now. Danger, Skip Prosser! Danger!

Monday, Dec. 18
FSU 81, High Point 64

Have I made fun of FSU's schedule yet? It looks like they are following the Clemson blueprint. Check out this stretch of six games - Stetson, Georgia State, SE Louisiana, High Point (the best team in this group, mind you) and St. Peter's. And earlier they already played McNeese State and New Orleans. I guess FSU has a new plan for getting off that bubble!

Ga. Tech 92, Centenary 52
Even Robert Parrish couldn't have helped. The Yellow Jackets actually needed that one after losses in three of four games.

Tuesday, Dec. 19
Appalachian State 80, UVa 69

Wha? Oh uh. The sad thing is that UVA was never even in this game. The Mountaineers took it to them from the tip. A very bad sign for the Cavs (and of course it gets worse. Read on.).

Duke 79, Kent State 72

Kent State gave Duke quite a bit of trouble in this game. The Golden Flashes were well coached and their quickness on the perimeter seemed to give the Blue Devils fits. That's been their Achilles Heel for few years now and it doesn't look like they've solved the problem. What was particularly striking to me was how the aggressive on-the-ball pressure by Kent State pushed Duke's offense so far out. They did to Duke what the Blue Devils used to do to other teams.

On the flip side, Duke finally got what they need from Josh McRoberts. The big man took over in the second half, demanding the ball and making all the plays that Duke needed. If McRoberts keeps playing that way, the Blue Devils might actually live up to expectations. I just don't think he will.

UNC 105, Florida Atlantic 52

This score is actually not indicative of just how lopsided this game was. That's tough to say in a 53-point win.

Clem. 72, Georgia Southern 60
Wake 92, Gardner-Webb 60

No team in the ACC was more in need of an easy win. Sure Gardner-Webb is bad, but you have to build a positive attitude somehow.

Wednesday, Dec. 20
Utah 94, UVa 70

Wow! This might be the worst ACC loss of the year (well, until you read about the Miami game below). While Utah is a good program, this is not a good team and they beat the hell out of Virginia. The Utes shot well over 60% for the game and outrebounded the Cavs 33-18. Eighteen rebounds for the whole game.

Given how grumpy Dave Leitao can be, I can't imagine what the upcoming practices are going to be for this team. There's just no reason why they can beat an Arizona squad that's littered with NBA prospects and then get stomped in back-to-back games by App State and Utah. While the defense and rebounding were atrocious, the problem is not technical. They just aren't playing hard enough. You can't win at this level if you don't bust your ass, and that's regardless of who you're playing. Virginia better figure that out and soon or they could be hitching a ride on the tail flaps of Wake Forest's plummeting plane.

Alabama 82, N.C. State 75

State got thumped for most of the game by a better team, but put on a very nice rally in the last couple of minutes to scare the Crimson Tide. This Wolfpack team may not win a ton of games, but they are going to win a lot of hearts.

Binghamton 79, Miami 74

Good god. Binghamton? Binghamton? Binghamton couldn't beat Long Island, Colgate or Rider, but they are better than an ACC team. That's embarrassing. Humiliating, even. At what point will the rest of the world acknowledge what I've been saying, which is that Frank Haith is a bad coach? He's still young and might yet learn to master this job, but right now he's failing and the ACC is a brutal league to try to learn in.

Thursday, Dec. 21
UVa 59, Mayaguez 52

If the Utah loss wasn't the ACC's worst of the year, this was probably the worst win. 59 points and a seven-point win against a Division II team? What are the odds that there are some 5 AM practices in the Cavaliers' future?

VT 80, Seton Hall 61

Hey, I can finally write something positive! This was a very good win for the Hokies, beating a Big East team on the road (sort of). While Seton Hall isn't a top-tier team, they had only lost once before last night. It looks like Tech has figured out just why they lost those three earlier games. The ACC gets one back to make it 3-6 against the Big East.

(BTW, while looking back at Tech's season at Ken Pomeroy's site, I noticed that the Hokies beat App State a few weeks ago 69-37! Think some Hokie fans might want to bring that up when they run across their Cavalier friends over the holidays?)

FSU 78, Coastal Carolina 65

Maybe next year, FSU can try to play Southeast Coastal Carolina.

Duke 61, Gonzaga 54

Duke's best game of the year. They had other good wins against Indiana and Air Force, but last night was the first time that the Blue Devils looked like a complete team. McRoberts did his typical a-little-of-everything thing, but the whole package worked because Greg Paulus finally played a great game. It's amazing what a difference good point guard play makes.

As for Gonzaga, I was thinking again last night just how amazing that program is. They lost Adam Morrison from last year, the nation's leading scorer and arguably the nation's best player. He would have been an all-time great at any school in the country. At a mid-major, he'd be the stuff of legend. Losing him would hurt any team, but should cripple a team from a conference like the West Coast Conference. But not Gonzaga. They lose Morrison and keep right on rolling. And they lost Ronny Turiaf the year before that. And going back, Richie Frahm and Dan Dickau. Sometimes it's hard to appreciate something while it's actually happening, but Gonzaga's building a first-tier program is really incredible.

Well, that's probably it from me for a couple of weeks. I'll be traveling for the holidays so my posting opportunities will be rare. I hope everyone has a safe and merry Christmas. If you don't celebrate Christmas, enjoy the free vacation!

You Down With PPP?

Last week, one of my readers (Professor Matt) sent me and then published a very interesting spreadsheet. He had calculated a set of temp-free statistics for all the ACC teams as of about a week ago.

The gist of temp-free statistical analysis is that you can look at how efficient teams are on both offense and defense. The more standard methods that most people look at for measuring a team's offensive or defensive prowess is points scored or points allowed. That's a crappy way to do it. Teams that give up the fewest points typically do that not because they are great on defense, although they might be, but because they are extremely deliberate on offense. The easiest way to keep your opponent from scoring is to not give them the ball. The same goes on offense. If you play a pressure defense that forces short possessions (layups or turnovers), you'll get the ball a lot and score a lot. That doesn't mean you're any good at offense, just that you play it a lot.

So enter the tempo-free stats with measures like points-per-possession (PPP) and Effective FG% (eFG). To see what Matt generated, check out the slick Google Spreadsheet.

One note - Ken Pomeroy computes some similar statistics, but in a different way. Pomeroy actually goes one step beyond this and factors in the tempo and efficiency of a team's opponents. Obviously, these numbers are a little trickier to compute, but they are fun to play with. It's like porn for geeks.

But back to Matt's numbers. His spreadsheet contains all of the data, but I'll highlight the money columns here:

	PPP	Opp. PPP	PPP Margin	eFG	Opp. eFG	eFG Margin	TO%	Opp. TO%	TO% Margin
Boston College	1.09	0.93	0.16	0.508	0.445	0.063	0.208	0.219	-0.011
Clemson	1.12	0.85	0.27	0.543	0.449	0.094	0.210	0.257	-0.048
Duke	1.05	0.80	0.26	0.537	0.405	0.132	0.264	0.253	0.011
Florida State	1.06	0.91	0.15	0.544	0.492	0.053	0.236	0.279	-0.043
Georgia Tech	1.14	1.00	0.14	0.563	0.521	0.042	0.221	0.226	-0.005
Maryland	1.04	0.86	0.19	0.527	0.411	0.116	0.239	0.251	-0.012
Miami	1.14	0.95	0.18	0.533	0.491	0.042	0.205	0.215	-0.010
NC State	1.10	0.98	0.12	0.553	0.487	0.066	0.186	0.193	-0.007
North Carolina	1.17	0.95	0.22	0.559	0.503	0.057	0.198	0.215	-0.016
Virginia	1.15	0.95	0.19	0.517	0.453	0.064	0.200	0.190	0.009
Virginia Tech	1.10	0.83	0.27	0.528	0.444	0.084	0.179	0.281	-0.102
Wake Forest	1.09	1.05	0.04	0.545	0.542	0.003	0.216	0.218	-0.002

A few things that jump out (and remember, the season is young and these teams have played a lot of patsies):

• As you might have guessed, UNC has the best offense in the ACC. What these stats don't show you is that Carolina's tempo increases their advantage on that end of the floor.


• Virginia has a surprisingly efficient offense. That really surprised me since they really only have two above-average offensive players and several who are clearly below average. Just goes to show what good guard play can do for you.


• Duke and Maryland have the worse offenses in the league. Duke's problems have been well-publicized, but I was a bit surprised to see the Terps so low.


• On the flip side, the Dukies have the best defense in the league. Again, that's no surprise. In fact, their D is so effective that even with the second-worst offense, Duke has the second best PPP Margin and the best eFG Margin in the league. So maybe I've been a bit to bearish on their future.


• The flip side of that coin is that Virginia Tech and Clemson are tied for the best PPP Margin. In both cases, the teams have been helped greatly by weak schedules, but it's odd that the three-loss Hokies would still rate so well. A large part of the Hokies' statistical success so far seems to be the turnovers they are forcing. If they can keep that up against ACC teams, they might just meet their preseason expectations.


• Only two teams, Duke and Virginia have positive turnover margins (and positive is bad). For Duke, we know it's because their point guard play has been so poor this year. The UVA number is shocking though, since they have the best point guard in the league and one of the top two-guards. The problem for the Cavs is that they force so few turnovers. They might want to address that and see if they can't get a few more free possessions.


• Want to know why the Yellow Jackets have stumbled and the Deacons just suck? Look at their defense! Their defensive eFGs are by far the worst in the league. What in the name of Dave Odom has happened in Winston-Salem?

So what do you see in the numbers?

The Huggins Way

Sometimes I miss a story and report on it a bit late. In this case, I'm waaaay late. This happened last March, but I just heard about it.

You are probably aware of the occasional practice of college coaches hiring the fathers of big-time recruits as "assistant coaches." It's shady, but it happens. The most famous case is Larry Brown hiring Danny Manning's father who was working at the time as a truck driver. And of course, here in the ACC, that's how Dean Smith landed Scott Williams, Roy's son.

Well, leave it Bob Huggins to take this questionable practice to a whole new level. Shortly after he was hired at Kansas State, Huggins hired Dalonte Hill who is very tight with top-five recruit Michael Beasley. The twist? Hill was already employed at Charlotte and Beasley had already "committed" to playing there. Of course, Beasley then changed his mind and is now headed to Manhattan to play for Huggy Bear. Needless to say, Beasley was the best prospect Charlotte had ever signed and now he's gone.

To make the story even better, Charlotte coach Bobby Lutz was a friend of Huggins' and had stuck up for him shortly after Huggins was run out of Cincinnati.

What a guy.

ACC Basketball Review - 12/12/06

It's been a while since I went through the ACC games, so I'll be pretty brief on most of these.

Wednesday, Nov. 22
Providence 73, BC 64
UVa 81, UNC Asheville 65
Gonzaga 82, UNC 74
UCLA 88, Ga. Tech 73

The first bad day of the ACC season, with three teams going down. The Carolina game was particularly interesting because it was the first game to show that they're having some adjustment problems mixing in all of the new freshmen. Tyler Hansbrough was suspiciously inactive, seeming to defer to Brandan Wright. I think he learned his lesson though. The UNC offense must go through Hansbrough no matter how talented the other players are.

Thursday, Nov. 23
Western Michigan 71, Va. Tech 68

Ouch.

Friday, Nov. 24
Maryland 81, High Point 63
N.C. State 88, Gardner-Webb 76
Clemson 74, Charleston Southern 50
UNC 101, Tennessee 87

Nice recovery by the Heels. Tennessee wasn't ranked at this point, but they are a good team with a good coach.

Va. Tech 77, Montana 56
Pitt 88, FSU 66

The Big East has been pounding the ACC so far this year.

Saturday, Nov. 25
Miami 98, Lafayette 66
BC 86, Rhode Island 68
Wake 88, App. State 78
Duke 75, Davidson 47

Nothing really of note here other than to point out that BC took a step towards getting back on track.

Sunday, Nov. 26
UVa 104, UMES 63
Southern Illinois 69, Va. Tech 64

The Hokies were supposed to be good this year, right? They returned just about everyone and last year was an aberration because of all the off-court turmoil. So what's going on? In fairness, Southern Illinois is actually pretty good. In fact, the MVC is the second rated conference in the RPI right now (standard disclaimer - I don't like the RPI, but thought this stat was noteworthy).

Monday, Nov. 27
N.C. State 74, Michigan 67

And now the ACC-Big Ten "Challenge" gets under way. I already covered this game here.

Tuesday, Nov. 28
Maryland 72, Illinois 66
Wisconsin 81, FSU 66
GT 77, Penn State 73
Duke 54, Indiana 51
Northwestern 61, Miami 59

A very nice night for the ACC! More about it here.

Wednesday, Nov. 29
BC 65, Michigan State 58
VT 69, Iowa 65
Purdue 61, UVa 59
UNC 98, Ohio State 89
Clemson 90, Minnesota 68

And the ACC wraps up the win. More here.

Air Force 94, Wake 58

Holy crap! Read that score again! Now, losing to Air Force, especially at their place - it's a long trip and at high altitude - but losing by nearly 40 points? Damn. Keep in mind though, as I wrote here when Duke played them, Air Force is actually really good. They now have three 30+ wins over teams from major conferences. I think if their jerseys said "Big State U" instead of "Air Force," they'd be in the top 10 right now. You do NOT want to see this team in the NCAA tourney.

Saturday, Dec. 2
UNC 75, Kentucky 63
Clemson 74, South Carolina 53
Georgia 87, Wake 86

And the ACC-SEC Challenge gets under way! Wouldn't it be nice if that were actually true? Instead, we just have to settle for scheduling quirks like this. Two very good wins for the ACC and actually a pretty good loss for a reeling Wake team. Overall at this point, the ACC is 5-1 against the SEC on the season. More games to come.

Duke 61, Georgetown 52

This was a nice win for Duke. Remember, the Blue Devils lost to G-town last year, and this year's squad isn't as good as the Redick-Williams team. Offense is still a major weakness though, particularly the continued soft play of supposed All-American Josh McRoberts.

BC 84, UMass 73

Sunday, Dec. 3
UVa 67, N.C. State 62

And the conference season kicks off! UVA won the game, but I was actually more impressed with NC State. Without Engin Atsur, they were shorthanded, but gave the Cavs all they could handle. This game was one shot from going the other way. State fans have reason for optimism as the Wolfpack appeared to have four of the best six players on the floor.

For the Cavs, they need to get JR Reynolds and Sean Singletary going. Both are too passive early on. Clearly Singletary is trying to get his teammates involved early, but he needs to learn that he do that while still being aggressive. There's nothing I hate more than seeing a point guard bring the ball up to the top of the key, pass the ball to the wing and then just stand there and watch. That just kills an offense. You have to penetrate or at least cut after you make that pass. When you stand still, the defense can just settle in. Virginia is dangerous when Singletary is pushing the tempo and a threat to drive at any time. Without that, Reynolds isn't good enough to find his own seams in the defense and there's no one else on the team who can create his own shot. Hopefully Dave Leitao is working on that.

GW 63, VT 62

Oof. Is it too early to declare that the Hokies ain't going dancing this year?

Miami 90, GT 82

The second ACC game and the first surprise! This GT loss is actually a dark harbinger of poor games to come. Fortunately the opposite can't be said of Miami.

FSU 70, Florida 66

Woo! I never would have guessed this one. That Florida team is just ridiculously good, but evidently they have some apathy issues. They are a bit too content. This was a huge win for the perpetual bubble-dwelling Seminoles. You'll hear about this win in March. 6-1 ACC.

Notre Dame 81, Md 74

Talk about your up and down days for the ACC. The Domers had lost to the only half-decent team they'd played (Butler) while Maryland was looking like a sleeper. Well, I guess the Terps haven't really fixed everything. This loss makes the ACC just 2-4 against the Big East.

Tuesday, Dec. 5
FSU 82, Stetson 63
Clemson 90, Wofford 66

Yawn. Why does Clemson play so many crappy teams? At least they have a few decent non-conference games this year (MSU, South Carolina, Georgia), but man do they play a lot of cupcakes. Every year!

Wednesday, Dec. 6
BC 75, Fairfield 52
Duke 57, Holy Cross 45
VT 72, ODU 55

Hey, the Hokies got a win! And that's actually a decent win. ODU beat Georgetown earlier in the year.

West Virginia 71, N.C. State 60

Was I praising Sidney Lowe earlier? He only played six players in this game! And one of those only played eight minutes! Four different guys went the full 40 minutes. Sidney, Sidney, Sidney. That's just dumb. I don't care how bad your seventh and eighth best players are, they need to see the floor for a few minutes to give the other guys a rest. You just can't play 4/5 of your starting lineup for the whole game and expect them to make big plays at the end. This game was winnable, but the Pack just didn't have the legs late. And don't get me started on how they handled the Mountaineers 1-3-1 defense. It looked like State hadn't practiced against a 1-3-1 at all. I hope that isn't a blind spot from Lowe's NBA background.

2-5 against the Big East.

Maryland 79, Fordham 59

Thursday, Dec. 7
FSU 87, Georgia State 55

Here is the stretch of FSU opponents between Dec 5 and Dec 23 - Stetson, Georgia State, SE Louisiana, High Point, Coastal Carolina and St. Peters.

Impressive.

Saturday, Dec. 9
Duke 69, George Mason 53

That's the best I've seen Duke's offense play all year. And they scored 69 points. Josh McRoberts had just seven. This team has serious problems.

Miami 79, Lehigh 58
Vanderbilt 73, Ga. Tech 64

What happened to the Yellow Jackets? They were on top of the world a couple of weeks ago and now have three losses in four games. I guess the freshmen aren't infallible. 6-2 against the SEC.

UNC 94, High Point 69
N.C. State 74, Savannah State 53

Again, Lowe uses only six players (OK, a seventh played one minute). If you can't use your bench against Savannah State, when are you going to use it? I think he's taking a dangerous gamble here. Keep running the guys that much and they might break down when they start losing games. Remember the Vince Lombardi quote, "fatigue makes cowards of us all."

Sunday, Dec. 10
FSU 88, SE Louisiana 62
VT 69 Appalachian State 37
BC 73, Maryland 62

This was a good game. BC seems to have put things back together and Maryland is now not quite so confident. Just like with Georgia Tech, the freshmen are going to be up and down and the point guards who are so critical to the Terps combined for 11 points (on 4-16 shooting), 5 assists and 6 turnovers.

For the Eagles, Jared Dudley is making his case for best player in the conference right now. It's basically a two-man contest at this point between Dudley and Hansbrough.

Monday, Dec. 11
Miss. State 70, Miami 52

6-3 ACC. That was quite a thumping on the Hurricane's home court. This Miami team looks like one that will frustrate fans all year. They have good players, but are not a good team very often. With three losses already to teams ranked 100+ and a 18-point home loss to the only top-30 team they've played, there's plenty of evidence that it's going to be a long season in Coral Gables.

BrightCar

And now for something completely different ...

Way back about three years ago when I started this site, my goal was to find an outlet for my sports passion. I didn't have many kindred souls at work to have water-cooler chats with and I was bored with what I'd found online. There were (and are) many great sports communities, but the partisanship always turned me off. I couldn't find a good, neutral place to discuss sports that were interesting to me (mainly ACC sports, but not exclusively), so I tried to create one. It hasn't really grown into a very big community, but at least I do have somewhere to dump my sports thoughts and interesting links I come across.

But there was another reason. Burnout. You see, I had (and still have) been working nights and weekends on a side project and had hit the proverbial wall. All but one of the guys who had started with me had dropped out and a few more joined to fill the ranks and then they dropped out. So I needed a diversion from my diversion. Dave Sez was it.

My initial diversion didn't go away. I recharged my batteries and kept plugging along, finding time after "real" work and family duties until finally I (we) got to this point. We are now ready to pull the blanket off our project and show it to the world. BrightCar is ready.

What the hell is BrightCar, you ask? Well, it's an idea I had many years ago when I realized that I wasn't maintaining my car very well. I'm a smart, responsible guy and getting regular oil changes and tire rotations and whathaveyou seems pretty straightforward, but yet I couldn't keep it straight. I was always late with my services and never felt comfortable that I was remembering everything. On top of that, I felt powerless against the high school dropout who'd show me a blackened thingy at Jiffy Lube and say it was time to get it replaced. Did I have that thingy replaced last time? Is it due again? Hell, I didn't know and figured that I should. So that was my idea - software that could keep track of what services I should be doing and tell me when they were due! It would not only keep the schedule (5,000 miles and 6 months), but accurately tell me when I'm due based on when I got my oil changed or brakes checked last time and how many miles I drive a week. Don't tell me (like my owner's manual does) that I need an oil change at exactly 45,000 miles when I just had it done at 42,567!

The idea sat in my head for years. It would pop up in my forebrain every now and then - it should be easy to use, like Quicken! It should track gas mileage and how much your car costs per mile! It should make perfect cinnamon toast and be kind to small animals!

After years of working for the man and getting nowhere, the idea finally jumped from being just an idea to being a plan. Then it became a project. A loooong project. And now, today, it's a company. It's still a side project to be sure - I'm not ready to quit my day job (yet) - but it's a real, honest-to-goodness company with a product for sale.

Needless to say, I'm pretty excited about it.

If you've read this far, I'm flattered and more than a little surprised. If you want to see what I and my brother-in-law have built, go check out www.BrightCar.com. Maybe you'd like to buy a copy for your spouse for Christmas! Or maybe get one for your teenage driver!

If you do make that choice, put in DaveSez for a coupon code and you'll get 20% off the price. You know, for reading this far.

State Steals O'Brien

I've had NC State's hiring of Boston College coach Tom O'Brien on my brain for a couple of days now. I've thought of tons of things I want to write about it, but I realize now that I'll never get all of that typed out. Instead, I'll just go through a few of my basic thoughts. Maybe I can flush them out more in the comments if folks want to start a conversation about it.

First off let me say that I think that O'Brien will improve State's program. They will play a more organized, more disciplined brand of football. They may not beat FSU quite as regularly, but they should be more consistent and successful than they were under Chuck Amato.

But I still don't like the hire.

The main reason I don't like it is simply that I don't believe in raiding a coach from another ACC school. It's tacky. It's unseemly. Before Frank Haith tried to be considered for NC State's basketball job last year, I thought there was an ACC rule against such hirings. Clearly there isn't, but there should be. It's just bad business for the conference.

I'm also not convinced that O'Brien is really what NC State fans want. It's a safe choice, but it's boring. O'Brien pretty much reached his ceiling at BC. It's a high ceiling to be sure - 8-9 wins a year - but I don't think Wolfpack fans will be content with that. Sure, they'd love to have 8 or 9 wins instead of 3 or 4, but what happens after they go 8-4, 9-3 and 8-4? They are going to want to take that next step. If you win 8 or 9 games, odds are you're coming in second or third in your division and just missing out on the championship. You're good, probably ranked, but not great. That's not the path that State fans started down a few years ago when they pumped enthusiasm and money into the goal of reaching the Promised Land of an elite program. Tom O'Brien doesn't look to me like a guy who can take a program to the 10-12 win plateau on any consistent basis.

Some will argue that TOB will raise his ceiling in Raleigh where he has better facilities, better fans and better recruits. Maybe. State fans may be extremely passionate and numerous, they can also be extremely negative and reactionary. In Boston, they like BC when it's good, but ignore it when it's not. Things don't work that way here.

As I wrote when O'Brien's name came up with the UNC job, I don't believe it's necessarily true that State has access to better recruits. Sure the south has more talent than the northeast, but there are also a ton more schools to fight for that talent. There are five 1-A schools just in this state and many more just across the borders. At BC, you pretty much have only Syracuse to compete with north of New York City. High school football may not be as good up there, but the quantity can compensate for the relative quality. Boston alone has more than half the population of the entire state of North Carolina.

There's no question that State has had more individual talent recently than BC, but a lot of that was due to Amato's Florida contacts. O'Brien has no such contacts (that I know of). In fact, assuming he keeps his coaching staff intact, and they've been together for a long time so it's likely, he will have to build his entire regional recruiting network from scratch. That's going to be tough, especially considering that Butch Davis just moved in over in Chapel Hill.

I would guess that State's talent level is going to drop off from the Amato years. Can O'Brien compensate for that? Yes, probably. To the tune of, oh I don't know, about 8-9 wins a year.

Dang, I'm Glad I'm Chris Rainey!

Another year, another funny recruiting scandal out of Florida. This time, it's University of Florida recruit Chris Rainey freely talking to a reporter about how folks around town give him free clothes and money. Poor kid had no idea what this reporter was about to do to his life. Good times.

Johnson? O'Brien? Bueller?

850 The Blog was reporting earlier today that things were heating up between Paul Johnson and NC State. Later, they updated it to say that now things were cooling and that maybe Tom O'Brien was leading the pack (get it?). The O'Brien thing strikes me as funny because despite having things rolling pretty nicely in Boston, he sure seems to be trying hard to get out. Evidently he lobbied for the Carolina job and now State.

As for Johnson, I've gone back and forth about whether I think he'd be good. I think I'm on the "no" side again. While I think he'd do well in the short term, I wonder how he could recruit against Butch Davis (and others) with that offense. Sure, he'd probably throw more at State than he does at Navy, but a leopard doesn't change his spots. You can win with run-based offense, but if recruits get the idea that what you're doing won't translate to the NFL, you're going to fight an uphill battle.

Frankly, I'm not overwhelmed by O'Brien either. He's proven to be a very good coach, sure, but he's pretty clearly defined his ceiling. BC is always good, but never the best. If you hire him, you can be sure your team will compete, but you can be pretty sure that you won't dominate. On the other hand, he's never had quite as much talent at BC as State has had. Maybe he'd win more with their talent. Or maybe the talent will start going to Chapel Hill instead.

We'll see ...

Filtering Out Vitale!

Considering his love of Duke, this is probably a bit ironic, but the guys at the Duke Basketball Report have done humanity a great service. They have posted tips on how to watch a college basketball game on ESPN with sound, but without Dick Vitale. The catch is that you have to have to have a surround-sound system and be watching a broadcast that has the sound in 5.1 surround sound. As they mention, that might require HD.

If there were ever a good argument to give the wife for why you just have to have HD and surround sound in the family room, this is it!

Calhoun Is An Ass, Chapter 73

I don't know how I missed this story. I only heard about from my brother-in-law so Googled it to see what's up. I can't believe what I found. After UConn's opening game of the season, against mighty Quinnipiac University, Jim Calhoun ranted to the press about how Quinnipiac had the gall to use a zone defense. Evidently Quinnipiac used that zone to some success, nearly knocking off the Huskies before losing 53-46.

Of course it's extremely odd and distasteful for a coach to bitch about another coach merely for using a common tactic (zone defense? No way!), but the part that really caught my eye was that Calhoun basically said that he was under the impression that Quinnipiac would not be playing a zone.

Wait a minute! How did Calhoun know what Quinnipiac had planned?

Think about the situation. Connecticut playing Quinnipiac amounts to little more than an exhibition game. Quinnipiac has no real hope of winning, they are just there to get some experience and collect a paycheck. UConn's goal is to dispatch their foes early and work on various aspects of their offense and defense. It's a chance to get ready for the "real" games later in the year. That's fine. All teams do it. You need some cupcakes in the schedule. But the games do count. They are official. So why is it that Calhoun somehow "knew" that Quinnipiac was going to be playing exclusively man-to-man and why would he get so upset if things didn't work out that way? Surely there was no agreement before the game, right? There couldn't have been, because that would be a serious problem. That's the kind of thing that brings the feds in, just like players shaving points or throwing games.

Now, if you read Calhoun's quote, he doesn't say there was an agreement:

He said he wasn't going to change anything ... all he did was go 1-3-1, 2-3 matchup and so on. That's fine, gamesmanship is great. But I just thought it was a (expletive) thing to do to be honest with you. You don't do that. That's the only thing that irritated me a little bit. He made a big deal to tell all you guys that he was going to play the way he plays.

He makes it sound like there was some pregame press conference where Quinnipiac coach Joe DiSantis said he was going to play man. But do they really have pregame press conferences up there? And Calhoun regularly watches them looking for tips on how to play his opponent. When that opponent is Quinnipiac?

I don't know, maybe I'm reading into something that's not there, but it just sounds very fishy to me. I wonder if DiSantis also coaches any hot recruits that Calhoun is looking at?

Wake Forest!!

Holy crap! I never thought I'd live to see the day when Wake Forest was named ACC Football Champion. Hell, I never thought about it period, especially not in a conference with Florida State, Miami and Virginia Tech. I mean, are you kidding me? Wake Forest? It's just crazy. Keep your eye out for clouds of locusts or wildmen on horseback.

In keeping with the rest of the ACC season, Wake's 9-6 victory over Georgia Tech in Dr. Pepper ACC Championship was horrendously ugly. 60 minutes, five field goals. As written at Deadspin - "Somewhere, Mr. Pibb is laughing his ass off." This was no ESPN Instant Classic. It was an instant "Delete This Program" choice on the TiVo. That game had no alibi; it was ugly. Unless, of course, you're a Wake Forest fan like myself. Come to think of it, I bet just about all of the ACC was rooting for the Deacons today. I've never heard so many positive comments about a team that just beat you as I heard this year about Wake. It seemed that every vanquished fan base just quietly jumped about the Deacon wagon. They were like Alexander rolling through Persia. They conquered you and then enlisted you.

Will Wake get destroyed by Louisville in the Orange Bowl? Probably. But so what, it's Wake Forest in the freaking Orange Bowl! I need to type that again. Wake Forest is going to play in the Orange Bowl. The mind reels.

Go Deacs!

Grobe Staying Put?

The iron couldn't be hotter. Jim Grobe had (is having) a legendary year at Wake Forest, he was unanimously voted the ACC Coach of the Year and first-tier jobs Alabama and Miami have opened up. Now is the time for Jim Grobe to cash in on the hard work he's done building a program at Wake (and previously at Ohio). But the thing is, Grobe says he's staying. He's made it pretty clear that he has no desire to leave Wake Forest.

How about that?

On one hand, while I'm happy for Wake, I'm disappointed for Grobe. I mean, he's a great coach and by all accounts, he's a great guy. The media loves him because he's friendly, intelligent and sincere without any of that standard coach's veneer. He doesn't schmooze or belittle the media and they love him for it. Shouldn't this guy get a shot at the bigtime? He's winning at Wake Forest, one of the most difficult jobs in all of college football, and he's doing it this year despite a series of injuries at critical positions. The man can flat out coach and should get a chance to try his skills at the very highest level. Wouldn't it be interesting to see what he could do with the talent of an Alabama or Miami? Just imagine what his running schemes could do if his team were not only smarter and better-coached, but bigger and stronger than their opposition. It would be scary.

On the other hand, maybe he's doing the right thing. We instinctively think that coaches should want to trade up, but maybe Grobe is outsmarting us all. Think about it - how many college football coaches get to gracefully end their career? Who retires on their own schedule? Practically no one, that's who. Almost everyone ends up getting fired in the end. The only way around it is to win so much and for so long that you earn Bobby Bowden or George Welsh-type Coach Emeritus status. And very, very few coaches achieve that. Jim Grobe is one of the few to have that chance. I mean, is Wake Forest ever going to hire a better coach? They kept the incredibly mediocre Jim Caldwell for eight years! (BTW, did you know Caldwell is the QB coach for the Indianapolis Colts? I had no idea until l just Googled him.) Just getting Wake to the ACC Championship has probably earned him at least five more no-questions-asked years. If he wins tomorrow, and I think that's highly likely, I think that will damn near earn him lifetime tenure.

Think about. He could leave for Alabama - and they are interested, or were before he made these statements - and fight for his job every single week. You beat Auburn? Great, now beat Tennessee. You won a national championship? Great, now do it again. Bear Bryant would win three in a row with these players. Or he could stay at Wake, a great small school where he is imminently appreciated and have himself a nice, long career that ends when he wants.

Maybe Jim Grobe is even smarter than I thought.

ACC Futbol

It's been a crappy year for the ACC on the gridiron, but not on the pitch. The ACC has long been dominant in college soccer, particularly women's soccer, and that tradition continues. The men and women both have their Final Four, or College Cup as they call it, this weekend. The ACC put two teams in each - UNC (of course) and Florida State in the women's tourney and UVA and Wake Forest for the men. Man, Wake is having quite a fall, huh?

What's really cool about this is that ESPN is airing two of the semifinal games and the championships. The UNC-UCLA women's game is on ESPN2 at 3:30 and the UVA-UCLA men's game is on ESPN2 at 6. The women's finals are on ESPN2 Sunday at 12:30. The men are on the same channel at 3 p.m. Set your TiVo! Hopefully those Sunday tilts will be all-ACC contests!